Small Craft Advisory 63, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
243 PM PDT WED MAR 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SPOTTY RAIN THIS
WEEKEND. WETTER WEATHER IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN STUBBORNLY LINGERING ACROSS
THE NORTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SHOULD DIE OFF BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE CLOSER TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT
INLAND FRIDAY WITH A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IT
SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS WARMING A FEW MORE
DEGREES.

THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS SOME RAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE.
THE DRIER ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE PREFERRED FOR NOW. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AND INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE WEATHER SHOWERY MONDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND AND HOW FAST SHOWERS WILL TAPER.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY BUT IT
COULD BE A DIRTY RIDGE WITH STILL A CHANCE OF RAIN. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...NW FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED CU AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON
THE ATX RADAR WILL DRY UP AND SKIES ACROSS WRN WA TONIGHT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG BY DAYBREAK THU...MAINLY RIVER
VALLEYS AND AROUND OLYMPIA.

KSEA...THE CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH FAIR SKIES TONIGHT
AND A NE BREEZE. MOSTLY SUNNY THU.

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THU AND FRI WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EASTERLIES LIKELY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT LATE THURSDAY THRU FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML