Alert archive / Virginia / River Flood Warnings in 2016
River Flood Warning 1, NWS Blacksburg, VA
NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this river flood warning at Feb 3, 2016, 2:34 PM EST for Charlotte County, Halifax County, Virginia. It took effect at Feb 4, 2016, 9:20 AM EST. It was in force for 71 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 3, 2016, 2:34 PM EST (19:34 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 4, 2016, 9:20 AM EST
- Expired
- Feb 7, 2016, 7:54 AM EST
- In force
- 71 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Blacksburg, VA
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
Counties Charlotte County, VA, Halifax County, VA
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 136 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Roanoke River at Randolph (RNDV2).
- Action stage
- 21 ft
- Minor stage
- 24 ft
- Moderate stage
- 30 ft
- Major stage
- 34 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02066000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
504
WGUS41 KRNK 031934
FLWRNK
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
234 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
...The National Weather Service Blacksburg Va has issued
a Flood Warning for the following rivers in Virginia...
Roanoke River At Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties
Dan River At South Boston affecting Halifax County
Minor flooding is forecast along the lower Dan and Roanoke rivers due to
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the basin over the past 18 hours. Additional
rainfall up to 0.50 inches in the next few hours is also likely.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper
than you think.
Listen to noaa weather radio or your favorite media outlet for later
statements or warnings.
&&
VAC037-083-040734-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FL.W.0001.160205T0936Z-160207T1254Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160205T0936Z.160206T0600Z.160207T0054Z.NO/
234 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
The National Weather Service in Blacksburg Va has issued a
* Flood Warning for
the Roanoke River At Randolph.
* from late Thursday night until Sunday morning.
* at 01PM Wednesday the stage was...12.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood Stage is 21.0 feet.
* The river will rise above flood stage early Friday.
* At 24.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding in fields on left bank
and woods on right bank.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Nov 11 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
3680 7863 3680 7870
$$
VAC083-040734-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FL.W.0002.160204T2100Z-160207T0900Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160204T2100Z.160205T1800Z.160206T2100Z.NO/
234 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
The National Weather Service in Blacksburg Va has issued a
* Flood Warning for
the Dan River At South Boston.
* from Thursday afternoon until late Saturday night.
* at 02PM Wednesday the stage was...11.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will rise above flood stage Thursday afternoon.
* Flood Stage is 19.0 feet.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Oct 2 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
$$
pc9 follow-up statements
290
WGUS81 KRNK 040313
FLSRNK
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1013 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Virginia and North Carolina...
Roanoke River At Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties
Dan River At South Boston affecting Halifax County
Dan River Near Danville affecting Caswell...City of Danville and
Pittsylvania Counties
Dan River Near Paces affecting Halifax County
Heavy rainfall on top of saturated ground from recent snow melt has resulted
in minor flooding along several points of the river system. Minor flooding
is expected along the lower end of the Dan and Roanoke River basins through
Thursday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper
than you think.
Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes
ahps'.
The next scheduled statement will be issued around 5 am EST Thursday.
&&
VAC037-083-041113-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0001.160204T1651Z-160207T0138Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160204T1651Z.160205T1200Z.160206T1338Z.NO/
1013 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
The Flood Warning continues for
the Roanoke River At Randolph.
* from late Thursday morning until Saturday evening.
* at 9 PM EST Wednesday the stage was 15.8 feet...and rising slowly.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage late Thursday morning and
continue to rise to near 23.4 feet by Friday morning. The river
is forecast to fall below flood stage Saturday morning.
* At 24.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding in fields on left bank
and woods on right bank.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Nov 11 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
3680 7863 3680 7870
$$
NCC033-VAC143-590-041113-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0003.160204T0936Z-160205T1225Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.160204T0936Z.160204T1800Z.160205T0025Z.NO/
1013 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
the Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River Near Danville.
* from early Thursday morning until Friday morning.
* at 9 PM EST Wednesday the stage was 14.6 feet...and rising slowly.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage early Thursday and continue
to rise to near 18.4 feet early Thursday afternoon. The river
is forecast to fall below flood stage late Thursday evening.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 17.5 feet on Nov 11 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3649 7966 3660 7963 3664 7941 3663 7920
3648 7923 3650 7949
$$
VAC083-041113-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0004.160204T2024Z-160206T1030Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.160204T2024Z.160205T1200Z.160205T2230Z.NO/
1013 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
the Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River Near Paces.
* from Thursday afternoon until late Friday night.
