Alert archive / Virginia / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

August 16, 2016Smyth County, Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this special weather statement at Aug 16, 2016, 6:55 PM EDT for Smyth County, Virginia. It was in force for 35 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 16, 2016, 6:55 PM EDT (22:55 UTC)
Expired: Aug 16, 2016, 7:30 PM EDT
In force: 35 min
Issued by: NWS Blacksburg, VA

County Smyth County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 121 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 179 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1221 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -44 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 927 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -23 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 1 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 16, 3:52 PM EDT, 3 hours 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 16, 3:52 PM EDT, 3 hours 3 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
352 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the western Atlantic will continue to
provide a moist southwest flow humid air across the region
through Thursday. A weak cold front will drift southeast from the
Ohio Valley Wednesday night and Thursday before stalling just
south of the area on Friday. This boundary will dissipate across
the Carolinas by the end of the week ahead of another cold front
that will approach from the northwest during the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon, mainly along
the ridge lines then slowly diminish after sunset. Winds at 850 mb
turn to the west tonight which will help suppress precipitation
overnight east of the Blue Ridge.

On Wednesday 500MB heights gradually lower over the forecast area.
Axis of deepest moisture and best list will be oriented from
southeast Pennsylvania to central arkansas.

Better upper diffluence in the right rear quadrant of the upper jet
will also be closer to the forecast area. This will be enough to
provide more widespread lift.

Will maintain higher probability of precipitation well into the late
Wednesday afternoon even after daytime heat is no longer
contributing to the instability and lift.

More cloud cover and precipitation on Wednesday may trim a couple of
degrees off the high temperatures. Otherwise...with no change in the
airmass, minimum temperatures will be similar to past few night with
continued high humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EDT Tuesday...

During this portion of the forecast, a cold front will head south
through the region on Thursday, and be south of the region by
Thursday night. Anticipate good coverage of showers and storms near
and coincident to the frontal passage. By late Thursday night, the
northern half of the region is expected to be precipitation free.
Lingering isolated to scattered showers will still be possible
across the southern half, especially those areas south of the VA/NC
border.

The break in the precipitation will be short lived. An
developing/approaching upper trough in the center of CONUS will
shift directions on the front, and bring it back toward or into the
area on Friday as a warm front. Look for precipitation to gradually
spread southwest to northeast into the area.

Temperatures will trend slightly cooler, but still remain a bit
above average for this time of the year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Tuesday...

The central CONUS trough, will continue to deepen and head east.
Guidance yesterday was hinting at Sunday, but the latest guidance
has more of a Monday arrival time for its associated cold front into
our region. Anticipate a trend for increasing chances of
precipitation in advance this feature.

With lowering heights, and more cloud cover and precipitation,
temperatures will be slightly cooler Saturday through Monday as
compared to Thursday and Friday. Readings still will be slightly
above normal for this time of year, especially in regards to the low
temperatures. On Tuesday, anticipate cooler temperatures in the wake
of the cold front. Temperatures will be slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Tuesday...

No change in the weather pattern for this TAF cycle that features
scattered thunderstorms between 16Z/noon and 02Z/8PM and overnight
MVFR to IFR fog in locations that had rain. KLWB, KBLF, KBCB, and
KROA with all have a medium to high chance of thunderstorms with
gusty winds and MVFR ceilings and visibilities this afternoon.
Coverage will be a little less around KLYH and KDAN but if a
storms does impact the airport high confidence it will bring MVFR
conditions.

Have maintained LIFR fog in the KLWB and KBCB tafs for late
tonight based on no change in the air mass and formation of fog
over the past few night.

Extended aviation discussion...

For Wednesday and beyond, the area of high pressure along the
southeast Atlantic coast is expected to weaken. This will allow
a frontal system to begin moving south toward the region,
resulting in an increased coverage of showers/thunderstorms with
attendant periods of MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys. Early morning low
clouds and fog will likely be on the increase also. Friday will
offer the best break in this pattern with the better probability
of precipitation moving into North Carolina. Confidence is medium
to low on this short-lived drier weather. The chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns on Saturday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 16, 4:22 PM EDT, 2 hours 33 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
422 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-172030-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
422 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW FOR
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 16, 3:24 PM EDT, 3 hours 31 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
324 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

VAZ045-162015-
CAMPBELL-
324 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CAMPBELL COUNTY...

