Alert archive / Virginia / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

August 15, 2016Charlotte County, Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this special weather statement at Aug 15, 2016, 5:48 PM EDT for Charlotte County, Virginia. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 15, 2016, 5:48 PM EDT (21:48 UTC)
Expired: Aug 15, 2016, 6:15 PM EDT
In force: 27 min
Issued by: NWS Blacksburg, VA

County Charlotte County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 135 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 66 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 493 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -115 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1001 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 15 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 42 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 15, 4:18 PM EDT, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 15, 4:18 PM EDT, 1 hour 30 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
418 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the western Atlantic will remain
nearly stationary through Tuesday. A frontal boundary will also
remain nearly stationary, extending from New England into the
Ohio Valley. This front will eventually get kicked farther south
and east by an upper level trough of low pressure which will move
across the northern tier states later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 405 PM EDT Monday...

Radar showed isolated to scattered thunderstorms with the better
coverage west of the Blue Ridge. Freezing level between 13500 and
15000 feet and precipitable water values from 1.5 to 1.8 inches
were contributing to efficient warm rain processes. Similar to
past few night thunderstorms will dissipate between 10PM and
midnight.

With little change in the weather pattern...once clearing occurs
overnight, west valleys and locations that had rain this afternoon
will have early morning fog.

Combination of persistence and MAV guidance was used for lows
tonight and high temperatures on Tuesday. Some of the guidance for
coverage of thunderstorms was on the more pessimistic side but
stayed with a pattern closer to coverage from Sunday and today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Monday...

During this portion of the forecast, a cold front is forecast to
slowly progress into, through, and then perhaps just south of the
region. The result will increasing chances of showers and storms
during the daytime hours as compared to simply diurnally and
orographically based convection. Coverage is expected to be greatest
Wednesday afternoon and evening across the central and southern
portions of the region. By Thursday night, coverage will be confined
to primarily isolated to scattered coverage near and south of the
VA/NC border with limited if any activity near the I-64 corridor.

Temperatures will be warmest on Wednesday compared to slightly
cooler conditions for Thursday. Despite this minor decrease in
temperature, readings will still average about five to ten degrees
above normal for lows and less than five degrees above normal for
the high temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Monday...

Our trend towards a drier air mass across the area is short lived.
By Friday night, the cold front to our south is expected to return
north again as a warm front in response to an approaching upper
tough in the central U.S.  Look for daytime/evening chances of
showers and storms to again increase across the area. Based upon the
latest guidance, Sunday will have the potential for the best
coverage, along with the best chance for strong storms with and
approach and passage of a strong cold front. Precipitation chances
will decrease again Monday in the wake of the cold front as high
pressure builds into the area.

Temperatures will show very little deviation from day to day during
this part of the forecast. Values will continue to average about
five to ten degrees above normal for lows and less than five degrees
above normal for the high temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Monday...

Radar images since noon have shown the development of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms along the west of the Blue Ridge. Probability
of storms will continue until 23Z/7PM. Medium to high confidence
for scattered to numerous during that time frame. KLWB and KBLF
will have a higher chance of storms than KLYH and KDAN. The more
intense storms today have the potential to produce strong gusty
winds.

Aside from any sub-VFR associated with the TSRA, conditions
through the afternoon and evening should be VFR. Medium to high
confidence for fog in the mountain valleys again late tonight
with potential for LIFR in the Greenbrier Valley of WV vicinity of
KLWB, and across the New River Valley of VA impacting KBCB/KPSK/KMKJ.

Conditions will be similar on Tuesday with the fog dissipate and
VFR conditions by 14Z/10AM then more thunderstorms after 16Z/noon.

Extended aviation discussion...

Same pattern will continue Tuesday as a subtropical upper ridge
remains anchored along the NC/VA coast. A frontal system will be
stalled well to our north across from OH into PA with primary
thunderstorm threat confined to this frontal boundary. Thunderstorm
coverage across our forecast area will remain widely scattered
with little or no organization and confined mainly to the
mountains during the peak heating times of the day (18Z/2PM to
00Z/8PM).