* at 9 PM EST Wednesday the stage was 15.4 feet...and rising.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage Thursday afternoon and
continue to rise to near 21.0 feet by Friday morning. The river
is forecast to fall below flood stage by Friday afternoon.
* At 20.0 feet...Low-lying pasture/agricultural lands are flooded.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.6 feet on Oct 1 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
3656 7911
$$
VAC083-041113-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0002.160204T0640Z-160207T1057Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160204T0640Z.160205T1800Z.160206T2257Z.NO/
1013 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
The Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River At South Boston.
* from early Thursday morning until late Saturday night.
* at 9 PM EST Wednesday the stage was 17.2 feet...and rising.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage around 12 am EST Thursday then
continue to rise to near 24.1 feet by early Friday afternoon. The
river is forecast to fall below flood stage by Saturday afternoon.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Oct 2 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
$$
RAB144
WGUS81 KRNK 040950
FLSRNK
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
450 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Virginia...
Roanoke River At Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in North
Carolina...Virginia..
Dan River Near Danville affecting Caswell...City of Danville and
Pittsylvania Counties
Dan River Near Paces affecting Halifax County
Dan River At South Boston affecting Halifax County
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED WEDNESDAY...BRINGING 1 TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES
TO THE HEADWATERS OF THE ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. SATURATED GROUND
FROM RECENT SNOWMELT LED TO RAPID RUNOFF. THIS IN TURN HAS LED TO RISING
RIVER LEVELS DOWNSTREAM OF WENTWORTH ON THE DAN RIVER AND BROOKNEAL ON
THE ROANOKE RIVER. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper
than you think.
Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes
ahps'.
The next scheduled statement will be issued BY NOON TODAY.
&&
VAC037-083-041750-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0001.160204T1420Z-160207T0200Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160204T1420Z.160205T1200Z.160206T1400Z.NO/
450 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016
The Flood Warning continues for
the Roanoke River At Randolph.
* from late this morning until Saturday evening
* at 03AM Thursday the stage was 19.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage late this morning and
continue to rise to near 23.8 feet by FRIDAY morning. The river
will fall below flood stage by late Saturday morning.
* At 24.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding in fields on left bank
and woods on right bank.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Nov 11 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
3680 7863 3680 7870
$$
NCC033-VAC143-590-041750-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160205T1225Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.160204T1018Z.160204T1800Z.160205T0025Z.NO/
450 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016
the Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River Near Danville.
* from early this morning until Friday morning
* at 04AM Thursday the stage was 16.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage early this morning and
continue to rise to near 18.4 feet by this afternoon. The river
will fall below flood stage by this evening.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 17.5 feet on Nov 11 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3649 7966 3660 7963 3664 7941 3663 7920
3648 7923 3650 7949
$$
VAC083-041750-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0004.160204T2024Z-160206T1030Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.160204T2024Z.160205T1200Z.160205T2230Z.NO/
450 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016
the Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River Near Paces.
* from late this afternoon until late Friday night
* at 03AM Thursday the stage was 17.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and
continue to rise to near 21.0 feet by FRIDAY morning. The river
will fall below flood stage by FRIDAY afternoon.
* At 20.0 feet...Low-lying pasture/agricultural lands are flooded.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.6 feet on Oct 1 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
3656 7911
$$
VAC083-041750-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160207T1057Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160204T0412Z.160205T1800Z.160206T2257Z.NO/
450 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016
the Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River At South Boston.
* until late Saturday night.
* at 04AM Thursday the stage was 20.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.1 feet by FRIDAY
afternoon. the river will fall below flood stage Saturday
afternoon.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Oct 2 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
$$739
WGUS81 KRNK 041513
FLSRNK
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1013 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Virginia...North Carolina...
Roanoke River At Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties
Dan River Near Danville affecting Caswell...City of Danville and
Pittsylvania Counties
Dan River Near Paces affecting Halifax County
Dan River At South Boston affecting Halifax County
Heavy rain occurred Wednesday...bringing one to two inches of rainfall to the headwaters of the Roanoke and Dan River basins. Saturated ground from recent snow melt...along with this rainfall led to rapid runoff. This resulted in rising river levels downstream of Wentworth of the Dan River and downstream of Brookneal on the Roanoke River.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper
than you think.
Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes
ahps'.
The next scheduled statement will be issued before 10PM.
&&
VAC037-083-042313-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160206T1800Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160204T1306Z.160205T0600Z.160206T0600Z.NO/
1013 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016
The Flood Warning continues for
the Roanoke River at Randolph.
