Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Blacksburg, VA

087 
WWUS51 KRNK 131929
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
329 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

VAC067-131938-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0179.000000T0000Z-160713T2015Z/
FRANKLIN VA-
329 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3670 7897 3682 7965 3715 7957 3745 7965
      3747 7918 3740 7912 3741 7911 3739 7907
      3742 7907 3743 7902 3738 7899 3706 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 279DEG 23KT 3740 7957 3714 7951 3692 7954 

$$

VAC019-031-083-143-680-132015-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0179.000000T0000Z-160713T2015Z/
PITTSYLVANIA VA-CAMPBELL VA-HALIFAX VA-CITY OF LYNCHBURG VA-
BEDFORD VA-
329 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR
NORTHERN PITTSYLVANIA...CAMPBELL...NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX AND CENTRAL
BEDFORD COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF LYNCHBURG...

AT 328 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR PEAKS OF OTTER SUMMIT THROUGH HUDDLESTON TO NEAR
AJAX...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LYNCHBURG...
BEDFORD...
ALTAVISTA...
HURT...
AND CHATHAM. 

THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF LEESVILLE LAKE...AND THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS LIBERTY UNIVERSITY...THE NATIONAL D DAY MEMORIAL...AND
LYNCHBURG AIRPORT.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 7897 3682 7965 3715 7957 3745 7965
      3747 7918 3740 7912 3741 7911 3739 7907
      3742 7907 3743 7902 3738 7899 3706 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 279DEG 23KT 3740 7957 3714 7951 3692 7954 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JJM

140 
WWUS51 KRNK 131942
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
342 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

VAC019-031-083-143-680-132015-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0179.000000T0000Z-160713T2015Z/
PITTSYLVANIA VA-CAMPBELL VA-HALIFAX VA-CITY OF LYNCHBURG VA-
BEDFORD VA-
342 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR
CENTRAL PITTSYLVANIA...CAMPBELL...NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX AND
SOUTHEASTERN BEDFORD COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF LYNCHBURG...

AT 342 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR GOODE TO LEESVILLE TO NEAR CLIMAX...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LYNCHBURG...
BEDFORD...
ALTAVISTA...
HURT...
AND CHATHAM. 

THIS INCLUDES LIBERTY UNIVERSITY AND LYNCHBURG AIRPORT.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 7897 3682 7965 3699 7949 3712 7946
      3746 7953 3747 7918 3740 7912 3741 7911
      3739 7907 3742 7907 3743 7902 3738 7899
      3706 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 279DEG 23KT 3739 7946 3713 7940 3691 7943 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JJM

762 
WWUS51 KRNK 131949
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
349 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

VAC019-031-083-143-680-132015-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0179.000000T0000Z-160713T2015Z/
PITTSYLVANIA VA-CAMPBELL VA-HALIFAX VA-CITY OF LYNCHBURG VA-
BEDFORD VA-
349 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR
NORTHERN PITTSYLVANIA...CAMPBELL...NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX AND
SOUTHEASTERN BEDFORD COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF LYNCHBURG...

AT 349 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR GOODE TO LEESVILLE TO NEAR GRETNA...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LYNCHBURG...
ALTAVISTA...
HURT...
CHATHAM...
AND GRETNA. 

THIS INCLUDES LIBERTY UNIVERSITY AND LYNCHBURG AIRPORT.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 7897 3682 7965 3691 7944 3711 7940
      3731 7945 3746 7947 3747 7918 3740 7912
      3741 7911 3739 7907 3742 7907 3743 7902
      3738 7899 3706 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 279DEG 23KT 3739 7942 3713 7936 3691 7939 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JJM

572 
WWUS51 KRNK 131958
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
358 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

VAC019-031-083-143-680-132015-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0179.000000T0000Z-160713T2015Z/
PITTSYLVANIA VA-CAMPBELL VA-HALIFAX VA-CITY OF LYNCHBURG VA-
BEDFORD VA-
358 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR
NORTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA...CAMPBELL...NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX AND EAST
CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF LYNCHBURG...

AT 358 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM GOODE TO ALTAVISTA TO NEAR CHALK LEVEL...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LYNCHBURG...
ALTAVISTA...
HURT...
CHATHAM...
AND GRETNA. 

