Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS Blacksburg, VA

700 
WWUS51 KRNK 280116
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
916 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

NCC157-VAC143-590-280125-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0257.000000T0000Z-160928T0130Z/
ROCKINGHAM NC-PITTSYLVANIA VA-CITY OF DANVILLE VA-
916 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ROCKINGHAM...AND
SOUTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF DANVILLE
HAS BEEN CANCELLED
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS REPORTS OF ANY WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3646 7951 3654 7946 3649 7925 3649 7922
      3654 7921 3642 7923
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 249DEG 14KT 3661 7933 

$$

NCC033-280130-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0257.000000T0000Z-160928T0130Z/
CASWELL NC-
916 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN CASWELL COUNTY...

AT 915 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PROVIDENCE... MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BETHEL...
PROVIDENCE...
HAMER...
AND PELHAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FOR YOUR
SAFETY...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS REPORTS OF ANY WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7951 3654 7946 3649 7925 3649 7922
      3654 7921 3642 7923
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 249DEG 14KT 3661 7933 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RAB

019 
WWUS51 KRNK 280138
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
938 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

NCC033-280146-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0257.000000T0000Z-160928T0130Z/
CASWELL NC-
938 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN CASWELL COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA INTO
EASTERN CASWELL COUNTY. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM
AND OTHER NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS REPORTS OF ANY WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING STILL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CASWELL COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3646 7951 3654 7946 3649 7925 3649 7922
      3654 7921 3642 7923
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 249DEG 14KT 3664 7924 

$$

RAB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
354 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front with weak areas of low pressure extended from
the Mid Atlantic states to Louisiana. Another cold front will
track through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday and
Wednesday night. This low pressure system over the Mid Atlantic
will move slowly northeast into New England this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 335 PM EDT Tuesday...

Front was hung up along the Blue Ridge this afternoon. Lowered
clouds had just cleared out of the piedmont after 2PM. MSAS
analysis showed east of the front that the lifted index values
were as high as -5 where there has been breaks in the clouds
today. Highest probability for precipitation remains east of a
Lynchburg to Wilkesboro line. Expect a sharp gradient on the
western side of the clouds and precipitation tonight and
Wednesday.

Mean flow from 850-500mb will be from the southwest tonight and
Wednesday which will result in little movement of the surface
front. Axis of deepest moisture and lift will remain over the
piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina on Wednesday. Models fill
low clouds and some fog back in overnight, especially east of the
Blue Ridge. Amount of clearing on Wednesday will be the biggest
influence on afternoon high temperatures. Fog is also expected to
form overnight in the western river valleys.

Have lowered minimum temperatures in southeast West Virginia based
on the lack of cloud cover and the surface dew points that have
lowered in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Otherwise stayed close to
bias corrected MAV guidance for lows tonight and highs on
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Closed upper low center in the Ohio Valley Wednesday evening will
move eastward and reach Eastern Kentucky by Thursday night.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the shortwave
riding northward along the frontal boundary will continue Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night as the low digs south. The SWODY2 has
highlighted a marginal risk for severe weather east of the Blue
Ridge mountains. Low temperatures Wednesday night will range from
the mid 40s in the northwest mountains to the lower 60s in the
Piedmont. Coop guidance suggest that a few lower 40s may be
possible.

A cold front will drop southeast out of the Ohio valley and move
east into the Appalachians on Thursday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop ahead and along the frontal boundary.
Some the thunderstorms could be strong with hail, gusty winds and
heavy downpours. An impressive low to mid level lapse rates combined
with very low freezing heights across the area could help the hail
potential. High temperatures on Thursday will vary from around 60
degrees in the west to the lower 70s in the East. Cloudy conditions
with scattered showers will continue Thursday night. The best chance
for rain will be across the north. Low temperatures Thursday night
will vary from lower 40s in the mountains to the mid 50s in the
Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Closed upper low over Kentucky Friday morning lifts northward in the
Ohio Valley this weekend. The low center continue to push into the
Great lakes by Sunday evening and New England by Monday. The low will
move into the Atlantic ocean on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the potential
for tropical low development across the Caribbean may lead to a
threat for the southeast early next week. This is being monitored by
the NHC and WPC.

Temperatures will start cooler for Friday with clouds along with
unsettled weather and improve Saturday, then moderate Sunday into
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Tuesday...

A front extended from central Virginia to western North Carolina
this afternoon. There will be little movement of the front tonight
and Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon east of the
front, with the best probability of precipitation at KLYH and
KDAN. Medium to high confidence that the showers and thunderstorms
will form around 21Z/5PM. Gusty winds are possible with any of
the stronger storms but the chance is too low at any individual
TAF site to include in the forecast at this time.

Models, especially the NAM, showed IFR to LIFR ceilings east of
the front overnight. High confidence that KLYH will have LIFR
ceilings after midnight. LIFR ceilings are possible at KDAN too
but confidence was too low to include in the forecast. Over the
mountains with little cloud cover, fog will form in the river
valleys. Expect LIFR fog and stratus at KLWB after 2AM. Low
confidence about how long it will take the low clouds in the
foothills and piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina to lift
after sunrise.

Extended aviation discussion...

A deep upper low will remain over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley
through Friday. This will keep variable clouds, MVFR cigs, and
periods of -SHRA across the region through much of the period.
Saturday is the most likely day to be drier and have VFR
conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
432 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

VAZ034-035-044>047-058-059-280845-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-
CHARLOTTE-
432 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD LEAD TO RAPID RISES OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ022>024-032-033-043-280845-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-
ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-HENRY-
432 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-280845-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-
SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
432 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RCS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
705 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

NCZ019-020-280000-
WILKES-YADKIN-
705 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN YADKIN AND
EASTERN WILKES COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

AT 703 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM ROARING
RIVER TO WILKESBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTH WILKESBORO...
ELKIN...
WILKESBORO...
JONESVILLE...
AND RONDA.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3604 8111 3604 8113 3617 8125 3636 8092
      3631 8087 3624 8087 3624 8085 3625 8081
      3621 8075 3603 8109
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 239DEG 26KT 3624 8094

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
713 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE BASSETT            36.78N 79.97W
09/27/2016                   HENRY              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN OVER ROAD AT 600 BLOCK OF BASSET DR. TIME RADAR
            ESTIMATED.

&&

JRUCKMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
716 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     HAIL             BASSETT                 36.77N 79.98W
09/27/2016  E0.50 INCH       HENRY              VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0518 PM     HAIL             BASSETT                 36.77N 79.98W
09/27/2016  E0.50 INCH       HENRY              VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 PM     HAIL             ROARING RIVER           36.22N 81.00W
09/27/2016  E0.50 INCH       WILKES             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RBEASLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
717 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW BASSETT            36.75N 80.00W
09/27/2016                   HENRY              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON MARY HUNTER DR. TIME RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

JRUCKMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
726 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W BASSETT             36.76N 80.04W
09/27/2016                   HENRY              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN OVER ROAD AT 7100 BLOCK OF FAIRYSTONE PARK HWY.
            TIME RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

JRUCKMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
749 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

VAZ043-044-280030-
PITTSYLVANIA-HENRY-
749 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN PITTSYLVANIA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN CITY OF
DANVILLE...

AT 749 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CASCADE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DANVILLE...
CHATHAM...
BLAIRS...
DRY FORK...
AND AIKEN SUMMIT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3662 7977 3683 7940 3664 7928 3654 7959
      3654 7971
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 239DEG 26KT 3660 7965

RAB