* until Saturday afternoon.
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 21.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.9 feet just after midnight
tonight. The river will fall below flood stage early Saturday
morning.
* At 24.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding occurs in fields on the
left bank and in the woods on right bank.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Nov 11 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
3680 7863 3680 7870
$$
NCC033-VAC143-590-042313-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160205T1100Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.160204T1115Z.160204T1800Z.160204T2300Z.NO/
1013 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016
The Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River near Danville.
* until Friday morning.
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 17.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 18.0 feet by this afternoon.
The river will fall below flood stage this evening.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 17.5 feet on Nov 11 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3649 7966 3660 7963 3664 7941 3663 7920
3648 7923 3650 7949
$$
VAC083-042313-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0004.160205T0224Z-160206T0618Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.160205T0224Z.160205T1200Z.160205T1818Z.NO/
1013 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016
The Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River near Paces.
* from tonight until late Friday night
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 18.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise
to near 20.6 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will fall below
flood stage by early tomorrow afternoon.
* At 20.0 feet...Low-lying pasture and agricultural lands are flooded.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.6 feet on Oct 1 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
3656 7911
$$
VAC083-042313-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160207T0900Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160204T0412Z.160206T0000Z.160206T2100Z.NO/
1013 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016
The Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River at South Boston.
* until late Saturday night.
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 21.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.0 feet by tomorrow
evening. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday afternoon.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Oct 2 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
$$659
WGUS81 KRNK 042306
FLSRNK
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
606 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North
Carolina and Virginia...
Dan River Near Danville affecting Caswell...City of Danville...and
Pittsylvania Counties
Dan River Near Paces affecting Halifax County
Dan River At South Boston affecting Halifax County
Roanoke River At Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties
...Heavy rainfall Wednesday combined with saturated ground from recent
snow melt produced excessive runoff into area creeks...streams...and rivers.
Some points along the lower portion of the Dan and Roanoke river basin
will remain in minor flood for the next few days...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper
than you think.
Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes
ahps'.
The next scheduled statement will be issued around 10 pm EST.
&&
VAC037-083-050706-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160206T1800Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160204T1306Z.160205T0600Z.160206T0600Z.NO/
606 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
the Flood Warning continues for
the Roanoke River At Randolph.
* until Saturday afternoon.
* at 5 PM THursday the stage was 22.8 feet...and rising.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.9 feet by midnight...
then fall below flood stage early Saturday morning.
* At 24.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding in fields on left bank
and woods on right bank.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Nov 11 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
3680 7863 3680 7870
$$
NCC033-VAC143-590-050706-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160205T1142Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.160204T1115Z.160204T2031Z.160204T2342Z.NO/
606 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
The Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River Near Danville.
* until Friday morning.
* at 5 PM EST Thursday the stage was 17.7 feet...and falling.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river is expected to continue to fall to below flood stage by
midnight tonight.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 17.5 feet on Nov 11 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3649 7966 3660 7963 3664 7941 3663 7920
3648 7923 3650 7949
$$
VAC083-050706-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0004.160205T0224Z-160206T0618Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.160205T0224Z.160205T1200Z.160205T1818Z.NO/
606 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
the Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River Near Paces.
* from tonight until late Friday night
* at 5 PM EST Thursday the stage was 19.7 feet...and rising.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage this evening and continue to rise
to near 20.6 feet by tomorrow morning. The river is expected tofall
below flood stage early Thursday afternoon.
* At 20.0 feet...Low-lying pasture/agricultural lands are flooded.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.6 feet on Oct 1 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
3656 7911
$$
VAC083-050706-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160207T0900Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160204T0412Z.160206T0000Z.160206T2100Z.NO/
606 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
the Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River At South Boston.
* until late Saturday night.
* at 5 PM EST Thursday the stage was 22.3 feet...and rising.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.0 feet by Friday
evening...then is forecast to fall below flood stage Saturday afternoon.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Oct 2 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
$$
RAB812
WGUS81 KRNK 050335
FLSRNK
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1035 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Virginia...
Roanoke River At Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties
Dan River Near Paces affecting Halifax County
Dan River At South Boston affecting Halifax County
...Heavy rainfall Wednesday on top of recent runoff from snow
melt has resulted in minor flooding along the lower portion of
the Dan and Roanoke River basins. Minor flooding will continue
in these areas through Friday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper
than you think.
Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes
ahps'.
The next scheduled statement will be issued by 8 am EST Friday morning.