THIS INCLUDES LIBERTY UNIVERSITY AND LYNCHBURG AIRPORT.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 7897 3681 7957 3685 7955 3684 7939
      3707 7932 3729 7934 3746 7936 3747 7918
      3740 7912 3741 7911 3739 7907 3742 7907
      3743 7902 3738 7899 3706 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 279DEG 23KT 3738 7936 3712 7930 3690 7933 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JJM

212 
WWUS51 KRNK 132004
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
404 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

VAC019-132014-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0179.000000T0000Z-160713T2015Z/
BEDFORD VA-
404 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
EAST CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3670 7897 3681 7957 3685 7955 3684 7934
      3706 7925 3734 7927 3739 7923 3741 7926
      3744 7927 3747 7921 3747 7919 3740 7912
      3741 7911 3739 7907 3739 7906 3742 7907
      3742 7904 3743 7902 3738 7899 3706 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 279DEG 23KT 3738 7933 3712 7927 3690 7930 

$$

VAC031-083-143-680-132015-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0179.000000T0000Z-160713T2015Z/
PITTSYLVANIA VA-CAMPBELL VA-HALIFAX VA-CITY OF LYNCHBURG VA-
404 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR
NORTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA...CAMPBELL...NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX COUNTIES
AND THE CITY OF LYNCHBURG...

AT 404 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR GOODE THROUGH ALTAVISTA TO CHALK LEVEL...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LYNCHBURG...
CHATHAM...
BROOKNEAL...
MT AIRY...
AND RUSTBURG. 

THIS INCLUDES LIBERTY UNIVERSITY AND LYNCHBURG AIRPORT.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 7897 3681 7957 3685 7955 3684 7934
      3706 7925 3734 7927 3739 7923 3741 7926
      3744 7927 3747 7921 3747 7919 3740 7912
      3741 7911 3739 7907 3739 7906 3742 7907
      3742 7904 3743 7902 3738 7899 3706 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 279DEG 23KT 3738 7933 3712 7927 3690 7930 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JJM

466 
WWUS51 KRNK 132008
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
408 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

VAC031-083-143-680-132017-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0179.000000T0000Z-160713T2015Z/
PITTSYLVANIA VA-CAMPBELL VA-HALIFAX VA-CITY OF LYNCHBURG VA-
408 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
NORTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA...CAMPBELL...NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX COUNTIES
AND THE CITY OF LYNCHBURG WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM EDT...
    
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND HAVE EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

BE ADVISED THAT...WHILE THIS WARNING HAS ENDED...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
PITTSYLVANIA AND HALIFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 5PM EDT.

LAT...LON 3670 7897 3681 7957 3685 7955 3684 7934
      3706 7925 3734 7927 3739 7923 3741 7926
      3744 7927 3747 7921 3747 7919 3740 7912
      3741 7911 3739 7907 3739 7906 3742 7907
      3742 7904 3743 7902 3738 7899 3706 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 279DEG 23KT 3738 7933 3712 7927 3690 7930 

$$

JJM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
249 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm and humid airmass will be over the region through
Thursday with the potential for showers and thunderstorms. A cold
front will try to pass through the Mid Atlantic Region from the
northwest late Thursday into Friday, then this front is forecast
to stall over the Carolinas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM EDT Wednesday...

1022 MB surface high is centered over Georgia with plume of
tropical moisture, dewpoints in the 70s, bathing much of the
eastern CONUS. A surface cold front extends from the western Great
Lakes into the Central Plains, along the leading edge of an
east bound upper level trough moving across the US Northern
Plains and Canadian Prairie. Thunderstorms were ongoing along the
leading edge of this airmass change, but well upstream of our
forecast area, posing little threat to our sensible weather attm.

For the Mid Atlantic, synoptic features are lacking. However,
moist airmass and subtle meso features are still contributing to
widely scattered deep convection. Still watching remnant mid/upper
level short wave, a feature that was over KY yesterday. This
atmospheric wiggle is currently moving across WV associated with
small clustering of showers from CRW-BLF. The NAM does the better
job at following it as it moves east into VA by 00z/8PM this
evening, and would think this feature alone would be enough to
provide enough forcing for scattered to potentially numerous
showers and thunderstorms north of the highway 460 corridor this
afternoon. Farther south, the influence will be the least, so
probability for storms goes down as you cross into NC.

