Alert archive / Washington / River Flood Warnings in 2016

River Flood Warning 26, NWS Seattle, WA

February 15, 2016Snohomish County, Washington

NWS Seattle, WA issued this river flood warning at Feb 15, 2016, 5:04 PM PST for Snohomish County, Washington. It took effect at Feb 15, 2016, 5:11 PM PST. It was in force for 18 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 15, 2016, 5:04 PM PST (01:04 UTC)
In effect from: Feb 15, 2016, 5:11 PM PST
Expired: Feb 16, 2016, 11:16 AM PST
In force: 18 hr
Issued by: NWS Seattle, WA
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

County Snohomish County, WA

The radar

The Seattle radar (KATX), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Pilchuck River near Snohomish (PILW1).

Action stage: 16 ft
Minor stage: 18 ft
Moderate stage: 20 ft
Major stage: 22 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 12155300, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

971 
WGUS46 KSEW 160104
FLWSEW
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
504 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

...The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a flood warning
for the following rivers in Washington...

  Pilchuck R nr Snohomish affecting Snohomish County.

.Flood Bulletin No. 9

Heavy rain over the central Cascades last night and this morning will
cause minor flooding on the Pilchuck River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars...vans...or trucks through flooded areas...this is 
the cause of most flood related deaths in Washington. Be alert for 
rapid changes and monitor developments by listening to NOAA Weather 
radio or other local media.

&&

WAC061-161004-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0026.160216T0111Z-160216T1916Z/
/PILW1.1.ER.160216T0111Z.160216T0259Z.160216T1016Z.NO/
504 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Pilchuck R nr Snohomish
* until Tuesday morning.
* At  4:45 PM Monday the stage was 17.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage around 5 PM Monday
  and crest near 18.4 feet around 7 PM Monday. The river will fall 
  below flood stage early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...the Pilchuck River spills out of its 
  banks...flooding residences and roads in low lying areas along the 
  river from Granite Falls downstream through the Lake Stevens area 
  and Snohomish. This includes areas around Sexton Rd. and Orchard 
  Ave in Snohomish.

&&

LAT...LON 4805 12192 4803 12196 4789 12204 4792 12216 4810 12207
      4815 12197       

$$

3 follow-up statements

740 
WGUS86 KSEW 160125
FLSSEW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
525 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skykomish River near Gold Bar affecting Snohomish County.
  Snohomish River near Monroe affecting Snohomish County.
  Snohomish River at Snohomish affecting Snohomish County.
  Tolt River near Carnation affecting King County.
  Snoqualmie River near the Falls affecting King County.
  Snoqualmie River near Carnation affecting King County.
  Pilchuck R nr Snohomish affecting Snohomish County.

.Flood Bulletin No. 10

                Central West Region

Upper reaches of the Skykomish and Snoqualmie Rivers have crested. Lower
reaches are still rising. Mostly minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars...vans...or trucks through flooded areas...this is 
the cause of most flood related deaths in Washington. Be alert for 
rapid changes and monitor developments by listening to NOAA Weather 
radio or other local media.

&&

WAC061-160925-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-160217T0600Z/
/GLBW1.2.ER.160215T1319Z.160215T2115Z.160216T1800Z.NO/
525 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Skykomish River near Gold Bar
* Until Tuesday evening.
* At  4:30 PM Monday the stage was 16.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river crested at 17.1 feet at 1 PM Monday and will 
  continue to fall to below flood stage Tuesday late morning.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...the Skykomish River will cause minor 
  flooding of low pasture lands and some roads along the river...
  including Ben Howard road...Index-Galena Rd and Tualco Loop Rd.  A 
  stage of 16 feet on the Skykomish River corresponds to a Phase 3 in
  the Snohomish County flood program.

&&

LAT...LON 4774 12150 4780 12173 4780 12196 4793 12197 4794 12169
      4787 12147       

$$

WAC061-160925-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-160217T1006Z/
/MROW1.1.ER.160216T0026Z.160216T0600Z.160216T2206Z.NO/
525 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Snohomish River near Monroe
* From 4 PM Monday until late Tuesday night.
* At  4:00 PM Monday the stage was 14.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage around 4 PM Monday
  and crest near 15.9 feet around 10 PM Monday. The river will fall 
  below flood stage Tuesday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...the Snohomish River will cause minor 
  flooding of low pasture lands and several roads near the river.  A 
  stage of 15 feet at this location corresponds to Phase 2 in the 
  Snohomish County Flood Warning System.