AT 321 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EVINGTON...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONCORD...
RUSTBURG...
BOCOCK...
SPRING MILLS...
AND MIKE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3719 7883 3718 7921 3728 7928 3739 7908
      3739 7906 3740 7906 3743 7902 3732 7895
      3729 7895 3728 7893 3725 7892 3725 7889
      3724 7886 3721 7886 3720 7882
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 263DEG 18KT 3720 7924

RAB

Special weather statement, Aug 16, 3:49 PM EDT, 3 hours 6 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
349 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

VAZ046-162045-
APPOMATTOX-
349 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN APPOMATTOX COUNTY...

AT 348 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER STONEWALL...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
APPOMATTOX...
BENT CREEK...
OAKVILLE...
STONEWALL...
AND APPOMATTOX NATIONAL HISTORIC PARK.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 3729 7894 3742 7902 3744 7901 3747 7898
      3749 7894 3750 7895 3750 7892 3752 7889
      3753 7889 3753 7888 3754 7886 3754 7883
      3755 7882 3745 7870 3743 7868 3742 7865
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 232DEG 27KT 3740 7896

RAB

Special weather statement, Aug 16, 5:16 PM EDT, 1 hour 39 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
516 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

VAZ010-162200-
BLAND-
516 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN BLAND COUNTY...

AT 515 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER KIMBERLING...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLAND...
BASTIAN...
ROCKY GAP...
HICKSVILLE...
AND KIMBERLING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3727 8114 3729 8102 3730 8100 3729 8098
      3727 8101 3718 8090 3719 8087 3718 8086
      3717 8088 3715 8086 3712 8089 3711 8093
      3707 8091 3705 8098 3704 8105 3714 8122
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 219DEG 19KT 3718 8108

RAB

Special weather statement, Aug 16, 5:37 PM EDT, 1 hour 18 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
537 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

VAZ011-WVZ042-162230-
GILES-MERCER-
537 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN GILES AND SOUTHEASTERN
MERCER COUNTIES...

AT 536 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CHAPEL...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEARISBURG...
NARROWS...
PETERSTOWN...
POPLAR HILL...
AND RICH CREEK.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3730 8098 3730 8101 3743 8085 3743 8084
      3740 8080 3740 8079 3724 8061 3716 8087
      3717 8088 3718 8086 3719 8087 3718 8089
      3718 8090 3727 8101
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 230DEG 22KT 3727 8090

RAB

Special weather statement, Aug 16, 5:59 PM EDT, 56 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
559 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

VAZ011-WVZ044-162300-
GILES-MONROE-
559 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GILES AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONROE
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 558 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PEARISBURG...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEARISBURG...
NARROWS...
PEMBROKE...
PETERSTOWN...
AND POPLAR HILL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3753 8055 3740 8046 3734 8044 3733 8045
      3731 8043 3720 8071 3719 8077 3734 8087
      3735 8085 3737 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 238DEG 22KT 3732 8076

RAB

Special weather statement, Aug 16, 6:55 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
655 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

VAZ007-009-162330-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-
655 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTH CENTRAL TAZEWELL AND NORTHERN SMYTH COUNTIES...

AT 654 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS DEVELOPING OVER
BROADFORD... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARION...
CHILHOWIE...
ASBERRYS...
BROADFORD...
AND ALLISON GAP.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3678 8168 3694 8180 3710 8156 3687 8139
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 239DEG 9KT 3690 8167

WP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 15, 8:03 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista, City of Lexington	27 min
Aug 15, 8:12 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Prince Edward	33 min
Aug 15, 8:39 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Buckingham	36 min
Aug 15, 10:29 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Buckingham	46 min
Aug 15, 11:16 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Cumberland	14 min
Aug 16, 1:23 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Franklin	52 min
Aug 16, 1:46 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Bedford	59 min
Aug 16, 2:52 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Bedford	53 min
Aug 16, 3:24 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Campbell	51 min
Aug 16, 3:49 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Appomattox	56 min
Aug 16, 5:16 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Bland	44 min
Aug 16, 5:37 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Giles	53 min
Aug 16, 5:59 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Giles	61 min
Aug 16, 7:26 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Smyth	49 min
Aug 16, 7:37 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Bland, Smyth, Tazewell, Wythe	68 min
Aug 16, 7:43 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Mercer	32 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Virginia, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.