The morning RNK sounding indicated a PW of 1.60 inches, so the
rain efficiency for showers will be high. However, unlike
yesterday, the mean wind is a little faster, out of the west at
about 15 kts, so activity should be moving along at closer to 20
mph as opposed to yesterdays 10 to 15 mph. That being said still
can't rule out a pulse severe, mainly from waterloading which
could result in an isolated wet microburst.

Tonight, the models show local storms to end by midnight. However,
upstream activity over the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio
Valley will remain active per clash between the tropical airmass
over the Eastern Conus with the advancing upper level trough and
surface cold front. Debris cloudiness and potential for
showers/storms could threaten our northwestern CWA (southeast WV) by
daybreak Thursday.

Highs this afternoon will climb into the lower to mid 80s in the
west today to lower 90s southeast.

Tonight the temperatures stay muggy with mid to upper 60s west to
lower 70s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday...

Similar scenario seen in the past few weeks to repeat itself with a
weak upper trough across the Mid Atlantic helping push a weak cold
front into the region by the weekend before stalling. Weak impulses
sliding around the center of the troffiness in the Ohio Valley to help
spark added rounds of showers and storms pending how far south the
boundary gets. Latest models continue to differ on the eventual
evolution of the front with the Nam jumping the boundary into the
eastern lee trough Friday, while the GFS/CMC hang it up over the west
and ripple weak low pressure up from the southwest Friday night. Latest
ECMWF closer to the Nam, but with more digging aloft which allows the
boundary to spill farther south by Friday night.

For now based on past trends and the degree of heating south/east of
the front, will go a bit slower and keep some pops in espcly
afternoon/evening hours through the period. Think the best chances will
be over the far west later Thursday per westerly convergence ahead of
the boundary, and least out east where will see downsloping until late.
Higher pops then across the southwest later Friday where should see the
front or residual outflow stall perhaps allowing a ribbon of deeper
moisture to slide up into the region but iffy.

Influx of warmer air aloft ahead of the front combined with westerly
flow under more early insolation should make Thursday afternoon the
hottest with highs low/mid 90s along/east of the Blue Ridge, and
mid/upper 80s west. Appears a little cooler Friday espcly mountains
with the front/clouds around where should stay in the low/mid 80s,
while the east punches back into the 90-95 range after a very muggy
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 430 PM EDT Tuesday...

The frontal boundary will make slow progress south of the area while
high pressure builds into the mid-Atlantic region. Disturbances will
track along the stalled front and bring showers and storms into our
region through the weekend. As the the ridge axis shifts east,
expect a buckle north in the position of the stalled front Monday
into Tuesday. This will only add to the shower and thunderstorm
chances for the area.

Temperatures will start this portion of the forecast around
normal, or slightly below normal, and trend to slightly above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Blacksburg AWOS is not transmitting observations, so amend not
sked added to the the BCB TAF. AMD NOT SKED may have been added to
additional TAF sites due to inability of NWS forecasters to
actively monitor Metars due to a WAN outage.

Moist airmass and subtle meso features are contributing to
scattered deep convection across the forecast area. Remnant
mid/upper level short wave, a feature that was over KY yesterday
is moving across WV into VA. This atmospheric wiggle will provide
enough lift for clustering of showers/storms to pass across all
RNK terminals during the afternoon and evening... with greatest
coverage over WV/VA and only ISOLD coverage over NC.
Showers/storms will persist through sunset, weakening after loss
of daytime heating.

As convection weakens overnight moisture remains elevated.
Question is how much clearing we get before next upstream system
moves in with more clouds and fog formation. At the very least
should have local ifr due to valley fog and potential for ground
fog where heaviest showers occured during the day.

Extended aviation discussion...

Summertime shower/thundershower weather pattern will continue
Thursday. On Thursday, an upper trough will sweep through the
Great Lakes region, dragging a weak cold front toward the
Appalachians. Expect organized MVFR/IFR thunderstorms upstream to
make inroads toward the mountains. The front will cross the area
Thursday night or Friday with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms into Saturday.