&&

LAT...LON 4780 12190 4779 12212 4786 12217 4791 12203 4793 12202
      4793 12190       

$$

WAC061-160924-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-160218T0209Z/
/SNAW1.2.ER.160215T2303Z.160216T1500Z.160217T1109Z.NO/
525 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Snohomish River at Snohomish
* Until Wednesday evening.
* At  5:00 PM Monday the stage was 25.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to rise and crest near 27.7 feet
  around 7 AM Tuesday. The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 27.0 feet...the Snohomish River will flood several 
  roads...including the Snohomish-Monroe highway...and low areas of 
  the lower Snohomish valley that are not protected by levees.  A 
  stage of 27 feet on the Snohomish River corresponds roughly to a 
  Phase 2 in the Snohomish County flood program.

&&

LAT...LON 4786 12217 4789 12221 4796 12232 4809 12216 4794 12213
      4791 12203       

$$

WAC061-160924-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-160216T1916Z/
/PILW1.1.ER.160216T0122Z.160216T0259Z.160216T1016Z.NO/
525 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pilchuck R nr Snohomish
* From 5 PM Monday until Tuesday morning.
* At  5:15 PM Monday the stage was 17.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage around 5 PM Monday
  and crest near 18.4 feet around 7 PM Monday. The river will fall 
  below flood stage early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...the Pilchuck River spills out of its 
  banks...flooding residences and roads in low lying areas along the 
  river from Granite Falls downstream through the Lake Stevens area 
  and Snohomish. This includes areas around Sexton Rd. and Orchard 
  Ave in Snohomish.

&&

LAT...LON 4805 12192 4803 12196 4789 12204 4792 12216 4810 12207
      4815 12197       

$$

WAC033-160924-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-160217T0633Z/
/TOLW1.1.ER.160215T2018Z.160216T1200Z.160216T2133Z.NO/
525 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tolt River near Carnation
* From 12 PM Monday until Tuesday evening.
* At  3:15 PM Monday the flow was 4625 cfs.
* Flood flow is 5000 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Impact...At 5000 cfs...the Tolt River will flood Tolt River Rd NE 
  and many driveways. Some homes in the San Souci area could be 
  inaccessible due to deep and quick flood waters. This river level 
  on the Tolt corresponds to a phase 3 flood in the King County flood
  system.

&&

LAT...LON 4768 12176 4761 12185 4761 12194 4767 12196 4771 12189
      4774 12184       

$$

WAC033-160924-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-160216T1621Z/
/SQUW1.1.ER.160215T1055Z.160215T1830Z.160216T0721Z.NO/
525 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Snoqualmie River near the Falls
* Until Tuesday morning.
* At  3:30 PM Monday the flow was 23263 cfs.
* Flood flow is 20000 cfs.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river crested at 24800 cfs at 10 AM Monday and will 
  continue to fall to below flood flow tonight.
* Impact...At 20000 cfs...the Snoqualmie River will cause widespread 
  flooding of pasture lands and roads along the river from the town 
  of Snoqualmie downstream through Fall City. Roads that may become 
  flooded include Fall City-Carnation...Tolt Hill...and Novelty Flats
  Roads. This river level on the Snoqualmie corresponds roughly to a 
  phase 3 flood in the King County flood system.

&&

LAT...LON 4742 12175 4752 12186 4756 12196 4761 12188 4758 12178
      4756 12170       

$$

WAC033-160924-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-160218T0410Z/
/CRNW1.1.ER.160215T2016Z.160216T1200Z.160217T1610Z.NO/
525 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Snoqualmie River near Carnation
* Until Wednesday evening.
* At  4:15 PM Monday the stage was 54.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 54.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to rise and crest near 55.9 feet
  around 4 AM Tuesday. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 54.0 feet...the Snoqualmie River will flood much of the 
  farm land and several roads from Fall City downstream through 
  Carnation and Duvall.

