Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
322 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south through the area and stall near or
south of the Virginia, North Carolina border. By Thursday, the
front will lift north through the region again, and stall once
again. It will continue to be the focus for additional showers
and storms into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 PM EDT Sunday...

Models vary on activity this afternoon/evening in terms of where
best coverage will occur. The 12z GFS and to some extent the Euro
showing higher threat in the mountains of WV down toward the NC
foothills, while the high-res models and 12z nam favor more of the
foothills to piedmont. Will favor the east more given better low lvl
convergence and higher theta-e. Still some decent coverage possible
further northwest toward the Alleghany Highlands closer to the upper
vort moving across from Ohio to MD. Will continue to have high
chance to low likely mainly from Rockbridge south to the Blue
Ridge/Foothills of Patrick/Surry county east, with more 30/40 pops in
the west with less threat in the southwest toward the NC/TN border.

As we head into tonight the upper wave passes across PA/MD and sends
the frontal boundary south toward our forecast area. With sfc
convergence and lingering moisture will keep at least slight chance
of showers southeast overnight. Most models agree with this though
the NAM pops up a few showers further north which could happen but
think the threat is low.

Fog will be prevalent again late tonight especially if it clears
enough. Some moisture may stick around with the front, but best fog
threat will be in the mountains and valleys. Lows tonight to range
from the lower to mid 60s west to lower 70s southeast.

Monday should see somewhat drier weather as front drops slightly
south toward the NC/VA border. Confidence low that entire forecast
will be dry though as another 1 to 2 upper waves pass across and
some sfc trough may send the front slightly north again in the
afternoon. Still best threat for storms Monday afternoon will be in
southern Virginia into NC with isolated coverage north of a
Bluefield to Roanoke to Lynchburg line.

Going with some lower dewpoints in the north compared to today so a
little less humid. Still temperatures should manage to reach typical
1st of August norms or just a degree or two higher, with lower 80s
west to around 90 east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

During this portion of the forecast the region will transition from
being under the influence of an upper level trough to being under an
upper level ridge. While not reducing our precipitation chances to
zero, this transition will result in a trend towards less afternoon
convection, especially on Tuesday. Wednesday afternoon may see more
coverage than Tuesday as the center of the upper ridge shifts to our
east. Little in the way of temperature change is expected through
the period. Highs in the low to mid 80s will be common across the
mountains with upper 80s to around 90 across the Piedmont. Lows in
the low to mid 60s across the mountains and upper 60s to near 70
across the Piedmont are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
During this portion of the forecast the shortwave upper ridge will
continue its shift east, and then south of the area. A stronger
shortwave trough will traverse the Great Lakes region all while our
area transitions to a nearly zonal flow. The result will a period of
increased chances of daily showers and storms as we develop a train
of moisture wrapping clockwise around the upper high, across our
region, having its origins from the western Gulf of Mexico.

Temperatures will on Thursday will just slightly cooler than recent
days, but by the weekend rebound back to readings comparable to
earlier in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Sunday...

Keeping an eye on radar this afternoon showing widely scattered
showers and storms forming. LWB as of 1720z has one to the west
but expect it to be in vicinity by 18z. Better coverage appears to
be centered east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon and will keep
the tempo group for thunder in at LYH/DAN with medium confidence
that these two airports will have storms move over in the 19-22z
time frame. Elsewhere will only have VCTS but amend as necessary.

Outside of thunderstorms should be Low end VFR with ceilings
around 3-5kft, but some high end MVFR possible, and as usual some
IFR possible in thunderstorms.

Storms will exit and wane by early evening toward WV and toward
the Blue Ridge with lingering convection possible as we head
toward late evening in the DAN area, so will keep the VCTS in til
03z there.

Overnight fog will be an issue where it rains and in the river
valleys. Confidence high enough to have at least IFR or worse at
LWB/BCB and LYH late tonight. Not as confident in how low BLF/DAN
get as some models keeping them no worse than MVFR, but some
possibility if the clouds clear the southeast that Danville could
drop to LIFR given expected rainfall this afternoon/evening.

As usual any fog/stratus should be gone by 12-15z time frame with
VFR expected thereafter.

Extended aviation discussion...

The weak cold front will sag through the region later Monday
before stalling just south of the area into midweek. This should
briefly push deeper moisture to the south to start the week with
mainly isolated convection Monday and perhaps mainly south/east
of the taf sites Tuesday into Wednesday. Moisture will return
north by Thursday ahead of the next upstream cold front with
shra/tsra likely Thursday afternoon.

Thus VFR conditions are expected for most of the time, with the
exception being temporary sub-VFR conditions with any shower or
thunderstorm, and during the night with patchy fog and stratus.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
101 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ016-017-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-011715-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-CARROLL-FLOYD-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-
PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
101 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS TO
THE AREA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>015-018>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-011715-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
101 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
203 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NCZ003-VAZ016-032-311830-
SURRY-CARROLL-PATRICK-
203 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN SURRY...SOUTHWESTERN PATRICK AND SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL
COUNTIES...

AT 203 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER LAMBSBURG...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT AIRY...
FLAT ROCK...
CANA...
ARARAT...
AND FANCY GAP.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3658 8084 3676 8050 3675 8050 3655 8041
      3655 8044 3651 8044 3649 8078
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 250DEG 16KT 3656 8072

WP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
210 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NCZ003-019-020-311900-
WILKES-YADKIN-SURRY-
210 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN YADKIN...SOUTHWESTERN SURRY AND NORTHEASTERN WILKES
COUNTIES...

AT 210 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BENHAM...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTH WILKESBORO...
ELKIN...
FAIRVIEW...
JONESVILLE...
AND DOBSON.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3616 8122 3631 8126 3646 8063 3618 8055
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 257DEG 24KT 3628 8097

JR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NCZ002-003-VAZ015-016-311930-
ALLEGHANY-SURRY-CARROLL-GRAYSON-
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN SURRY AND EASTERN ALLEGHANY COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN GRAYSON AND SOUTH CENTRAL CARROLL
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...

AT 300 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER BARRETT...MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPARTA...
BOTTOM...
ENNICE...
PINE RIDGE...
AND ROARING GAP.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3649 8114 3670 8076 3645 8065 3639 8101
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 250DEG 11KT 3652 8093

WP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
307 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NCZ003-019-020-311945-
WILKES-YADKIN-SURRY-
307 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
YADKIN...SOUTHEASTERN SURRY AND SOUTHEASTERN WILKES COUNTIES...

AT 307 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER SWANCREEK...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELKIN...
YADKINVILLE...
JONESVILLE...
BOONVILLE...
AND EAST BEND.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3607 8104 3617 8111 3626 8089 3632 8051
      3612 8048 3611 8050 3609 8051 3605 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 264DEG 18KT 3616 8089

WP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
419 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NCZ001-002-019-312100-
WILKES-ASHE-ALLEGHANY-
419 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHERN WILKES...SOUTHWESTERN ALLEGHANY AND SOUTHEASTERN ASHE
COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

AT 419 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER GLENDALE SPRINGS...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPARTA...
WEST JEFFERSON...
LAUREL SPRINGS...
WILBAR...
AND MC GRADY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3623 8147 3625 8149 3638 8152 3650 8111
      3623 8102
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 257DEG 17KT 3632 8138

JR