For the second half of the week, Wednesday and beyond, the area
of high pressure along the southeast Atlantic coast is expected to
weaken. This will allow the aforementioned frontal system to begin
moving southward toward the region, resulting in an increased
probability of showers/thunderstorms with attendant periods of
MVFR cigs/vsbys. Early morning low clouds and fog will likely be
on the increase also.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/PM

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 15, 1:24 PM EDT, 4 hours 24 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
124 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>044-507-508-
161100-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-
BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
WESTERN GREENBRIER-
124 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ005-006-VAZ043>047-058-059-161100-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
124 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY GET CLOSE TO 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 15, 4:18 PM EDT, 1 hour 30 minutes before

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Local storm report, Aug 15, 4:32 PM EDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Aug 15, 4:47 PM EDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
447 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

VAZ010-011-WVZ042>044-152115-
BLAND-GILES-SUMMERS-MERCER-MONROE-
447 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN GILES...NORTHEASTERN BLAND...SOUTHEASTERN SUMMERS...
SOUTHEASTERN MERCER AND SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 447 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WILLOWTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NARROWS...
ATHENS...
PETERSTOWN...
PIPESTEM...
AND RICH CREEK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3721 8096 3729 8108 3765 8090 3752 8060
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 209DEG 22KT 3735 8093

WP

Special weather statement, Aug 15, 5:04 PM EDT, 44 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
504 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

VAZ016-017-032-152130-
FLOYD-CARROLL-PATRICK-
504 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTH CENTRAL PATRICK...SOUTHWESTERN FLOYD AND EAST CENTRAL CARROLL
COUNTIES...

AT 503 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WILLIS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FLOYD...
INDIAN VALLEY...
WILLIS...
ROCKY KNOB RECREATION AREA...
AND MABRY MILL.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3671 8062 3699 8053 3700 8052 3701 8052
      3701 8051 3699 8050 3699 8049 3700 8048
      3699 8048 3700 8047 3688 8024 3667 8045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 211DEG 12KT 3679 8051

WP

Special weather statement, Aug 15, 5:46 PM EDT, 2 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
546 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

VAZ034-044-152215-
BEDFORD-PITTSYLVANIA-
546 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN PITTSYLVANIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTIES...

AT 545 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS DEVELOPING OVER
AJAX...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PENHOOK...
SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE STATE PARK...
PITTSVILLE...
AJAX...
AND NORTH SHORE.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND
MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE
OUT TO 10 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO
SAFE SHELTER NOW! DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3689 7949 3692 7963 3703 7960 3705 7960
      3705 7959 3708 7962 3709 7961 3709 7963
      3715 7963 3710 7942 3706 7944 3706 7940
      3709 7940 3707 7931
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 198DEG 10KT 3694 7955

WP

Special weather statement, Aug 15, 5:48 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
548 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

VAZ045-046-059-152215-
CHARLOTTE-APPOMATTOX-CAMPBELL-
548 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHWESTERN APPOMATTOX...NORTHWESTERN CHARLOTTE AND SOUTHEASTERN
CAMPBELL COUNTIES...

AT 547 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WREN...MOVING
NORTH AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PHENIX...
RED HOUSE...
ASPEN...
WREN...
AND MIKE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3700 7877 3703 7891 3731 7893 3724 7868
      3721 7869 3720 7869 3719 7864
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 198DEG 10KT 3710 7885

WP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 15, 1:39 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Botetourt, City of Roanoke, City of Salem	51 min
Aug 15, 1:55 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Roanoke, City of Roanoke, City of Salem	2 hr
Aug 15, 2:03 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Smyth	42 min
Aug 15, 2:15 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Buckingham	45 min
Aug 15, 2:37 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Botetourt	53 min
Aug 15, 2:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Bedford	25 min
Aug 15, 3:16 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Craig	44 min
Aug 15, 3:58 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Rockbridge	32 min
Aug 15, 4:47 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Giles	28 min
Aug 15, 5:04 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Floyd	26 min
Aug 15, 5:46 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Pittsylvania	29 min
Aug 15, 6:08 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Franklin	37 min
Aug 15, 6:14 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Buckingham	31 min
Aug 15, 6:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Bedford, Franklin	41 min
Aug 15, 6:36 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Appomattox	24 min
Aug 15, 6:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Appomattox, Buckingham	49 min
Aug 15, 7:17 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Appomattox, Buckingham	118 min
Aug 15, 7:19 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Bedford	26 min
Aug 15, 7:37 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Buckingham	23 min
Aug 15, 5:56 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Summers	34 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Virginia, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.