Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
748 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front extends from eastern Pennsylvania to central
Kentucky. This front will drift south tonight, stalling over, or
just to the south of the region on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...

Summertime upper level ridge covers the southern one half of the
CONUS with a compact 500 mb trough near the Pacific NW coast and
broad cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes and into New England.
Weak surface cold front was stretched from New England, southwest
through the lower Ohio Valley along the southern periphery of the
faster westerly flow aloft associated with the broad cyclone to
the north. Little in the way of dynamic support was associated
with the weak front with the exception for the New England portion
of front where an embedded perturbation aloft will provide
enhanced lift. Southern part of the front has been relying mainly
on daytime heating and thermodynamic support to drive deep
convection closer to the frontal boundary.

For our forecast area, the surface front will be approaching from
the north, coverage of showers and thunderstorms increasing as the
evening progresses. MLCAPE close to 2000 j/kg and DCAPE values of
700 to 1000 will likely drive some strong thunderstorms through at
least sunset. Cloud layer mean wind forecast is from 300 deg at
15 to 20 mph...so the added DCAPE would likely result is some
respectable thunderstorm outflow surface gusts of double those
wind values. An isolated pulse severe storm can't be ruled out,
but with lack of upper level dynamic support, there does not
appear to be an organized threat.

Models gradually bring front through southern WV/VA during the
overnight...winds becoming northerly on the back side of the
front. Convergence along the front will likely result in lingering
convection across the southern forecast area through the overnight
but diminishing in intensity with time. Clouds will also linger,
temperatures remaining mild, although some infiltration of dryer
air north of Interstate 64 may allow for cooler readings farther
north.

On Sunday, the surface front is progged to stall, along or just
south of the VA/NC border. Some drier air will push into northern
portions of the forecast area, but will have trouble making
inroads into this subtropical airmass. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will once again develop along the frontal zone Sunday
afternoon, although expectation is for the greatest coverage to be
across our southern CWA as opposed to the north. Temperatures
will be more subdued (highs 70s mountains to lower 80s piedmont)
per cloud cover which will likely be pretty extensive across the
southern Appalachians along the frontal zone.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...

A shallow upper trof over the northeast US will give way to building
heights as a ridge amplifies over the eastern third of the country.
This will allow surface high pressure over the Great Lakes to more
eastward and briefly wedge down the east side of the Appalachians into
the first part of next week. This will also act to squeeze the
lingering frontal boundary over the region, and pieces of energy and
some moisture from a tropical circulation along the Gulf Coast become
entrained in the synoptic circulation over our region. This is trending
guidance in a wetter direction and will bring an enhanced chance for
showers/storms to our forecast for Sunday night through Monday, but
expect developing southeasterly flow to create some downsloping
conditions far west so will trim POPs accordingly. As the surface high
continues to slide eastward on Tuesday the flow will become more
southeasterly and should help confine the better for precipitation more
to the southern Blue Ridge. The airmass will remain very moist through
the period and there may be potential for some hydro issues due to
locally excessive rainfall mainly Sunday night into Monday. With
wedgelike conditions expect high temperatures to generally be well
below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...

A broad, flat upper level ridge will be in place through the middle of
next week with a surface Bermuda high established off the coast. This
will keep a southerly flow of warm and moisture air coming into the
region. Overall synoptic forcing is weak but diurnal heating in the
unstable warm and moist airmass will help showers/storms bubble up
especially from the Blue Ridge westward. By the end of the week a
shallow trof will be moving through the Great Lakes region as a weak
surface boundary pushes in our direction from the northwest. Energy and
some additional moisture from a remnant tropical circulation also looks
to get absorbed into the synoptic flow as it shifts to a more
southwesterly direction ahead of the trof. This will enhance our
precipitation chances and aerial coverage of showers/storms as we head
into the weekend. Expect seasonally warm temperatures through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Saturday...

Surface front extends from New Jersey to southern Missouri.This
front will move into southern Virginia tonight then stall over
extreme northern North Carolina on Sunday. Thunderstorms will be
scattered along and just ahead of the front this evening. Wind
gusts of 30 to 40 knots are possible with any of the stronger
storms.