&&

LAT...LON 4756 12196 4770 12204 4784 12202 4783 12194 4771 12193
      4761 12188       

$$

989 
WGUS86 KSEW 160527
FLSSEW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
927 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Stillaguamish River at Arlington affecting Snohomish County.
  Skykomish River near Gold Bar affecting Snohomish County.
  Pilchuck River near Snohomish affecting Snohomish County.
  Snohomish River near Monroe affecting Snohomish County.
  Snohomish River at Snohomish affecting Snohomish County.
  Tolt River near Carnation affecting King County.
  Snoqualmie River near the Falls affecting King County.
  Snoqualmie River near Carnation affecting King County.


.Flood Bulletin No. 14

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars...vans...or trucks through flooded areas. This is 
the cause of most flood related deaths in Washington. Be alert for 
rapid changes and monitor developments by listening to NOAA Weather 
radio or other local media.

&&

WAC061-161427-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-160216T2047Z/
/ARLW1.1.ER.160215T1816Z.160216T0200Z.160216T0847Z.NO/
927 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Stillaguamish River at Arlington
* Until Tuesday afternoon.
* At  8:45 PM Monday the stage was 14.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river crested at 15.4 feet at 6 PM Monday and will 
  continue to fall to below flood stage early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...the Stillaguamish River will locally spill 
  over its banks.  Minor flooding around Silvana will occur...
  including over Pioneer Highway.  A stage of 14 feet on the 
  Stillaguamish River corresponds roughly to Phase 2 in the Snohomish
  County Flood program.

&&

LAT...LON 4816 12211 4817 12223 4816 12237 4826 12240 4823 12224
      4824 12214       

$$

WAC061-161427-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-160216T1821Z/
/GLBW1.2.ER.160215T1319Z.160215T2115Z.160216T0621Z.NO/
927 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Skykomish River near Gold Bar
* Until Tuesday morning.
* At  8:30 PM Monday the stage was 15.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river crested at 17.1 feet at 1 PM Monday and will 
  continue to fall to below flood stage tonight.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...the Skykomish River will cause minor 
  flooding of low pasture lands and low lying roads...including 
  Index-Galena Rd and Tualco Loop Rd.  A stage of 15 feet on the 
  Skykomish River corresponds to a Phase 2 in the Snohomish County 
  flood program.

&&

LAT...LON 4774 12150 4780 12173 4780 12196 4793 12197 4794 12169
      4787 12147       

$$

WAC061-161427-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-160217T0147Z/
/MROW1.2.ER.160216T0015Z.160216T0600Z.160216T1347Z.NO/
927 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Snohomish River near Monroe
* Until Tuesday afternoon.
* At  8:00 PM Monday the stage was 15.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to rise and crest near 16.1 feet
  around 10 PM Monday. The river will fall below flood stage Tuesday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...the Snohomish River will flood several roads
  and much of the low pasture land in the river valley.  A stage of 
  16 feet at this location corresponds to Phase 2 in the Snohomish 
  County Flood Warning System.

&&

LAT...LON 4780 12190 4779 12212 4786 12217 4791 12203 4793 12202
      4793 12190       

$$

WAC061-161427-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-160218T0001Z/
/SNAW1.2.ER.160215T2303Z.160216T1200Z.160217T0901Z.NO/
927 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Snohomish River at Snohomish
* Until Wednesday afternoon.
* At  9:00 PM Monday the stage was 26.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to rise and crest near 27.6 feet
  around 4 AM Tuesday. The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 27.0 feet...the Snohomish River will flood several 
  roads...including the Snohomish-Monroe highway...and low areas of 
  the lower Snohomish valley that are not protected by levees.  A 
  stage of 27 feet on the Snohomish River corresponds roughly to a 
  Phase 2 in the Snohomish County flood program.

