Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
124 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A diffuse frontal boundary south of the area will lift back north
overnight before sliding to the east on Friday. Another cold front
will approach from the northwest late Friday and pass across the
region Saturday prior to stalling across North Carolina Saturday
night. This front will remain stuck across the region Sunday into
early next week providing a track for additional showers and
storms into Monday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1005 PM EDT Thursday...

Showers continue to be confined to the NC mountains and foothills,
however some activity is moving into the piedmont area from the
south and south west. Adjusted POP and QPF slightly to reflect
this movement. Will continue to monitor areas East of the Blue
Ridge for activity indicated by HRRR, but successive runs continue
to draw back on any impact.

As of 740 PM EDT Thursday...

Convection mainly confined to the NC mountains/foothills and slow
moving at that. Isolated showers and storms still possible across
Southside VA into the Blue Ridge and SW VA mountains early this
evening but best instability resides over NC.

Previous afternoon discussion...

Satellite imagery still indicates widespread cloud cover across
the region, although enough breaks have developed to allow sunshine
to reach the surface most spots. A few showers have developed
across the higher mountain ridges, but not nearly to the extent
that the rapid update weather forecast models have been calling
for through the day. Still keeping an eye across the Piedmont of
north central North Carolina and the Southside, where satellite
imagery is indicating some cloud enhancement in the more
unstable/higher moisture airmass. This is where we will likely see
a few showers/thunderstorms develop during the evening, although
coverage is expected to remain widely scattered at best. Where
storms do develop, may see one or two reach severe intensity,
capable of producing strong winds and large hail. With loss of
heating after sunset, any showers and thunderstorms will gradually
fade.

Overnight, winds will continue to shift southerly as high
pressure over the northeast dissipates and a cold front sinks
south from the Midwest region. May see a few patches of fog
develop, with better chances where rainfall occurs. Higher
dewpoints and increased mid/level clouds will keep temperatures
slightly warmer tonight compared to last night, and held overnight
lows in the upper 50s/low 60s across the mountains, while the
Piedmont will range in the mid to upper 60s.

Warmer temperatures are expected for Friday as winds shift
southwesterly ahead of the approaching cold front. The downslope
windflow will make for increased sunshine, although a few
disorganized showers/storms are still possible with afternoon
heating. Will see an increase in rain chances late in the day
across southeast West Virginia as the cold front approaches the
Ohio River. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the low
80s west to the upper 80s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

An upper level trough will approach the region Friday night along
with its associated surface cold front. Already in place across the
eastern part of our region will be a weak, stalled boundary. Friday
evening, we expect isolated to scattered showers, and a few
storms, to be over the eastern portion of the region, as well as,
the western sections. Central sections may be skipped by
precipitation. The cold front is forecast to cross the region by
Saturday morning, and then stall along an west-east orientation
near the VA/NC border. Here is where it will remain through the
extent of the weekend. It will act as a focus for daily shower and
storm development across the area with the best coverage along the
front.

Temperatures will remain near or slightly above normal through
Saturday. On Sunday, expect a slight cool down, especially in the
east thanks to the position of the front and increased precipitation
and cloud cover chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...

Little change is expected in the position of the stalled frontal
boundary near the NC/VA border. What will change is the magnitude of
the coverage of the precipitation across the area and its intensity.
The reason involves the approach of a deepening upper trough/low
that will be tracking from the Central Plains states, eastward along
the stalled front into our area. This feature will bring increased
dynamics to the area, plus an increased surge of Gulf of Mexico
moisture into the area. Guidance varies as to how quickly this
trough/low will exit the region to the east. Our best chances for
showers and storms, some of the heavy rain producing side, will be
Monday through Tuesday. Wednesday into Thursday coverage is expected
to trend to an isolated/scattered pattern again.

High temperatures will trend milder through at least Wednesday and
be within a few degrees of normal. Lows will also trend milder
through the period but be five to ten degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 108 AM EDT Friday...

Complex of storms tracking south of MTV will likely impact KDAN
during the next hour or two so including a period of MVFR to IFR
there until coverage fades after 07Z/3AM per latest HRRR.  Otherwise,
increasing low level moisture will support better chances for
lower cigs to also spread north from this area of showers perhaps
making for MVFR cigs including patchy fog north to KBCB/KROA/KLYH.
Also added fog possible in the deeper valleys such as around KLWB
where could see a period of LIFR prior to daybreak.

Expect lower cigs to mix out by mid or late morning Friday as
winds turn more southwest and the weak impulse along the boundary
exits. Thus still appears that most will return to VFR by midday
if not sooner. This should give way to a scattered to broken
cumulus field with any afternoon convection isolated and likely
limited to eastern sections but too iffy to include mention at
this point.

Extended discussion...

Saturday, expect southerly flow to increase threat of showers and
storms in advance of the front espcly over the mountains. The
front stalls across the region Sunday into Tuesday which may
yield some heavier rain and storms. Overall VFR outside storms
except at night with fog/low clouds. Sub-VFR more likely early
next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JR/NF/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1147 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

NCZ003-004-020-010445-
YADKIN-SURRY-STOKES-
1147 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN
YADKIN...SOUTHERN SURRY AND STOKES COUNTIES...

AT 1146 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED ALONG A
LINE FROM FAIRVIEW TO NEAR SHACKTOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FAIRVIEW...
DOBSON...
PILOT MOUNTAIN...
WALNUT COVE...
AND BOONVILLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3637 8088 3655 8040 3654 8003 3626 8004
      3626 8045 3624 8045 3622 8043 3621 8045
      3614 8044 3612 8046 3611 8050 3608 8052
      3607 8056
TIME...MOT...LOC 0346Z 251DEG 22KT 3634 8075 3615 8054

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1247 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

NCZ004-005-010545-
ROCKINGHAM-STOKES-
1247 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT STOKES AND WESTERN
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES...

AT 1246 AM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM NEAR FRANCISCO TO NEAR GERMANTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAYODAN...
MADISON...
WALNUT COVE...
STONEVILLE...
AND DANBURY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3626 8028 3650 8042 3654 8020 3654 7990
      3625 7977
TIME...MOT...LOC 0446Z 258DEG 30KT 3645 8033 3621 8019

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
127 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

NCZ005-VAZ043-010630-
ROCKINGHAM-HENRY-
127 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN ROCKINGHAM AND
HENRY COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE CITY OF MARTINSVILLE THROUGH 230 PM
EDT...

AT 126 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR PENNS STORE TO NEAR BETHANY...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EDEN...
REIDSVILLE...
MARTINSVILLE...
WENTWORTH...
AND AXTON.

THIS INCLUDES THE MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY AND MARTINSVILLE AIRPORT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3625 7970 3654 7986 3655 8005 3660 8005
      3681 7974 3683 7966 3685 7964 3654 7971
      3654 7951 3625 7953
TIME...MOT...LOC 0526Z 243DEG 21KT 3656 8006 3629 7980

RAB

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>