Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Blacksburg, VA

801 
WWUS51 KRNK 191911
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
311 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

VAC009-019-163-191930-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0194.000000T0000Z-160719T1930Z/
AMHERST VA-ROCKBRIDGE VA-BEDFORD VA-
311 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR
WEST CENTRAL AMHERST...SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKBRIDGE AND NORTH CENTRAL
BEDFORD COUNTIES...

AT 310 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WAS
LOCATED OVER GLASGOW... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GLASGOW...
BIG ISLAND...
SNOWDEN...
AND NATURAL BRIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT
STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 7955 3766 7950 3766 7945 3764 7938
      3756 7925 3749 7945
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 323DEG 8KT 3760 7945 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JJM

742 
WWUS51 KRNK 191928
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
328 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

VAC009-019-163-191937-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0194.000000T0000Z-160719T1930Z/
AMHERST VA-ROCKBRIDGE VA-BEDFORD VA-
328 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
WEST CENTRAL AMHERST...SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKBRIDGE AND NORTH CENTRAL
BEDFORD COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM EDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

BE ADVISED THAT...WHILE THIS WARNING HAS ENDED...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF AMHERST AND
BEDFORD COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA UNTIL 415PM EDT.

LAT...LON 3763 7955 3766 7950 3766 7945 3764 7938
      3756 7925 3749 7945
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 323DEG 8KT 3757 7942 

$$

JJM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
251 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drift southeast across the region this
evening before passing into the Carolinas overnight. Weak high
pressure follows the front with drier weather for much of the
remainder of the week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...

Surface front currently drifting through the extreme northern
portion of the area should finally spill south and through the
region after sunset. Ahead of the boundary still seeing the
potential for at least scattered deeper convection but so far
limited via weak northwest downslope flow, and earlier mid deck
that slowed the onset of instability over the west. Latest HRRR
continues to suggest that the current convergence area heading off
east/southeast of the Blue Ridge to push southeast in the next
few hours with only widely scattered coverage through about
midnight and mainly north-east. This looks basically on track
given overall weak instability and lack of much cloud development
across the west where drier air aloft continues to invade on
better nw flow aloft. Think mostly scattered pops for the most
part which may be too much over the northwest sections before only
having isolated coverage southeast overnight ahead of the dewpoint
boundary. Likely still moist enough in the valleys for fog late,
otherwise clearing overnight with lows low/mid 60s west to upper
60s east.

Weak high pressure builds to the north on Wednesday with good
drying seen aloft in forecast soundings across the region. Added
dry entrainment should also help dry out the low levels enough to
avoid convection except perhaps the higher ridges down in the
mountains of northwest NC. Thus left in a token shower pop there
given decent instability and weak late day convergence between
easterly flow in the lee of the ridges, and weak northwest/variable
trajectories over the west. Otherwise should be mainly sunny under
weak subsidence and slightly less humid with dewpoints falling a
bit espcly north and west. Highs still around 90 Blue Ridge east
and low/mid 80s rest of the mountains, as heating of dry air
should offset any weak/brief cooling seen aloft behind the front.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

The northern trof over the northeastern part of the country will dip a
bit further south as the broad upper ridge over the central part of the
country begins to flatten out. This will bring us seasonably warm
temperatures for Thursday as high pressure moves into the middle
Atlantic region, though there will still be a chance for some scattered
orographically forced convection mainly along the Blue Ridge. Then as
the high moves off to the east we will get back into southerly flow as
a frontal boundary approaches from the northwest. This will allow the
heat and humidity to build throughout the weekend with air temperatures
reading the middle/upper 90s and heat index values approaching 110 for
locations in the piedmont, a bit cooler in the elevations along and
west of the Blue Ridge. Also worth noting is that temperatures at night
will remain warm with lower/middle 70s east of the Ridge so there will
be little opportunity for folks to recover from the heat of the day.
Definitely important to take breaks from the heat and remain well
hydrated in the days ahead.

Our chances for thunderstorms will also be increasing in the warm and
unstable environment, but dynamic forcing is weak so any severe threat
seems limited to pulse activity and very heavy rain as precipitable
water values start creeping above 1.5 inches as we head into the first
part weekend.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

By Sunday the upper pattern will have transitioned to a quasi zonal
regime with the jet stream riding well to our north. This will keep us
in the heat and humidity through the first part of next week. The zonal
flow will result in little push to get fronts trough the region and as
a result, a washed out frontal boundary combined with a lee/thermal
trof will keep an elevated chance for thunderstorms across the region
on Sunday, followed by another weak front moving in from the northwest
and continuing our chances for thunderstorms as it washes out over the
area Tuesday. Air temperatures and heat index values will remain at
hazardous levels on Sunday especially across the piedmont, with only a
slight tempering of the heat through the first part of next week.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Weak cool front continues to sag toward the region from the north
preceded by quite a bit of mid cloudiness along/east of the Blue
Ridge in response to lift within weak difluence aloft. However
expect this canopy to push southeast shortly while giving way to
a developing scattered to broken VFR cumulus field between 4-6K
feet this afternoon.

In addition, heating combined with this low level moisture ahead
of the boundary should result in development of at least scattered
showers and storms during the afternoon. This should make for
periods of MVFR/IFR espcly across eastern/southern sections with
the KLYH-KDAN corridor, and points south/east the most likely
area to have a tsra impact an airport directly into early this
evening. Therefore inserting a tempo group for localized lower
conditions in convection with some gusty winds also possible. More
isolated nature coverage expected west of the Blue Ridge where
will just include a vicinity mention of a shra/tsra this
afternoon. Most organized convection if any should move south by
sunset with drier air aloft spilling in from the north overnight.
However moist ground conditions along with possible lingering
higher dewpoints across the south/east likely to give rise to
more fog/stratus east and patchy valley fog west late. This
supports a period of MVFR/IFR in spots late with uncertainty at
KBLF about seeing any low clouds/fog so including less there than
models suggest.

Drier air should win out on Wednesday with widespread VFR once low
clouds and fog burn off during the morning. An isolated mountain
shower or storm may still be possible with heating but not enough
to include any mention Wednesday afternoon.

Extended aviation discussion...

Strong high pressure aloft will bridge east across the region
Thursday into next weekend. Cant totally rule out an isolated
storm each afternoon/evening through the period but appears
overall VFR outside of the typical late night valley fog in spots.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
938 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ009>020-022>024-032>035-201345-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-
WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-
BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
938 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ007-WVZ042>044-507-508-201345-
TAZEWELL-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
938 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ004>006-VAZ043>047-058-059-201345-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-
BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
938 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE
HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS..

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
904 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE LEDA              36.83N 79.03W
07/18/2016                   HALIFAX            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN NEAR CHATHAM RD AT MEADVILLE RD. TIME RADAR
            ESTIMATED.

&&

JRUCKMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

VAZ024-035-191930-
ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
WEST CENTRAL AMHERST AND SOUTHWESTERN ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES...

AT 232 PM EDT...A STRONG SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR
GLASGOW...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GLASGOW.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3772 7939 3769 7937 3771 7935 3771 7930
      3757 7935 3758 7938 3759 7938 3761 7940
      3760 7943 3761 7944 3762 7944 3761 7945
      3764 7952 3769 7957 3773 7956
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 286DEG 9KT 3769 7949

JJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
237 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             NATURAL BRIDGE          37.63N 79.54W
07/19/2016  E0.50 INCH       ROCKBRIDGE         VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SOME PEA SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW PIECES TO MARBLE SIZE

&&

MBS