&&

LAT...LON 4786 12217 4789 12221 4796 12232 4809 12216 4794 12213
      4791 12203       

$$

WAC061-161427-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-160216T1916Z/
/PILW1.1.ER.160216T0149Z.160216T0500Z.160216T1016Z.NO/
927 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pilchuck River near Snohomish
* Until Tuesday morning.
* At  9:15 PM Monday the stage was 18.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river crested at 18.6 feet at 9 PM Monday and will 
  continue to fall to below flood stage early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...the Pilchuck River spills out of its 
  banks...flooding residences and roads in low lying areas along the 
  river from Granite Falls downstream through the Lake Stevens area 
  and Snohomish. This includes areas around Sexton Rd. and Orchard 
  Ave in Snohomish.

&&

LAT...LON 4805 12192 4803 12196 4789 12204 4792 12216 4810 12207
      4815 12197       

$$

WAC033-161427-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-160217T0635Z/
/TOLW1.1.ER.160215T2018Z.160216T1200Z.160216T2135Z.NO/
927 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tolt River near Carnation
* From 12 PM Monday until Tuesday evening.
* At  7:15 PM Monday the flow was 3679 cfs.
* Flood flow is 5000 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Impact...At 5000 cfs...the Tolt River will flood Tolt River Rd NE 
  and many driveways. Some homes in the San Souci area could be 
  inaccessible due to deep and quick flood waters. This river level 
  on the Tolt corresponds to a phase 3 flood in the King County flood
  system.

&&

LAT...LON 4768 12176 4761 12185 4761 12194 4767 12196 4771 12189
      4774 12184       

$$

WAC033-161427-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-160216T1740Z/
/SQUW1.1.ER.160215T1055Z.160215T1830Z.160216T0840Z.NO/
927 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Snoqualmie River near the Falls
* Until Tuesday morning.
* At  7:30 PM Monday the flow was 22042 cfs.
* Flood flow is 20000 cfs.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river crested at 24800 cfs at 10 AM Monday and will 
  continue to fall to below flood flow early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 20000 cfs...the Snoqualmie River will cause widespread 
  flooding of pasture lands and roads along the river from the town 
  of Snoqualmie downstream through Fall City. Roads that may become 
  flooded include Fall City-Carnation...Tolt Hill...and Novelty Flats
  Roads. This river level on the Snoqualmie corresponds roughly to a 
  phase 3 flood in the King County flood system.

&&

LAT...LON 4742 12175 4752 12186 4756 12196 4761 12188 4758 12178
      4756 12170       

$$

WAC033-161427-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-160218T0411Z/
/CRNW1.1.ER.160215T2016Z.160216T1200Z.160217T1611Z.NO/
927 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Snoqualmie River near Carnation
* Until Wednesday evening.
* At  8:15 PM Monday the stage was 55.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 54.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to rise and crest near 55.9 feet
  around 4 AM Tuesday. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 54.0 feet...the Snoqualmie River will flood much of the 
  farm land and several roads from Fall City downstream through 
  Carnation and Duvall.

&&

LAT...LON 4756 12196 4770 12204 4784 12202 4783 12194 4771 12193
      4761 12188       

$$

640 
WGUS86 KSEW 161207
FLSSEW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
407 AM PST TUE FEB 16 2016

...The Flood Warning has ended for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  South Fork Nooksack River at Saxon Bridge affecting Whatcom County.
  Pilchuck River near Snohomish affecting Snohomish County.
  Cowlitz River at Randle affecting Lewis County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Stillaguamish River at Arlington affecting Snohomish County.
  Skykomish River near Gold Bar affecting Snohomish County.
  Snohomish River near Monroe affecting Snohomish County.
  Tolt River near Carnation affecting King County.
  Snoqualmie River near the Falls affecting King County.
  Bogachiel River near La Push affecting Clallam County.
  Skokomish River near Potlatch affecting Mason County.
  Snohomish River at Snohomish affecting Snohomish County.
  Snoqualmie River near Carnation affecting King County.

.Flood Bulletin No. 17

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars...vans...or trucks through flooded areas. This is 
the cause of most flood related deaths in Washington. Be alert for 
rapid changes and monitor developments by listening to NOAA Weather 
radio or other local media.