As surface and low level winds turn to the north then east behind
the front, ceilings will lower to IFR in the favored upslope areas
along the east slopes of the Blue Ridge overnight. Models bring
drier air into central Virginia behind the front on Sunday but low
confidence that this will advance as far south as KROA or KLYH.
Expect ceilings to lift back to VFR after sunrise on Sunday.

Proximity of the front will also determine precipitation
coverage...with greatest coverage of showers expected over the
Carolinas and southern Appalachians Sunday. KDAN is the most
likely TAF site to have showers Sunday afternoon.

Extended aviation discussion...

Sunday night through Tuesday easterly upslope flow deepens with
widespread rain, along with IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities,
in the mountains and eastern foothills of the Appalachians.

An unsettled week is expected with southeast wind flow resulting
in low clouds and occasional showers through Thursday. MVFR cigs
will likely persist through Thursday with potential for IFR
conditions at night.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
407 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-035-WVZ042>044-507-508-070815-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
407 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>034-043>047-058-059-070815-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-
CHARLOTTE-
407 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
712 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

VAZ035-045>047-070015-
BUCKINGHAM-APPOMATTOX-AMHERST-CAMPBELL-
712 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
APPOMATTOX...SOUTHEASTERN AMHERST...SOUTHWESTERN BUCKINGHAM...AND
EASTERN CAMPBELL COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

AT 710 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MADISON HEIGHTS TO SPOUT
SPRING TO NEAR HIXBURG. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LYNCHBURG...
APPOMATTOX...
CONCORD...
RUSTBURG...
AND PAMPLIN CITY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3733 7848 3733 7852 3736 7856 3737 7858
      3740 7859 3734 7860 3732 7863 3725 7868
      3722 7873 3723 7878 3720 7880 3720 7882
      3708 7888 3717 7905 3755 7921 3749 7886
      3754 7865 3735 7845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 325DEG 37KT 3746 7913 3735 7889 3742 7865

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
717 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

VAZ034-045-070000-
CAMPBELL-BEDFORD-
717 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CAMPBELL AND EAST
CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTIES...

AT 716 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF HUDDLESTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. OCCASIONAL
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALTAVISTA...
EVINGTON...
AND HODGES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3708 7915 3710 7921 3711 7920 3712 7921
      3711 7922 3712 7925 3713 7925 3713 7926
      3725 7955 3737 7946 3722 7907
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 296DEG 20KT 3726 7942

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
803 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

VAZ058-059-070100-
CHARLOTTE-HALIFAX-
803 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CHARLOTTE AND
NORTHEASTERN HALIFAX COUNTIES...

AT 802 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PHENIX TO NEAR CHARLOTTE COURT
HOUSE TO NEAR ABILENE. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KEYSVILLE...
CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE...
PHENIX...
DRAKES BRANCH...
AND WYLLIESBURG.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3689 7849 3682 7855 3682 7871 3711 7887
      3714 7885 3715 7866 3717 7863 3714 7859
      3715 7855 3713 7851 3711 7850 3709 7848
      3708 7844
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 323DEG 15KT 3708 7878 3708 7862 3714 7850

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
821 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

VAZ033-034-044-045-070115-
CAMPBELL-BEDFORD-PITTSYLVANIA-FRANKLIN-
821 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
PITTSYLVANIA...EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN...SOUTHWESTERN CAMPBELL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTIES...

AT 821 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SMITH MOUNTAIN
LAKE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALTAVISTA...
HURT...
GRETNA...
MT AIRY...
AND HUDDLESTON.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3704 7903 3704 7905 3706 7909 3679 7916
      3680 7917 3711 7974 3723 7952 3706 7902
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 289DEG 17KT 3710 7956

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
829 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 N EVINGTON            37.31N 79.28W
08/06/2016                   CAMPBELL           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ALONG TURKEY FOOT ROAD.

&&

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
832 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

VAZ033-043-070115-
HENRY-FRANKLIN-
832 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTIES...

AT 831 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FERRUM...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AXTON...
SYDNORSVILLE...
FERRUM...
LEATHERWOOD...
AND LAUREL PARK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3687 8009 3698 7998 3686 7964 3662 7970
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 279DEG 14KT 3689 7994

RAB