Alert archive / Virginia / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

June 15, 2016Craig County, Montgomery County, City of Radford, Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this special weather statement at Jun 15, 2016, 5:21 PM EDT for Craig County, Montgomery County, City of Radford, Virginia. It was in force for 54 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 15, 2016, 5:21 PM EDT (21:21 UTC)
Expired: Jun 15, 2016, 6:15 PM EDT
In force: 54 min
Issued by: NWS Blacksburg, VA

Counties City of Radford, VA, Craig County, VA, Montgomery County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1029 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 143 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 163 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 15, 4:55 PM EDT, 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 15, 4:55 PM EDT, 26 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
455 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front extends from Ohio into central Virginia. This front
will move northeast into northern Virginia overnight. An upper
level Low over Wisconsin will move southeast into the southern
Great Lakes by Thursday morning. This Low will then move southeast
crossing the Mid Atlantic states Thursday night and Friday. High
pressure will build across the region for weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

A warm front extends from Columbus, Ohio to Danville, Virginia.
Clusters of thunderstorms along this front were moving east-southeast.
The long lived thunderstorm cluster of storms that moved
southeast out of Ohio this morning, crossed West Virginia this
afternoon and will now move across southwestern Virginia along the
warm front this evening. The main threat is frequent lightning,
but can't rule out a damaging wind gust per water-loading from
cell mergers and potential for gust front interactions. Other
storms which developed over the NC mountains during the afternoon
will also move east across the NC piedmont. Again, main potential
will be for frequent lightning, but can't rule out isolated strong
wind gusts per cell mergers and gust front interactions.

All activity is expected to wane after loss of daytime heating
with gradual demise of shower/storm coverage between 9PM and
midnight. Maintained chance pops mainly western CWA after midnight to
account for any late night activity which may move downstream from
the Ohio Valley associated with storm clusters farther upstream
along the warm front.

On Thursday there remains a fair bit of uncertainty as to whether
we will see any shower activity during the day with model
consensus on higher pops later in the day and more so for Thursday
evening. Warm front will be just north of the forecast area
Thursday which means we will be in the warm sector, temperatures
soaring into the lower to mid 90s across the foothills and
piedmont per development of westerly downslope compressional flow
on the east side of the Appalachians.

The upper low over the southern Great Lakes Thursday morning is
forecast to track southeast and into WV by Thursday evening. This
is problematic since this feature will arrive during peak
heating with likelihood of a significant Mesoscale Convective
System (MCS) to evolve over the eastern Ohio valley and move
southeast through WV and into VA. Main concern will be damaging
winds. In addition, models also suggest strong directional shear
to be in place along warm front which will be somewhere along the
I-64 corridor in VA...0-3km SR Helicities near 300. So in addition
to damaging straight line winds there will also be the risk for
tornadoes.

Models indicate arrival of the MCS will not occur until late in
the afternoon...developing over Eastern Ohio early in the
afternoon...then crossing WV and into VA during the 5PM-9PM time
frame...exiting the CWA by midnight. After midnight...uncertainty
arises as to how long precipitation will linger. Synoptic models
continue to advertise strong forcing over the forecast area as the
upper low passes overhead. Loss of instability however, means this
activity may continue as showers, but the threat of thunder should
wane.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

The vigorous upper level low will be overhead early Friday then
move southeast and off the North Carolina Coast Friday night.
Lingering showers can be expected Friday...possibly a thunderstorm
west of I-77 where enough sun may allow for some weak instability.
Once the low clears the forecast area later in the day the trend
will be for clearing from north to south with dry air returning
for Saturday as high pressure builds in from the north and west.

Temperatures will cool notably Friday into Saturday in the wake of
the departing weather system...northeasterly winds introducing a
less humid airmass for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

Deep layered ridge of high pressure is forecast from the southern
Rockies to the Mid-Atlantic with nearly zonal flow along the
U.S./Canadian border. A closed low is forecast over the western
Atlantic but far enough east to minimize sensible weather threats
along the East coast, and certainly not a player for our forecast
area.  As such, expect a multi-day dry spell, under clear skies and
light winds. Next threat for showers will be mid week as short wave
tracks along Canadian border into Great Lakes, dragging a front into
the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic late Tuesday into
Wednesday.

Near normal temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday then above
normal Tuesday ahead of the approaching front.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the mountains
this afternoon. Bluefield will be the early target, then
Blacksburg and Roanoke through the rest of the afternoon.
Currently watching a more organized line of convection moving
into WV at 1 PM. This line has its eyes on Lewisburg around 4 PM but
may weaken as light rain this morning has lowered instabilities
over the Greenbrier Valley. However, a few hours of full sunshine
could increase instabilities and this line may link up with
scattered mountain convection to produce some storm storms this
evening. We reduce the duration of TSRA to a few hours this
evening (5p-8p) with showers fading through the night. Areas
seeing rain through this evening will likely have patchy fog
through 9AM Thursday.

High confidence in cigs through the TAF valid period.
High confidence in vsbys through 06Z.
High confidence in wind direction ans speed through the TAF valid
period.
Medium confidence in TSRA potential and timing.

Extended discussion...

