Small Craft Advisory 45, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MORE RAIN ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW WITH SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA TUESDAY. THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING FOR
RAIN ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S OVERNIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE CASCADES SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN WA. ELSEWHERE WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK AS A
WEAK RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

RAIN WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVES. THE COAST WILL SEE RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN
SPREADING TO THE INTERIOR BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 2500 FT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT THE
PASSES. EXPECT DRIER WEATHER ON MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
AND THE FLOW FLIPS TO OFFSHORE. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ON
MON NGT...AND AN ENERGETIC UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON TUE.
IT WILL BEHAVE TYPICALLY AS IT WILL BE PRECEDED BY WARM ADVECTION
PRECIP AND E/SE GRADIENTS...THEN FOLLOWED BY POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATER TUE WITH A PICKUP IN SW GRADIENTS...WIND...AND LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS. HIGH PRES REBOUNDS QUICKLY ON WED...WITH SOME DRY WEATHER
LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING IS THE MAIN REASON FOR KEEPING A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE WED FORECAST...BUT SOME DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY
AROUND THAT TIME.

MODELS THEN AGREE AT DEVELOPING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OUT AROUND
150W FROM THU INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH. THIS SHOULD DIRECT
AN ACTIVE AND SOMETIMES STORMY SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE PAC
NW...WITH RAIN STARTING THU AND CONTINUING INTO FRI AND BEYOND.
HANER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SEDIMENTATION IN THE WHITE RIVER HAS REDUCED THE
RIVER'S ABILITY TO CARRY MODERATE FLOWS OF WATER WITHOUT CAUSING
FLOODING PROBLEMS NEAR PACIFIC. NO SIGNIFICANT FLOOD IMPACTS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT...BUT THE RIVER IS NEAR THE LEVEL
WHERE LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING
NORTHWESTERLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH. A SLOW MOVING WEAKENING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. CIGS
CURRENTLY VFR TO MVFR...WITH MVFR MORE LIKELY IN RAIN. CIGS EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO MVFR AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING BACK INTO VFR FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CURRENT VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR BY 06Z TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN AROUND 2K FT OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AM BEFORE
CLIMBING BACK TO VFR. RAIN REMAINING IN FORECAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MID-MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND 4-8 KT.
SMR

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE INTERIOR WATERS
TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WESTERLY SWELL
AROUND 10 FEET CONTINUE IN COASTAL WATERS...THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE COAST AND AT
THE WEST ENTRANCE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT THE EAST
ENTRANCE AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. A GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THOSE AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FLOW WILL BE LIGHT ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH GALES POSSIBLE WILL ARRIVE AROUND
TUESDAY. CHB/SMR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY OF PACIFIC IN
     PIERCE COUNTY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE.

     GALE WATCH COAST...EAST ENTRANCE...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS FOR
     SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

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