Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Blacksburg, VA

April 28, 2016Stokes County, Surry County, North Carolina

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 28, 2016, 4:13 PM EDT for Stokes County, Surry County, North Carolina. It was in force for 62 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Apr 28, 2016, 4:13 PM EDT (20:13 UTC)
Expired: Apr 28, 2016, 5:15 PM EDT
In force: 62 min
Issued by: NWS Blacksburg, VA
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Apr 28, 4:37 PM EDT	HAIL 1.75	1 W Capella, NC	HAIL THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AS WELL AS SMALL LIMBS BROKEN.
Apr 28, 4:40 PM EDT	HAIL 0.5	3 E Pilot Mountain, NC

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 24 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 50 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 236 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -69 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 622 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 114 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 128 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

385 
WUUS51 KRNK 282013
SVRRNK
NCC169-171-282115-
/O.NEW.KRNK.SV.W.0022.160428T2013Z-160428T2115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
413 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL SURRY COUNTY IN NORTH CAROLINA...
  SOUTHERN STOKES COUNTY IN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 413 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PILOT
  MOUNTAIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PILOT MOUNTAIN...
  WALNUT COVE...
  KING...
  GERMANTON...
  AND PINNACLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. FOR YOUR SAFETY...MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8045 3643 8056 3644 8034 3626 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 303DEG 27KT 3639 8049 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

PW

3 follow-up statements

406 
WWUS51 KRNK 282035
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
435 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

NCC171-282044-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-160428T2115Z/
SURRY NC-
435 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
EAST CENTRAL SURRY COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3626 8045 3643 8044 3644 8034 3626 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 289DEG 24KT 3637 8032 

$$

NCC169-282115-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-160428T2115Z/
STOKES NC-
435 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR
SOUTHERN STOKES COUNTY...

AT 434 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CAPELLA...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WALNUT COVE...
KING...
GERMANTON...
PINNACLE...
AND HANGING ROCK STATE PARK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FOR YOUR
SAFETY...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8045 3643 8044 3644 8034 3626 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 289DEG 24KT 3637 8032 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JH

113 
WWUS51 KRNK 282051
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
451 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

NCC169-282115-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-160428T2115Z/
STOKES NC-
451 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR
SOUTHEASTERN STOKES COUNTY...

AT 451 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WALNUT COVE...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WALNUT COVE...
GERMANTON...
HANGING ROCK STATE PARK...
AND BELEWS LAKE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT
STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8025 3640 8027 3626 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 303DEG 27KT 3630 8019 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

PW

987 
WWUS51 KRNK 282114
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
514 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

NCC169-282124-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-160428T2115Z/
STOKES NC-
514 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN STOKES COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM EDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3626 8025 3640 8027 3626 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 303DEG 27KT 3630 8019 

$$

PW

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 28, 3:24 PM EDT, 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 28, 3:24 PM EDT, 49 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
324 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT
CROSSING THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FORECAST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WEDGE HAS HELD ALL DAY FROM CHARLOTTE COUNTY NORTHWEST TO
BEDFORD/AMHERST. VIS SAT LOOP SHOWS MINOR EROSION OF THE WEDGE AND
WITH 1018 MB HIGH OVER SRN PA WILL SEE LITTLE NE MOVEMENT OF THE
EROSION. CONVECTION OVER THE ALLEGHANYS WILL WORK EWD INTO THE WEDGE
BUT ONLY ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED...SO SVR THREAT ALMOST NIL FOR
LYH TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST SUNSHINE MOST OF THE DAY HAS ALLOWED MUCAPES TO
EXCEED 2000 J/KG FROM THE NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...NORTHWEST TO
THE SRN BLUE RIDGE OF VA. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE AREA TO WATCH
CONCERNING SVR THREAT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS 40-45KTS IN THIS AREA.
UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY WEST-EAST...AND FAIRLY QUICK. THIS COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR ON SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN
CLUSTERS...AS SHEAR MAY TEAR INTO THE TCU. ANY CELLS THAT CAN
OVERCOME THIS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GETTING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.

LOW PRESSURE SITUATED FROM INDIANA TO THE NC MTNS WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST TO THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE AS SUCH IN OUR CWA FOR A FEW HOURS...SO LOOKING AT
HIGH CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...BETTER SUPPORT STARTS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME...AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SHOULD SEE THINGS CLEAR AND DRY OUT LATE TONIGHT...EXCEPT EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE SOME LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS.

SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SYSTEM FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON...AFTER SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NC PIEDMONT...TO MID
TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE INTO THE BLUE RIDGE
AND EAST TO BUCKINGHAM IF IT DOES NOT CLEAR OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE END OF THE MONTH INTO
EARLY MAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH
ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
EAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE
BETWEEN THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL TRAVEL EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE...WARM
MOIST AIR AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS IN THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THEN...A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL ERODE THE WEDGE AND KICK THE RAIN EAST AND OFF SHORE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE EROSION OF THE WEDGE IS ALWAYS A FORECAST
CHALLENGE AND MAY BE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ON MODELS. IF WEDGES
ERODES AS FORECASTED HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH
READINGS FROM NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. A WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED TOWARDS GFS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DRIER AIR OVER THE
WET ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. HARD TO JUDGE HOW FAR
NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTED WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND
WITH COOLING TREND AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOW CLOUDS WITH WEDGE FROM DAN/LYH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR CIGS BY 21Z
AT DAN...BUT NOT CONFIDENT LYH WILL...SO KEPT THEM MVFR THEN IFR
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE MAINLY
SCATTERED...SO NOT PUTTING PREDOMINANT IN THE TAFS YET. LWB SEEING
SOME CLOSE BY AS OF 130 PM EDT.