&&

WAC009-162107-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-160216T2223Z/
/BOGW1.1.ER.160216T0819Z.160216T1200Z.160216T1323Z.NO/
407 AM PST TUE FEB 16 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bogachiel River near La Push
* From 12 AM Tuesday until this afternoon.
* At  3:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 36.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will remain near flood stage for the next
  several hours this morning...then fall.
* Impact...At 37.0 feet...the Bogachiel River will cause flooding of 
  State Highway 110 near the Bogachiel bridge...closing the road.

&&

LAT...LON 4789 12440 4789 12453 4789 12463 4795 12467 4796 12455
      4798 12443       

$$

WAC045-162107-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-160217T0729Z/
/SRPW1.1.ER.160216T0735Z.160216T1130Z.160216T2229Z.NO/
407 AM PST TUE FEB 16 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Skokomish River near Potlatch
* Until this evening.
* At  3:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 16.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will crest near 17.0 feet around 9 am this  
  morning then fall to below flood stage late this afternoon.
* Impact...At 16.5 feet...the Skokomish River will cause widespread 
  flooding of pasture lands...with water flowing quickly over West 
  Bourgault Road and Skokomish Valley Road.

&&

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308 4721 12321
      4738 12340       

$$

WAC073-161237-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-160216T2202Z/
/NSSW1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
407 AM PST TUE FEB 16 2016

The Flood Warning has ended for
  The South Fork Nooksack River at Saxon Bridge
* At  3:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 7.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4865 12219 4871 12226 4880 12224 4882 12215 4873 12215
      4865 12208       

$$

WAC061-162107-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-160217T0300Z/
/ARLW1.1.ER.160215T1816Z.160216T0200Z.160216T1500Z.NO/
407 AM PST TUE FEB 16 2016

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Stillaguamish River at Arlington
* From 10 AM Monday until this evening.
* At  3:15 AM Tuesday the stage was 13.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will remain near flood stage this morning...
  then fall this afternoon and tonight.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...the Stillaguamish River will locally spill 
  over its banks.  Minor flooding around Silvana will occur...
  including over Pioneer Highway.  A stage of 14 feet on the 
  Stillaguamish River corresponds roughly to Phase 2 in the Snohomish
  County Flood program.

&&

LAT...LON 4816 12211 4817 12223 4816 12237 4826 12240 4823 12224
      4824 12214       

$$

WAC061-162107-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-160217T0004Z/
/GLBW1.2.ER.160215T1319Z.160215T2115Z.160216T1204Z.NO/
407 AM PST TUE FEB 16 2016

...Flood Warning extended until this afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Skykomish River near Gold Bar
* From 5 AM Monday until this afternoon.
* At  3:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 14.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will remain near flood stage this morning...
  then fall this afternoon and tonight.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...the Skykomish River will cause minor 
  flooding of low pasture lands and low lying roads...including 
  Index-Galena Rd and Tualco Loop Rd.  A stage of 15 feet on the 
  Skykomish River corresponds to a Phase 2 in the Snohomish County 
  flood program.

&&

LAT...LON 4774 12150 4780 12173 4780 12196 4793 12197 4794 12169
      4787 12147       

$$

WAC061-162107-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-160217T0226Z/
/MROW1.2.ER.160216T0015Z.160216T0730Z.160216T1426Z.NO/
407 AM PST TUE FEB 16 2016

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Snohomish River near Monroe
* Until this evening.
* At  3:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 15.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river crested at 16.1 feet at 11 PM Monday and will 
  continue to fall to below flood stage this morning.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...the Snohomish River will cause minor 
  flooding of low pasture lands and several roads near the river.  A 
  stage of 15 feet at this location corresponds to Phase 2 in the 
  Snohomish County Flood Warning System.

&&

LAT...LON 4780 12190 4779 12212 4786 12217 4791 12203 4793 12202
      4793 12190       

$$

WAC061-162107-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-160218T0001Z/
/SNAW1.2.ER.160215T2303Z.160216T1030Z.160217T0901Z.NO/
407 AM PST TUE FEB 16 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Snohomish River at Snohomish
* Until Wednesday afternoon.
* At  3:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 28.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to fall to below
  flood stage early Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet...the Snohomish River will flood several 
  roads...including the Snohomish-Monroe highway and Riverview 
  Road...and low areas of the lower Snohomish valley that are not 
  protected by levees.  A stage of 28 feet on the Snohomish River 
  corresponds to a Phase 3 in the Snohomish County flood program.