An area of low pressure aloft will track into the region from the
north late Thursday into Friday. A line of convection appears
likely with this feature, but the exact placement and timing of
remains somewhat unresolved. Best indication at this point is
across northern/eastern VA Thursday afternoon, then into southern
VA/northern NC Thursday evening/Thursday night. Sub-VFR conditions
may linger into Friday with stratiform precipiation behind the
upper low. By Saturday, conditions should return to VFR with good
flying conditions expected to continue into Sunday as high
pressure builds south behind the departing low.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RCS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 15, 4:27 PM EDT, 54 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
427 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-162030-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
427 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

CLUSTERS OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...DRIFTING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY LATER THURSDAY.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 15, 4:23 PM EDT, 58 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
423 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

NCZ003-020-152115-
YADKIN-SURRY-
423 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL YADKIN AND
CENTRAL SURRY COUNTIES...

AT 422 PM EDT...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER FAIRVIEW... MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. ALSO...PEA SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT AIRY...
FAIRVIEW...
FLAT ROCK...
DOBSON...
AND PILOT MOUNTAIN.

LAT...LON 3622 8073 3640 8088 3655 8062 3655 8044
      3640 8045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 233DEG 19KT 3635 8073

RS

Special weather statement, Jun 15, 4:43 PM EDT, 38 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
443 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

VAZ011-WVZ043-044-152130-
GILES-SUMMERS-MONROE-
443 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN GILES...SOUTHERN SUMMERS AND MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 442 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER BUCK...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HINTON...
PEMBROKE...
PETERSTOWN...
UNION...
AND PIPESTEM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3768 8044 3756 8046 3732 8061 3739 8084
      3741 8087 3743 8086 3753 8101 3767 8089
      3770 8082 3772 8065
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 279DEG 34KT 3760 8082

JJM

Special weather statement, Jun 15, 4:51 PM EDT, 30 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
451 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

VAZ011-013-014-017-152130-
MONTGOMERY-FLOYD-PULASKI-GILES-
451 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
PULASKI...SOUTHEASTERN GILES...NORTHWESTERN FLOYD...CITY OF RADFORD
AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 450 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER DUBLIN...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLACKSBURG...
RADFORD...
PULASKI...
DUBLIN...
AND POPLAR HILL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3701 8084 3728 8082 3729 8045 3695 8046
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 276DEG 17KT 3710 8074

JJM

Local storm report, Jun 15, 5:10 PM EDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
510 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             PULASKI                 37.05N 80.80W
06/15/2016  E0.25 INCH       PULASKI            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS HAIL OF PEA SIZE WITHIN THE CITY OF
            PULASKI, VA.

&&

JMORROW

Special weather statement, Jun 15, 5:14 PM EDT, 7 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
514 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

VAZ019-WVZ507-508-152200-
ALLEGHANY-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
514 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
WESTERN ALLEGHANY AND GREENBRIER COUNTIES...

AT 514 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM QUINWOOD THROUGH ASBURY TO NEAR WOLFCREEK...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALLEGHANY...
LEWISBURG...
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...
RONCEVERTE...
AND ALDERSON.

THIS INCLUDES THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE FAIRGROUNDS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3806 8028 3804 8021 3804 8016 3776 8014
      3763 8021 3764 8026 3769 8029 3769 8033
      3771 8035 3769 8036 3769 8038 3771 8038
      3770 8039 3772 8040 3769 8046 3773 8066
      3788 8063 3809 8079 3808 8071 3811 8066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 291DEG 25KT 3806 8069 3785 8054 3769 8057

JJM

Special weather statement, Jun 15, 5:21 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
521 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

VAZ011-014-018-WVZ044-152215-
CRAIG-MONTGOMERY-GILES-MONROE-
521 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
WESTERN CRAIG...NORTHEASTERN GILES...CITY OF RADFORD...MONTGOMERY AND
EASTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 521 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM PICKAWAY TO EGGLESTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLACKSBURG...
CHRISTIANSBURG...
RADFORD...
SHAWSVILLE...
AND PILOT.

THIS INCLUDES VIRGINIA TECH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3769 8038 3769 8029 3762 8020 3736 8022
      3733 8026 3723 8019 3711 8018 3702 8035
      3698 8049 3701 8052 3699 8055 3706 8055
      3712 8060 3714 8053 3718 8057 3720 8051
      3718 8059 3728 8063 3769 8044 3771 8040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 295DEG 24KT 3765 8053 3730 8060

JJM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 15, 4:51 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Pulaski, City of Radford	39 min
Jun 15, 5:26 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Floyd	49 min
Jun 15, 5:51 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Botetourt, Craig, Montgomery, Roanoke, City of Roanoke, City of Salem	39 min
Jun 15, 6:06 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Carroll, Patrick	54 min
Jun 15, 6:12 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Floyd	33 min
Jun 15, 6:29 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Bedford, Franklin	61 min
Jun 15, 6:47 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Roanoke, City of Roanoke, City of Salem	3 hr
Jun 15, 7:16 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Henry, City of Martinsville	59 min
Jun 15, 7:49 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Pittsylvania, City of Danville	56 min
Jun 15, 4:23 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Surry	52 min
Jun 15, 7:31 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Rockingham	29 min
Jun 15, 3:37 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Mercer	23 min
Jun 15, 4:00 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Mercer, Summers	60 min
Jun 15, 4:43 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Monroe, Summers	47 min
Jun 15, 5:14 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Greenbrier	46 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Virginia, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.