&&
VAC037-083-051135-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160206T2308Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160204T1306Z.160205T0600Z.160206T1108Z.NO/
1035 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
The Flood Warning continues for
the Roanoke River At Randolph.
* until Saturday evening.
* at 10 PM EST Thursday the stage was 23.2 feet...and rising slowly.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.8 feet early Friday
morning...then is expected to fall below flood stage Saturday morning.
* At 24.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding in fields on left bank
and woods on right bank.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Nov 11 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
3680 7863 3680 7870
$$
VAC083-051135-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160206T0400Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.160205T0245Z.160205T1200Z.160205T1600Z.NO/
1035 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
The Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River Near Paces.
* until Friday evening.
* at 10 PM EST Thursday the stage was 20.0 feet...and rising slowly.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 20.8 feet Friday
morning. The river is then expected to fall below flood stage
late Friday morning.
* At 20.0 feet...Low-lying pasture/agricultural lands are flooded.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.6 feet on Oct 1 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
3656 7911
$$
VAC083-051135-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160207T0451Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160204T0412Z.160206T0000Z.160206T1651Z.NO/
1035 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
The Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River At South Boston.
* until Saturday evening.
* at 10 PM EST Thursday the stage was 22.5 feet...and rising slowly.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.0 feet by Friday
evening. The river is then expected to fall below flood stage late
Saturday morning.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Oct 2 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
$$
RAB239
WGUS81 KRNK 051226
FLSRNK
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
726 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Virginia...
Roanoke River At Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties
Dan River Near Paces affecting Halifax County
Dan River At South Boston affecting Halifax County
THE ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH HAS CRESTED AND IS NOW FALLING BUT
REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE DAN RIVER AT PACES HAS ALSO CRESTED
AND IS BEGINNING TO FALL BUT REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE DAN
RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON IS CLOSE TO CREST.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper
than you think.
Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes
ahps'.
The next scheduled statement will be issued BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
VAC037-083-052026-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160206T1232Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160204T1306Z.160205T0615Z.160206T0032Z.NO/
726 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
The Flood Warning continues for
the Roanoke River At Randolph.
* until Saturday morning.
* at 06AM Friday the stage was 23.0 feet AND FALLING.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this
evening.
* At 22.0 feet...River Road (Route 607) in Charlotte County and
Black Walnut Road in Halifax County are closed by flooding.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Nov 11 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
3680 7863 3680 7870
$$
VAC083-052026-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160206T0111Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.160205T0245Z.160205T0900Z.160205T1311Z.NO/
726 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
The Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River Near Paces.
* until this evening.
* at 06AM Friday the stage was 20.3 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by late this
morning.
* At 20.0 feet...Low-lying pasture/agricultural lands are flooded.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 20.6 feet on Jan 13 2014.
&&
LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
3656 7911
$$
VAC083-052026-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160206T1952Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160204T0412Z.160206T0000Z.160206T0752Z.NO/
726 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
The Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River At South Boston.
* until Saturday afternoon.
* at 07AM Friday the stage was 23.0 feet and slowly rising
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.5 feet by this evening.
the river will fall below flood stage after midnight tonight.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 22.5 feet on Nov 11 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
$$070
WGUS81 KRNK 051537
FLSRNK
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1037 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in Virginia...
Dan River Near Paces affecting Halifax County
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Virginia...
Roanoke River At Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties
Dan River At South Boston affecting Halifax County
The Dan River at Paces has dropped below flood stage. The Dan River at South Boston is close to cresting. The Roanoke River at Randolph has crested and was falling.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper
than you think.
Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes
ahps'.
The next scheduled statement will be issued by 10pm.
&&
VAC037-083-052337-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160206T1227Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160204T1306Z.160205T0615Z.160206T0027Z.NO/
1037 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
The Flood Warning continues for
the Roanoke River At Randolph.
* until Saturday morning.
* at 09AM Friday the stage was 22.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall below flood stage by this
evening.
* At 22.0 feet...River Road (Route 607) in Charlotte County and
Black Walnut Road in Halifax County are closed by flooding.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Nov 11 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
3680 7863 3680 7870
$$
VAC083-051607-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160206T0111Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.160205T0245Z.160205T0900Z.160205T1357Z.NO/
1037 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
the Flood Warning is cancelled for
the Dan River Near Paces.
* until this evening.
* at 09AM Friday the stage was 19.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* At 20.0 feet...Low-lying pasture/agricultural lands are flooded.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 20.6 feet on Jan 13 2014.
&&
LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
3656 7911
$$
VAC083-052337-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160206T2024Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160204T0412Z.160206T0000Z.160206T0824Z.NO/
1037 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
The Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River At South Boston.
