Small Craft Advisory 11, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
925 AM PST SAT JAN 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WAS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A HANDFUL OF FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WA THIS
MORNING AND THE RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS AND SUNBREAKS TODAY.
THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN WA MIDDAY SUNDAY...IT LOOKS
PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE FRONT THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH HAS A MUCH DEEPER
PARENT LOW...BUT THE LOW STAYS FAR OFFSHORE AND TRACKS NORTH WEST
OF THE CHARLOTTES. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY EVENING...IT DOES
NOT LOOK TOO INTERESTING EITHER. NONE OF THESE FRONTS HAVE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION AND WIND SHIFTS BEHIND THEM SO THIS IS
A LITTLE BORING FOR THE MIDDLE OF WINTER.

.LONG TERM...THE 12Z GFS TIMES FRONTS FOR MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...AND THERE IS A 1000MB SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES ASHORE
OVER NW OREGON AROUND 18Z TUESDAY WITH THAT SYSTEM. ANOTHER FRONT
STRETCHES OUT AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ASHORE WED NITE OR THU MORNING
...THAT ONE LOOKS LIKE PRETTY DULL STUFF AND AGAIN FAILS TO HAVE
DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT OR A DECENT WIND SHIFT. YET ANOTHER
FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY...THAT HAS A DECENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT TRACKS TO THE CHARLOTTES BUT IT ANOTHER ONE OF THESE EL NINO
FRONTS THAT IS MILD AND LACKS DECENT WESTERLIES BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE CASCADES MIDDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST AND STABLE.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER NEAR 2000 FEET WITH AN OVERCAST LAYER AT
3000-4000 FEET THIS MORNING. LOWER LAYER WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE OVERCAST LAYER BECOMING BROKEN. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN
THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP
CEILINGS VFR INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

KSEA...FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY 18Z. CEILINGS NEAR 3000 FEET
IMPROVING TO 4000 FEET OR SO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING
TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS EASING LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INLAND WATERS
THIS MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT THE EAST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WILL EASE LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS WILL ALSO EASE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT INCREASING THIS MORNING WITH KOLM-KBLI UP TO PLUS 1.6 MB AT 17Z.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP OVER THE PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHEASTERLY GALES TO LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT REMAINING ON
TRACK WITH THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE MIDDAY SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE GOOD
POTENTIAL OF GALE FORCE WINDS THERE. OTHER WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHEAST WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TIDES ARE RUNNING AROUND A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL VALUES
IN THE INLAND WATERS FROM ABOUT PORT TOWNSEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AROUND HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON THIS MORNING.

WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENERGETIC NEAR 20 FT SEAS WITH PERIODS 20 TO 22
SECONDS REACHING THE WASHINGTON COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER A BIT OF A LULL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ANOTHER WAVE TRAIN WITH SEAS 20-23 FT AT 16-17
SECONDS HITS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE WASHINGTON
COAST.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK GIVING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
WATERS. GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOME WATERS...MAINLY THE
COASTAL WATERS...AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  FELTON/ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING ON THE FLOOD-PRONE
SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY FOR THE NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
	 FOR THE CASCADES.

	 COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TIL
	 NOON TODAY FOR THE SHORELINES BORDERING THE PUGET SOUND/
	 HOOD CANAL AND ADMIRALTY INLET.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL
	 4 AM MONDAY FOR THE COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MONDAY
	 FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
	 COASTAL WATERS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

	 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING WATERS.

     GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
	 FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

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