Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
415 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the western Atlantic will remain
nearly stationary through Tuesday. A weak cold front will move
through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, stalling just north of
the area into Tuesday. This front will eventually get kicked
farther south and east by an upper level trough of low pressure
which will move across the northern tier states later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...

Little change in overall weather pattern through Monday with
abnormally high 500MB heights over the region. some of the energy
and moisture from a short wave over the eastern Gulf of Mexico may
reach the forecast area by Monday afternoon. This may expand areal
coverage of thunderstorms compared to past few days. Main axis of
deep moisture and significant rainfall will remain to west over
the Ohio Valley.

Similar to past few days muggy dew points in the upper 60s to mid
70s will continue with little change in air mass and therefore
minimum temperatures tonight and maximum temperatures on Monday.
Used a blend of MAV guidance and persistence.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

The very warm and muggy airmass is expected to remain across the
mid- Atlantic through mid-week thanks to strong upper level
ridging extending across the southeastern states from the
Atlantic, combined with southwesterly windflow in the low levels
which is drawing deep tropical moisture northward from the Gulf of
Mexico.

A stalled frontal boundary near the Ohio River is expected to
make minimal southward progress on Tuesday as an upper level
disturbance tracks across the north-central plains. The upper
level ridge over the western Atlantic will keep convection
isolated over the foothills and piedmont counties and more
scattered across the mountains. With minimal cloud cover and
rainfall Tuesday afternoon temperatures will once again be warmer
than normal with 80s across the mountains to lower 90s east.

The upper level trough tracks over the Great Lakes Region
Wednesday giving the frontal boundary a better push to the south.
Deeper tropical moisture will pool south of the front as indicated
by increasing precipitable water values within several weather
forecast models. Combine the increased moisture with another day
of strong heating, and believe we can expect greater coverage of
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Better
coverage of showers will be across the mountains. The eastern half
of the area will remain under the influence of the upper level
ridge, therefore showers coverage will be more isolated into the
evening. Cloud cover and rainfall from this convection will make
for slightly cooler afternoon temperatures compared to earlier
this week.

Conditions each night will remain on the warm and muggy side,
with patchy fog developing in the deeper mountain valleys and
across spots that received significant rainfall during the evening
prior. Low temperatures will range from the mid/upper 60s for the
mountains, to the low 70s east of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...

Models continue to advertise that the current stalled boundary
over the Mid West and Ohio Valley edges east late this week.
Models continue to show an upper level trough moving across the
Great Lakes Wednesday, then over the Ohio Valley Thursday. Models
weaken the blocking ridge over the western Atlantic through this
period, but it remains to be seen if this will actually happen
Wednesday into Thursday. Eventually this ridge will give way, but
it may take another day or two before the front moves to the
Appalachains, probably more Thursday into Friday. With this in
mind, confidence is low with timing, therefore will keep chancy
PoPs in the forecast.

Beside this front increasing the chance for rain in the region,
the temperatures will only be affected when the front becomes
stalled over the area. Warm and humid conditions will remain while
the front is to our west. Not much of an air mass change if the
front does sink to our south. If this boundary is in the vicinity,
showers will start earlier and linger longer, keeping temperatures
a little cooler, however the dew points and relative humidity will
remain uncomfortable into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

No change in airmass is expected today with another hot and humid
afternoon. scattered thunderstorms were developing on the
mountains. High confidence that KBLF, KLWB, and KBCB will have at
least thunderstorms in the vicinity, if not impacting the airports
themselves. Locally heavy rain has the potential for lowering
visibilities to less than 1SM for brief periods of time, however
storms are expected to continue moving, therefore sub VFR
conditions will be temporary.

Showers/Storms to diminish after sunset. Patchy fog developing
after midnight with LIFR in the Greenbrier Valley of WV impacting
KLWB and in the New River Valley, impacting KBCB/KPSK/KMKJ. Aside
for this river valley driven fog, mainly VFR elsewhere overnight.

Extended aviation discussion...

For the first half of the week, a summertime pattern will
continue as a subtropical upper ridge of high pressure remains
anchored along the NC/VA coast. A frontal system will be stalled
well to our north across from OH into PA with primary thunderstorm
threat confined to this frontal boundary. Shower and thunderstorm
coverage across our forecast area will remain widely scattered
with little or no organization and confined mainly to the
mountains during the peak heating times of the day (18Z/2PM to
00Z/8PM).

For the second half of the week, Wednesday and beyond, the area
of high pressure along the southeast Atlantic coast is expected to
weaken. This will allow the aforementioned frontal system to begin
moving southward toward the region, resulting in an increased
probability of showers/thunderstorms with attendant periods of
MVFR cigs/vsbys. Early morning low clouds and fog will likely be
on the increase also.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
639 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

NCZ005-006-VAZ035-043>047-058-059-151045-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-
BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
639 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX NEAR 105.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 105 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>034-WVZ042>044-507-508-
151045-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-
BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
639 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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