* until Saturday afternoon.
* at 10AM Friday the stage was 23.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.4 feet by this evening.
The river will fall below flood stage early tomorrow.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Oct 2 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
$$357
WGUS81 KRNK 052244
FLSRNK
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
544 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Virginia..
Roanoke River At Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties
Dan River At South Boston affecting Halifax County
The rivers have crested and will continue falling tonight.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper
than you think.
Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes
ahps'.
The next scheduled statement will be issued by 5AM Saturday.
&&
VAC037-083-060644-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160206T1227Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160204T1306Z.160205T0615Z.160206T0027Z.NO/
544 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
the Flood Warning continues for
the Roanoke River At Randolph.
* until Saturday morning.
* at 04PM Friday the stage was 21.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this
evening.
* At 21.0 feet...Water approaches River Road (Route 607) south of
Randolph.
&&
LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
3680 7863 3680 7870
$$
VAC083-060644-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160206T2024Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160204T0412Z.160206T0000Z.160206T0824Z.NO/
544 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
the Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River At South Boston.
* until Saturday afternoon.
* at 05PM Friday the stage was 23.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river has crested and will fall below flood stage early tomorrow.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 22.5 feet on Nov 11 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
$$749
WGUS81 KRNK 060121
FLSRNK
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
821 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in Virginia...
Roanoke River At Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties
Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes
ahps'.
&&
VAC037-083-060151-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160206T1227Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160204T1306Z.160205T0615Z.160206T0018Z.NO/
821 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
the Flood Warning is cancelled for
the Roanoke River At Randolph.
* until further notice.
* at 7 PM EST Friday the stage was 20.9 feet...and falling.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* The river has dropped flood stage and is expected to remain below
flood stage until further notice.
* At 21.0 feet...Water approaches River Road (Route 607) south of
Randolph.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.7 feet on Oct 4 2015.
&&
LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
3680 7863 3680 7870
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Feb 3, 1:37 PM EST, 57 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 3, 1:37 PM EST, 57 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
137 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE PIEDMONT
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
WIND ADVISORY IN THE WEST HAS BEEN CANCELLED. MAIN CONCERN NOW IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. MORNING RNK SOUNDING WAS SATURATED AND
VERY TROPICAL LOOKING. OBSERVED PWAT WAS 1.24. FOR FEBRUARY 3RD
THIS IS OFF THE CHART. PREVIOUS PWAT RECORD (1995 TO PRESENT) FOR
THE DATE WAS 0.80 WHICH PLACES THIS AT THE 100 PERCENTILE AS FAR
AS EXTREME MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PER THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DISCUSSION FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...THE PLUME
OF MOISTURE THAT IS FLOWING NORTH INTO OUR AREAS IS 4 TO 5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 850/700 MB LAYER. IF YOU
LOOK AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THIS MOISTURE PLUME TRAILS ALL THE
WAY DOWN INTO THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC...PRETTY IMPRESSIVE.
THAT BEING SAID...RAIN RATES TODAY WILL BE TROPICAL. RADAR IS
GROSSLY UNDERESTIMATING RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC BLUE
RIDGE WHERE RAIN EFFICIENCY HAS BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH AND RADAR
IS OVERSHOOTING THE SHALLOW CLOUD TOPS. RAIN RATES IN THAT AREA
ARE ABOUT AN INCH AN HOUR. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INCREDIBLE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THAT AREA.
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NC INDICATED DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S (STATESVILLE IS 63 AND HICKORY IS OBSERVING 61)...ALL OF WHICH
IS ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE RAIN TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT FROM BLOWING ROCK NC TO FANCY GAP VA. THIS IS QUITE
SERIOUS...SINCE MOST OF THIS WATER IS GOING TO RUN-OFF DUE TO
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT SNOWFALL AND LACK OF
VEGETATION TO INTERCEPT. OUR ADVICE TO SCHOOLS IN THAT AREA IS TO
SHELTER IN PLACE AND REEVALUATE ROAD CONDITIONS ONCE THE RAIN
TAPERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHLY RECOMMEND FOLKS TAKE HEAD OF
THIS SORT OF SITUATION AS STREAMS WILL COME UP QUICKLY AND
COMPROMISE ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE.
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST...BUT NOT VERY FAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WHICH
SUGGESTS HIGHER QPF. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND MAY EXPAND
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FARTHER EAST IF NEEDED.
