Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Blacksburg, VA

779 
WWUS51 KRNK 192341
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
741 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCC171-192351-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0198.000000T0000Z-160720T0015Z/
SURRY NC-
741 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN SURRY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3606 8085 3624 8085 3625 8074 3625 8062
      3614 8044 3612 8046 3612 8049 3611 8051
      3608 8051 3605 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 319DEG 28KT 3604 8051 

$$

NCC197-200015-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0198.000000T0000Z-160720T0015Z/
YADKIN NC-
741 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT
FOR YADKIN COUNTY...

AT 741 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HUNTSVILLE...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
YADKINVILLE...
JONESVILLE...
BOONVILLE...
BROOKS CROSSROADS...
AND HUNTSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS. FOR YOUR SAFETY...MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 8085 3624 8085 3625 8074 3625 8062
      3614 8044 3612 8046 3612 8049 3611 8051
      3608 8051 3605 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 319DEG 28KT 3604 8051 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RAB

056 
WWUS51 KRNK 200015
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
815 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCC197-200025-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0198.000000T0000Z-160720T0015Z/
YADKIN NC-
815 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR YADKIN COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3606 8085 3624 8085 3625 8074 3625 8062
      3614 8044 3612 8046 3612 8049 3611 8051
      3608 8051 3605 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 319DEG 28KT 3585 8030 

$$

RAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
341 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drift southeast across the region this
evening before passing into the Carolinas overnight. Weak high
pressure follows the front with drier weather for much of the
remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 339 PM EDT Tuesday...

Previous updated for higher pops/stronger storms to reflect
issuance of severe thunderstorm watch 398 for counties east of the
Blue Ridge through early this evening.

Surface front currently drifting through the extreme northern
portion of the area should finally spill south and through the
region after sunset. Ahead of the boundary still seeing the
potential for at least scattered deeper convection but so far
limited via weak northwest downslope flow, and earlier mid deck
that slowed the onset of instability over the west. Latest HRRR
continues to suggest that the current convergence area heading off
east/southeast of the Blue Ridge to push southeast in the next
few hours with only widely scattered coverage through about
midnight and mainly north-east. This looks basically on track
given overall weak instability and lack of much cloud development
across the west where drier air aloft continues to invade on
better nw flow aloft. Think mostly scattered pops for the most
part which may be too much over the northwest sections before only
having isolated coverage southeast overnight ahead of the dewpoint
boundary. Likely still moist enough in the valleys for fog late,
otherwise clearing overnight with lows low/mid 60s west to upper
60s east.

Weak high pressure builds to the north on Wednesday with good
drying seen aloft in forecast soundings across the region. Added
dry entrainment should also help dry out the low levels enough to
avoid convection except perhaps the higher ridges down in the
mountains of northwest NC. Thus left in a token shower pop there
given decent instability and weak late day convergence between
easterly flow in the lee of the ridges, and weak northwest/variable
trajectories over the west. Otherwise should be mainly sunny under
weak subsidence and slightly less humid with dewpoints falling a
bit espcly north and west. Highs still around 90 Blue Ridge east
and low/mid 80s rest of the mountains, as heating of dry air
should offset any weak/brief cooling seen aloft behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

The northern trof over the northeastern part of the country will dip a
bit further south as the broad upper ridge over the central part of the
country begins to flatten out. This will bring us seasonably warm
temperatures for Thursday as high pressure moves into the middle
Atlantic region, though there will still be a chance for some scattered
orographically forced convection mainly along the Blue Ridge. Then as
the high moves off to the east we will get back into southerly flow as
a frontal boundary approaches from the northwest. This will allow the
heat and humidity to build throughout the weekend with air temperatures
reading the middle/upper 90s and heat index values approaching 110 for
locations in the piedmont, a bit cooler in the elevations along and
west of the Blue Ridge. Also worth noting is that temperatures at night
will remain warm with lower/middle 70s east of the Ridge so there will
be little opportunity for folks to recover from the heat of the day.
Definitely important to take breaks from the heat and remain well
hydrated in the days ahead.

