Small Craft Advisory 50, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST TUE MAR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE OVER SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
A FEW TSTMS THIS EVENING. BLUSTERY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THERE ARE WIND ADVISORIES UP FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. A DEEP LOW
CENTER IS OVER NRN VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON MOVING NE. AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE WLY SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT BECOME HEAVY IN THE CASCADES
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON WED
AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES WED EVENING. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING
A LITTLE PRECIP TO THE AREA THURSDAY BUT OVERALL THU AND THU NIGHT
WILL BE A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIP...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE ON
THE CLOUDY DRIPPY SIDE.

.LONG TERM...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS
WITH BREAKS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE 12Z GFS SHOWED A RUN OF THE MILL
FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY MORNING...A STRONGER SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AND YET ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY HAS A 974MB LOW CENTER THAT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
COASTAL OR NEAR OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH EASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND STABLE.

KSEA...CEILING GENERALLY 3000-5000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GALES TO MOST WATERS
TODAY. ADDITIONAL STRONG FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE RAIN IN THE SKOKOMISH RIVER BASIN COULD BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY BUT
WITH THE LEVEL TRACKING A BIT BELOW THE FORECAST IT LOOKS LESS
LIKELY THAN BEFORE. THE EXISTING FLOOD STAGE OF 16.5 FEET WILL
OFFICIALLY BE RAISED TO 17.0 FEET ON MARCH 6TH. ELSEWHERE...RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...WIND ADVISORY ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE	LOWLANDS.

     FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE WEST AND
      CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WHERE THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
151 PM PST TUE MAR 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST NW MOCLIPS              47.24N 124.22W
03/01/2016  M57 MPH          GRAYS HARBOR       WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JNEHER