&&

LAT...LON 4786 12217 4789 12221 4796 12232 4809 12216 4794 12213
      4791 12203       

$$

WAC061-161237-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-160216T1916Z/
/PILW1.1.ER.160216T0149Z.160216T0600Z.160216T0735Z.NO/
407 AM PST TUE FEB 16 2016

The Flood Warning has ended for
  The Pilchuck River near Snohomish
* At  3:45 AM Tuesday the stage was 16.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage last night.
* Forecast...The river fell below flood stage 11:35 PM Monday last 
  night and will continue to fall.


&&

LAT...LON 4805 12192 4803 12196 4789 12204 4792 12216 4810 12207
      4815 12197       

$$

WAC033-162106-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-160217T0428Z/
/TOLW1.1.ER.160215T2018Z.160216T1200Z.160216T1928Z.NO/
407 AM PST TUE FEB 16 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tolt River near Carnation
* From 12 PM Monday until this evening.
* At  3:15 AM Tuesday the flow was 4610 cfs.
* Flood flow is 5000 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will remain near flood stage this morning...
  then fall this afternoon and tonight.
* Impact...At 5000 cfs...the Tolt River will flood Tolt River Rd NE 
  and many driveways. Some homes in the San Souci area could be 
  inaccessible due to deep and quick flood waters. This river level 
  on the Tolt corresponds to a phase 3 flood in the King County flood
  system.

&&

LAT...LON 4768 12176 4761 12185 4761 12194 4767 12196 4771 12189
      4774 12184       

$$

WAC033-162106-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-160217T0357Z/
/SQUW1.1.ER.160215T1055Z.160215T1830Z.160216T1857Z.NO/
407 AM PST TUE FEB 16 2016

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Snoqualmie River near the Falls
* From 3 AM Monday until this evening.
* At  2:30 AM Tuesday the flow was 17795 cfs.
* Flood flow is 20000 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will remain near flood stage this morning...
  then fall this afternoon and tonight.
* Impact...At 20000 cfs...the Snoqualmie River will cause widespread 
  flooding of pasture lands and roads along the river from the town 
  of Snoqualmie downstream through Fall City. Roads that may become 
  flooded include Fall City-Carnation...Tolt Hill...and Novelty Flats
  Roads. This river level on the Snoqualmie corresponds roughly to a 
  phase 3 flood in the King County flood system.

&&

LAT...LON 4742 12175 4752 12186 4756 12196 4761 12188 4758 12178
      4756 12170       

$$

WAC033-162106-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-160218T0411Z/
/CRNW1.1.ER.160215T2016Z.160216T1115Z.160217T1611Z.NO/
407 AM PST TUE FEB 16 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Snoqualmie River near Carnation
* Until Wednesday evening.
* At  3:15 AM Tuesday the stage was 55.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 54.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river crested at 55.9 feet at 3 AM Tuesday and will 
  continue to fall to below flood stage Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 54.0 feet...the Snoqualmie River will flood much of the 
  farm land and several roads from Fall City downstream through 
  Carnation and Duvall.

&&

LAT...LON 4756 12196 4770 12204 4784 12202 4783 12194 4771 12193
      4761 12188       

$$

WAC041-161237-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-160216T1329Z/
/RAWW1.1.ER.160215T2015Z.160215T2345Z.160216T0440Z.NO/
407 AM PST TUE FEB 16 2016

The Flood Warning has ended for
  The Cowlitz River at Randle
* At  3:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 16.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage last night.
* Forecast...The river fell below flood stage  8:40 PM Monday last 
  night and will continue to fall.


&&

LAT...LON 4645 12180 4645 12194 4640 12219 4654 12220 4659 12198
      4661 12183       

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Feb 15, 3:22 PM PST, 1 hour 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 15, 3:22 PM PST, 1 hour 42 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
322 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY THEN WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS DRAPED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. COMPOSITE SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM OVER THE PACIFIC SHOWS THE FRONT THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EXTENDS WSW ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WELL SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII. SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS CONTINUES TO GIVE GOOD OROGRAPHIC
RAINFALL TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WEAKENS. ONLY PATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW PRESSURE NOW NEAR 45N 153W IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW
DEEPENS...THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE RATHER WET ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...THE TROPICAL CONNECTION OF
THE FRONT WILL BE LOST AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HIGH.

THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY...IS A
CHALLENGE AT THIS TIME AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT.
THE GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEEP BUT WEAKENING LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. THE 12Z SOLUTION SHOWED WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE 18Z GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW TAKING IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF SHOW MORE OF A TRIPLE POINT
THAT WOULD BE VIGOROUS BUT LESS WINDY THAN THE GFS. SEVERAL OF THE
SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN LARGE WAVES ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION ON VULNERABLE BEACHES IN GRAYS
HARBOR COUNTY. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...IT APPEARS THAT A VIGOROUS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY GIVING RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. MODEL TIMING HAS
BECOME MORE CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF...GFS...AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MID TO LATE FEBRUARY. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...A WET FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL AFFECT WESTERN WA THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTY OF LOW CIGS AND POOR VSBY WITH THE
TERRAIN HILLS AND MOUNTAINS FREQUENTLY OBSCURED ACROSS MOST OF WRN
WA. TUESDAY WILL BE A BETTER DAY WITH A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

.KSEA...MORE OF THE SAME INTO TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY THROUGH WRN WA. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A BETTER DAY WITH A BREAK
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THRU WRN WA TONIGHT.
WRN WA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY. A LARGE SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS SPINNING
OUT OF THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW RAIN IS NOW MOSTLY
LIMITED TO SNOHOMISH SKAGIT AND WHATCOM COUNTIES...AND IS NOT HEAVY.
RAIN RATES ARE MOSTLY ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR. MESOSCALE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR RAIN RATES TO INCREASE 03Z-09Z AS THE HEAVY
RAIN BAND MOVES SOUTH BACK THROUGH THE AREA AND THEN QUICKLY FADES.
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE FINISHED AROUND 12Z TUESDAY.

THE SHOT OF RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING BROUGHT SEVERAL RIVERS
JUST TO FLOOD STAGE...INCLUDING THE COWLITZ...STILLAGUAMISH...AND
TOLT. THE NOOKSACK AND SKAGIT WILL PROBABLY CREST RIGHT AROUND FLOOD
STAGE TONIGHT. WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST...IN THE CENTRAL
CASCADES...RIVERS WILL CREST ABOVE THE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. THESE
RIVERS INCLUDE THE SKYKOMISH...SNOQUALMIE...AND SNOHOMISH. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE
CASCADES BECAUSE ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL IN THE THE UNIQUELY FLOOD-PRONE SKOKOMISH RIVER BASIN IN
MASON COUNTY HAS BEEN PRETTY MINIMAL BY OLYMPIC PENINSULA STANDARDS.
SO FAR IT HAS NOT BEEN NEAR ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING. WILL KEEP THE
FLOOD WATCH GOING THERE IN CASE SOMETHING UNEXPECTED HAPPENS BUT FOR
NOW THE THREAT OF FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH IS DIMINISHING. RAINFALL
HAS ALSO BEEN HEAVY ON THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA
AND THE BOGACHIEL RIVER HAS BEEN RISING SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL WATCH
THAT RIVER A FEW MORE HOURS TO SEE IF IT STARTS TO RECEDE.

AFTER THIS ROUND OF FLOODING ENDS AROUND TUESDAY... FURTHER FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. BURKE

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
     OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD BULLETIN
     FOR DETAILS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-
     PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WEST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 15, 1:39 PM PST, 3 hours 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
139 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW BELLINGHAM        48.77N 122.49W
02/15/2016  E1.24 INCH       WHATCOM            WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL IN 6 HOURS.

&&

GRUB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Seattle, WA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 15, 6:34 PM PST	Gale Warning	SEW		3 hr
Feb 15, 10:50 PM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Clallam	16 hr
Feb 15, 10:50 PM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Mason	25 hr
Feb 16, 2:06 AM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Whatcom	12 hr
Feb 16, 2:53 AM PST	Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas	SEW		18 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Washington, 2016 Every river flood warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.