The front hangs up in the Carolinas over the weekend and should
keep the threat of showers and storms into Sunday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
There was a WAN outage that affected multiple NWS offices
including our own from 1030 AM until 230 PM. This resulted in a
loss/delay of some of our services. It appears the problem has
been fixed and data is flowing again. We apologize for any
inconvenience.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
424 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>018-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
140830-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
424 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A FEW OF THE
STORMS LATER FRIDAY COULD ALSO CONTAIN LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ019-020-WVZ042>044-507-508-140830-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
WESTERN GREENBRIER-
424 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR
WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
152 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

VAZ007-131815-
TAZEWELL-
152 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN TAZEWELL COUNTY...

AT 151 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR JEWELL RIDGE...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RICHLANDS...
TAZEWELL...
CEDAR BLUFF...
CLIFFIELD...
AND JEWELL RIDGE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3716 8187 3717 8187 3720 8176 3724 8174
      3724 8172 3720 8168 3720 8159 3721 8156
      3722 8154 3723 8151 3726 8150 3725 8148
      3724 8148 3705 8150 3711 8189 3715 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 276DEG 24KT 3723 8177

JJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
204 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

VAZ018-019-WVZ044-507-131830-
CRAIG-ALLEGHANY-EASTERN GREENBRIER-MONROE-
204 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
CRAIG...SOUTHERN CITY OF COVINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN ALLEGHANY...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENBRIER AND NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 204 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR ROARING MOUNTAIN SUMMIT THROUGH PAINT BANK TO
CRAIG SPRINGS...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALLEGHANY...
COVINGTON...
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...
NEW CASTLE...
AND JORDAN MINES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3778 7995 3768 7996 3764 8003 3763 8003
      3755 7997 3751 8001 3743 8006 3742 8008
      3740 8024 3746 8033 3759 8036 3780 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 279DEG 23KT 3774 8029 3760 8029 3747 8031

JJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
229 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

VAZ022-023-033-034-043-131900-
HENRY-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-BEDFORD-FRANKLIN-
229 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN ROANOKE...FRANKLIN...NORTHEASTERN HENRY...EASTERN CITY
OF ROANOKE...SOUTHEASTERN BOTETOURT AND SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD
COUNTIES...

AT 228 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR VINTON THROUGH BURNT CHIMNEY TO NEAR SONTAG TO
NEAR FERRUM...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROANOKE...
VINTON...
ROCKY MOUNT...
BOONES MILL...
AND STEWARTSVILLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND
MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE
OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO
SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3748 7962 3704 7959 3703 7959 3680 7965
      3679 7984 3684 8007 3685 8008 3705 7995
      3731 7994 3746 7975
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 288DEG 24KT 3731 7985 3714 7987 3693 7989 3686
8002

JJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
231 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

NCZ004-005-131915-
ROCKINGHAM-STOKES-
231 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN STOKES AND SOUTHWESTERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES...

AT 230 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER HANGING ROCK STATE
PARK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH...AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MADISON...
WALNUT COVE...
DANBURY...
DILLARD...
AND MEADOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR BELEWS LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...
YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER
NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3626 8015 3636 8033 3643 8027 3638 7992
      3626 8001
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 287DEG 18KT 3638 8027

JJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
233 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

VAZ018-023-131900-
CRAIG-BOTETOURT-
233 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN CRAIG AND CENTRAL BOTETOURT COUNTIES...

AT 233 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS NEAR NEW
CASTLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUCHANAN...
TROUTVILLE...
ORISKANY...
FINCASTLE...
AND LITHIA.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3758 7962 3740 7982 3754 8014 3762 8010
      3763 8008 3765 8006
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 287DEG 18KT 3756 8009

JJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
255 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

VAZ033-034-044-131945-
BEDFORD-PITTSYLVANIA-FRANKLIN-
255 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN PITTSYLVANIA...EASTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD
COUNTIES...

AT 254 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED NEAR
MONTVALE THROUGH WESTLAKE CORNER TO NEAR SONTAG...AND MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEDFORD...
PENHOOK...
HUDDLESTON...
MONETA...
AND NORTH SHORE.

THIS INCLUDES THE NATIONAL D DAY MEMORIAL.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR BOTH SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE AND LEESVILLE
LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE.
REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT
THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON
THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3685 7962 3685 7964 3687 7974 3706 7970
      3735 7972 3741 7937 3716 7938 3713 7940
      3712 7938 3712 7940 3706 7944 3706 7941
      3709 7940 3710 7938 3704 7938 3680 7946
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 282DEG 16KT 3733 7974 3711 7976 3689 7975

JJM