Gale Watch 1, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
912 PM PST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
GENERALLY WET FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT IS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW. RAIN HAS BEEN HEAVY IN THE SOUTHERN OLYMPICS WHICH
FORCED THE SKOKOMISH RIVER INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. MEANWHILE IN THE
CASCADES...EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS IN THE PASSES BELOW
FREEZING WITH SNOW EXPECTED AT BOTH STEVENS AND SNOQUALMIE. SO FAR 8
INCHES HAS FALLEN AT SNOQUALMIE WITH MORE ON THE WAY. WILL BOOST THE
SNOW AMOUNTS AND UPGRADE FOR WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE WEST
SLOPES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS EASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE CASCADES WILL
STILL SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 3500 FEET.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT WARM FRONT WILL CLIP WESTERN WA ON
THURSDAY FOR MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY SOUTH OF SEATTLE.
FRIDAY IS NOW LOOKING CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER WET FRONTAL SYSTEM REACHING THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED RAPIDLY BY ADDITIONAL FRONTS AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY...AT LEAST ON
THE GFS. THE EC AND GEM GENERALLY AGREE THIS WILL BE A WET PERIOD
BUT THE DETAILS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN
THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAINS ON THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS FORCED
THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR
FLOODING EXPECTED.

ADDITIONAL WET WEATHER SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK COULD BRING MORE FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE EXCEPTIONALLY FLOOD-
PRONE SKOKOMISH. OTHERWISE...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD RAIN ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
COAST LATER THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAVE A MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CONDITIONS ARE VFR OVER INLAND AREAS BUT MVFR OR IFR OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT WITH SOME
VISIBILITY 3-5SM IN RAIN. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY ALL DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. SOUTHERLY WIND 10-15 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ON THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE
COAST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND INLAND FOR A FEW HOURS MORE.
ONSHORE FLOW LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STRENGTH WESTERLIES TO THE STRAIT.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY ISSUE WILL BE
THE CONTINUING SEAS ABOVE 10 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AN ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

A COUPLE MORE VIGOROUS FRONTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS STILL INDICATE BORDERLINE GALES OVER
PRIMARILY THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH EACH FRONT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY OVER INLAND WATERS. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CASCADES OF
     PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING
     COUNTIES-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
     TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
     4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO
     JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY
     TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND
     TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES
     ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 6 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ADMIRALTY
     INLET-CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND
     WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD
     CANAL.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
     4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

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