Small Craft Advisory 26, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
925 PM PST MON FEB 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS AND SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONT OFFSHORE IS SPLITTING...WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIP MOVING INTO SW OREGON AND NRN CALIF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A FRONT WED
AND WED NIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL SNOW WILL STAY BELOW PASS LEVEL WITH
THAT SYSTEM BUT THEN THE AIR MASS ALOFT WARMS CONSIDERABLY AND
SHOULD DRY OUT WITH SHOWERS ENDING ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AS ITS WARM FRONT
CLIPS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF WASHINGTON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. IT
SHOULD BRING WETTING RAIN TO THE LOWLANDS AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS...BUT IT DOES NOT LIKE AN IMPRESSIVE STORM FOR
FEBRUARY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL PROBABLY RISE TO 4000 TO 5000 FT AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN FALL TO AROUND 3000 FT AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUE MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT MOVES
ONSHORE. LIGHT WLY TONIGHT WILL TURN NWLY ON TUE. THE AIR MASS WILL
BE INCREASINGLY STABLE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

KSEA...SCATTERED LAYER AROUND 2500 FEET WITH A BROKEN LAYER 6000-
8000 FEET. LOW LEVELS WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH THE MID
LEVEL CEILINGS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR TONIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CASCADES ON TUE. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING
ONSHORE TUE EVENING. THE WEAK FRONT WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA STARTING EARLY TUE MORNING.

A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON WED AND PUSH
INLAND WED AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND OVER ALL OF THE INLAND WATERS
EXCEPT PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL WATERS WED...NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO REQUIRE THE
ISSUANCE OF A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER VIGOROUS
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FELTON/ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
     TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

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