Small Craft Advisory 53, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
318 PM PST THU MAR 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...OFF AND ON WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT FOR A RELATIVE LULL IN THE RECENT WET WEATHER. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ONTO THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO GET HELD UP ALONG THE COAST MOST OF THE DAY AS AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE DIGS OFFSHORE AND BACKS THE FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH RAIN INTO THE INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH RAIN
FOR ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE SHOWERY IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA.

BESIDES ALL THE RAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IT WILL BE BREEZY TO
WINDY AT TIMES. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDIEST PERIOD WITH
ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE FOR THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR. THERE
WILL ALSO BE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...4500-5000
FEET...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MAJOR PASSES. THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD RECEIVE ADVISORY AMOUNT LATER FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY WILL SEE RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH NO
ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
STEADIER RAIN AGAIN. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE FRONT COULD
HANG UP OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FOR A POSSIBLE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SITUATION. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WASHINGTON WITH AN
UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A VIGOROUS
PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND
INLAND FRIDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...VFR CEILINGS WITH LOCALLY MVFR IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR WITH THE FRONT.

KSEA...VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH 020-030 CEILINGS POSSIBLE
WITH SHOWERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 16 KT...EASING TO 4 TO 6
KT AROUND 06Z/10PM PST. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT GUSTING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT WORKS INLAND. CEILINGS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR WITH
THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN WA COASTAL WATERS
TODAY MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT.

THE DEVELOPING 984 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS
EXPECTED TO CURVE NORTHWARD TO ABOUT 300 NM OFF CAPE SCOTT TONIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES TO THE
COASTAL WATERS...THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS AS WELL AS THE ENTRANCES
TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THE GALE WATCHES FOR THESE AREAS HAVE
BEEN UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS. IN ADDITION TO WINDS...COMBINED SEAS
OF 15 TO 20 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

ANOTHER STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY IS CURRENTLY
HOLDING NEAR STEADY SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE RIVER TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RENEWED FLOODING
IS LIKELY ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN.

MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER NEXT WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. THE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT THEY
POINT TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING
LATER NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
     TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
     TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
     GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
     CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
     GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 6 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR EAST ENTRANCE
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR WEST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1218 PM PST THU MAR 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HAIL             1 NE BREMERTON          47.56N 122.69W
03/03/2016  M0.25 INCH       KITSAP             WA   COCORAHS

&&

GRUB