SHOULD SEE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE WEST
TO EAST THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE
EVENING...THEN CONCERN SHIFTS BACK TO LOW CIGS AND/OR FOG. WEDGE
MAY HANG THRU FRIDAY MORNING AT LYH/DAN...SO EXPECT AT LEAST IFR
TO LOW END MVFR CIGS HERE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOG WILL BE
LIMITED BUT SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 3-6SM.

FURTHER WEST THE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SW TO TO NW AND THINK
ROA/BCB WILL BE MAINLY VFR THOUGH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE.
BLF SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP TO VFR CONDITIONS BUT THINK LWB
WILL SEE FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS SO LEANED TOWARD IFR CIGS FOR NOW.

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN PLACEMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT....BUT MEDIUM OTHERWISE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR AND VFR RETURN AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF US TUESDAY SO MAY SEE VFR AGAIN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 28, 12:45 PM EDT, 3 hours 28 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1245 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-032-033-043-044-WVZ042>044-507-508-
291645-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-HENRY-
PITTSYLVANIA-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
WESTERN GREENBRIER-
1245 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ022-023-034-045-058-059-291645-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-BEDFORD-CAMPBELL-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
1245 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ024-035-046-047-291645-
ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
1245 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 28, 2:40 PM EDT, 1 hour 33 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
240 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

NCZ003-004-VAZ016-032-281945-
SURRY-STOKES-CARROLL-PATRICK-
240 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN SURRY...NORTHWESTERN STOKES...SOUTHWESTERN PATRICK AND
SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTIES...

AT 240 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER CANA...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT AIRY...
FRANCISCO...
ARARAT...
CANA...
AND COLLINSTOWN.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3653 8072 3661 8072 3669 8035 3649 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 265DEG 14KT 3657 8066

PW

Special weather statement, Apr 28, 2:54 PM EDT, 1 hour 19 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
254 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VAZ033-044-282000-
PITTSYLVANIA-FRANKLIN-
254 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN PITTSYLVANIA AND EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

AT 254 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR ROCKY MOUNT...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCKY MOUNT...
PENHOOK...
SOUTHERN SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE...
UNION HALL...
AND SONTAG.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3698 7993 3704 7957 3703 7956 3704 7956
      3704 7954 3703 7953 3703 7952 3702 7950
      3691 7948 3690 7992
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 263DEG 18KT 3695 7989

PW

Special weather statement, Apr 28, 3:03 PM EDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
303 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VAZ016-017-032-282000-
FLOYD-CARROLL-PATRICK-
303 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTH CENTRAL PATRICK...SOUTHERN FLOYD AND NORTHEASTERN CARROLL
COUNTIES...

AT 303 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR DUGSPUR...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FLOYD...
WOOLWINE...
WILLIS...
ROCKY KNOB RECREATION AREA...
AND BUFFALO RIDGE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3678 8061 3687 8061 3694 8023 3688 8022
      3687 8023 3687 8022 3674 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 266DEG 23KT 3683 8056

PW

Special weather statement, Apr 28, 3:42 PM EDT, 31 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
342 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

NCZ003-004-282030-
SURRY-STOKES-
342 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
EAST CENTRAL SURRY AND SOUTHWESTERN STOKES COUNTIES...

AT 342 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WHITE PLAINS...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT AIRY...
DOBSON...
PILOT MOUNTAIN...
KING...
AND LEVEL CROSS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3637 8076 3648 8072 3643 8024 3626 8029
      3626 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 281DEG 24KT 3641 8066

PW

Special weather statement, Apr 28, 3:44 PM EDT, 29 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
344 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

NCZ019-282045-
WILKES-
344 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHERN WILKES COUNTY...

AT 344 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER MAPLE SPRINGS...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTH WILKESBORO...
WILKESBORO...
BOOMER...
MILLERS CREEK...
AND WILKESBORO RESERVOIR.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR WEST KERR SCOTT RESERVOIR...GET OUT OF THE
WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN
STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO
SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3611 8146 3627 8142 3620 8088 3606 8089
      3606 8098 3603 8107
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 281DEG 24KT 3618 8137

PW

Local storm report, Apr 28, 3:48 PM EDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     HAIL             1 NE FRANCISCO          36.51N 80.35W
04/28/2016  E0.50 INCH       STOKES             NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

JRUCKMAN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 27, 8:20 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Ashe	55 min
Apr 27, 8:51 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Alleghany, Ashe	54 min
Apr 28, 3:06 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Stokes, Surry	54 min
Apr 28, 3:42 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Stokes, Surry	48 min
Apr 28, 3:44 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Wilkes	61 min
Apr 28, 3:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Caswell, Rockingham, Stokes	77 min
Apr 28, 4:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Rockingham, Stokes	35 min
Apr 28, 5:12 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Caswell	33 min
Apr 28, 5:16 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Rockingham	59 min
Apr 28, 6:49 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Caswell	56 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.