Our chances for thunderstorms will also be increasing in the warm and
unstable environment, but dynamic forcing is weak so any severe threat
seems limited to pulse activity and very heavy rain as precipitable
water values start creeping above 1.5 inches as we head into the first
part weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

By Sunday the upper pattern will have transitioned to a quasi zonal
regime with the jet stream riding well to our north. This will keep us
in the heat and humidity through the first part of next week. The zonal
flow will result in little push to get fronts trough the region and as
a result, a washed out frontal boundary combined with a lee/thermal
trof will keep an elevated chance for thunderstorms across the region
on Sunday, followed by another weak front moving in from the northwest
and continuing our chances for thunderstorms as it washes out over the
area Tuesday. Air temperatures and heat index values will remain at
hazardous levels on Sunday especially across the piedmont, with only a
slight tempering of the heat through the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Weak cool front continues to sag toward the region from the north
preceded by quite a bit of mid cloudiness along/east of the Blue
Ridge in response to lift within weak difluence aloft. However
expect this canopy to push southeast shortly while giving way to
a developing scattered to broken VFR cumulus field between 4-6K
feet this afternoon.

In addition, heating combined with this low level moisture ahead
of the boundary should result in development of at least scattered
showers and storms during the afternoon. This should make for
periods of MVFR/IFR espcly across eastern/southern sections with
the KLYH-KDAN corridor, and points south/east the most likely
area to have a tsra impact an airport directly into early this
evening. Therefore inserting a tempo group for localized lower
conditions in convection with some gusty winds also possible. More
isolated nature coverage expected west of the Blue Ridge where
will just include a vicinity mention of a shra/tsra this
afternoon. Most organized convection if any should move south by
sunset with drier air aloft spilling in from the north overnight.
However moist ground conditions along with possible lingering
higher dewpoints across the south/east likely to give rise to
more fog/stratus east and patchy valley fog west late. This
supports a period of MVFR/IFR in spots late with uncertainty at
KBLF about seeing any low clouds/fog so including less there than
models suggest.

Drier air should win out on Wednesday with widespread VFR once low
clouds and fog burn off during the morning. An isolated mountain
shower or storm may still be possible with heating but not enough
to include any mention Wednesday afternoon.

Extended aviation discussion...

Strong high pressure aloft will bridge east across the region
Thursday into next weekend. Cant totally rule out an isolated
storm each afternoon/evening through the period but appears
overall VFR outside of the typical late night valley fog in spots.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
338 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009>020-022>024-032-033-043-201945-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-
FRANKLIN-HENRY-
338 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A
COLD FRONT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ007-WVZ042>044-507-508-201945-
TAZEWELL-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
338 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ034-035-044>047-058-059-201945-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-
CHARLOTTE-
338 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER COULD OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
652 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S DANBURY             36.32N 80.21W
07/19/2016                   STOKES             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            THUNDERSTORM WINDS RESULTED IN AT LEAST TWO TREES DOWN
            TEMPORARILY CLOISING ROADS BETWEEN DANBURY AND GERMANTON
            NC.

&&

JMORROW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
653 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SSE DANBURY           36.33N 80.17W
07/19/2016                   STOKES             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            THUNDERSTORM WINDS RESULTED IN AT LEAST TWO TREES DOWN
            TEMPORARILY CLOISING ROADS BETWEEN DANBURY AND GERMANTON
            NC.

&&

JMORROW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
659 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW GLASGOW            37.67N 79.51W
07/19/2016                   ROCKBRIDGE         VA   911 CALL CENTER

            THUNDERSTORM WINDS RESULTED IN ONE TREE DOWN NEAR THE
            NATURAL BRIDGE SAFARI PARK.

&&

JMORROW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
701 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GLASGOW                 37.63N 79.45W
07/19/2016                   ROCKBRIDGE         VA   911 CALL CENTER

            THUNDERSTORM WINDS RESULTED IN A TREE DOWN WITHIN THE
            COMMUNITY OF GLASGOW, VA.

&&

JMORROW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
701 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ003-020-200000-
YADKIN-SURRY-
701 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT YADKIN AND SURRY COUNTIES...

AT 659 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER CRUTCHFIELD...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MOUNT
AIRY...ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT AIRY...
ELKIN...
FAIRVIEW...
FLAT ROCK...
AND YADKINVILLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3605 8079 3622 8088 3633 8087 3636 8091
      3637 8093 3639 8095 3656 8064 3640 8045
      3624 8045 3622 8043 3621 8045 3614 8044
      3612 8046 3612 8049 3611 8051 3606 8051
      3605 8053
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 313DEG 27KT 3628 8073

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
703 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW GLASGOW           37.64N 79.51W
07/19/2016                   ROCKBRIDGE         VA   911 CALL CENTER

            THUNDERSTORM WINDS RESULTED IN A TREE DOWN AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF FORGE ROAD AND SHEPARDS RUN.

&&

JMORROW