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...A 995 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED
OVER NORTHEASTERN MICHIGAN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO. A STRONG
COLD FRONT TRAILED SOUTH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE EASTERN OH
VALLEY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A VERY STRONG 8H LOW
LVL JET....60KTS+...WAS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTH. A SHALLOW
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR PERSISTED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...REMNANTS FROM
YESTERDAYS HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SMALL DOME OF COOL AIR HAS BEEN
BLOCKING THE STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE...BUT AS
THIS FEATURE ERODES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT WHERE DEEPER MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR.
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE PIEDMONT MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE RUNNING 3-4
SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NEAR TERM MODELS TAKE THE
LINE OF DEEPER CONVECTION WHICH IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND MOVE IT EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE 2 TO
5PM TIME FRAME. TENDENCY OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW THE
FORWARD PROGRESS...SUGGESTING IT MAY TAKE AS LONG AS 8PM BEFORE
THE RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA...I.E.
CLARKSVILLE/FARMVILLE VA. WITH THE GROUND REMAINING SATURATED FROM
SNOWMELT AND 6 HR FFG RUNNING UNDER 1.5 INCHES IN SOME
LOCATIONS...WE WILL SEE SOME FLOODING. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE SOUTH WINDS GET LIFTED UPSLOPE
PROMOTING LOCALIZED STRONGER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WHICH WILL
YIELD HIGHER RAIN RATES/EFFICIENCY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT RAINFALL
OF 2+ INCHES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...ESP SW OF ROANOKE
INTO NC.
ADDITIONAL CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT CONFINED TO JUST A SMALL PART OF OUR CWA.
SHEAR IS HIGH...RAIN EFFICIENCY IS HIGH...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK
DUE TO THE LINGERING STABLE WEDGE. THAT STABLE WEDGE IS ERODING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...VCNTY OF
DANVILLE AND SOUTH BOSTON. THIS WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH TO SEE
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. IF THEY
DEVELOP...MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...COOLER
WHERE THE WEDGE LINGERS AND MUCH WARMER...CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S...WHERE THE WEDGE COMPLETELY ERODES.
TONIGHT...THE FRONT SLOWS UP AS IT ELONGATED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER
FLOW...BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF US BY MIDNIGHT. HUNG ONTO HIGHER POPS
THIS EVENING FROM LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE EAST WHILE DRYING THINGS
OUT WEST. SHOULD SEE DRIER PUNCHING INTO THE PIEDMONT BEFORE DAWN
WHILE UPSLOPE STARTS TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WEST.
COLD AIR MAY LAG GIVEN SLOWNESS OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S EAST TO LOWER 30S WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL STALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
THE OHIO-TENN VALLEYS BY THURSDAY EVENING...GENERATING A SURFACE
REFLECTION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS REFLECTION MAY BUCKLE
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE COASTAL PIEDMONT THURSDAY EVENING. THE 00Z
NAM MOVES AN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE VA/NC PIEDMONT WHILE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN DRY. WE WILL RUN WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION AS WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW PROMOTES DRYING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE SURFACE
REFLECTION AND MOISTURE OUT TO SEA. A CHILLY SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. THE 00Z GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL DISPLAYING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A MAINLY WEST WIND AND
MOISTURE BECOMING VERY SHALLOW THROUGH THE DAY...WILL ONLY CARRY
CHANCE POPS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW UP TO AN INCH IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY WHILE TEMPERATURES RUN
NEAR NORMAL. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL START A
PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS THAT WILL WEAKEN THE WARMING TREND. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE NORTHERN ONE WILL CROSS OVER QUEBEC AND THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP THIS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
IN PLACE. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL GENERATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND TRACK IT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY JUST OFFSHORE
AND NOT IMPACT THE CWA.
BY SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EMERGE WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THAT WILL SPARK AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ON
MONDAY...TO KEEP THE APPROACHING MOISTURE FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AS
RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE COLDER WESTERN SLOPES WHERE IT MAY START AS
SNOW. ONCE A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION WOULD TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SINCE THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO THE MODELS DIVERGING ON THE TRACK OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...JUST
CHANCE POPS WERE UTILIZED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH TIME.
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST IS CURRENTLY BRINGING PERIODS OF MDT/HVY RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION...BEFORE THE SHOWERS TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING.
CIG/VIS CONDITIONS WERE INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AHEAD OF THE
PRECIPITATION...THEN TRENDED UPWARD AS PRECIPITATION HELPED MIX
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE NOW RAPIDLY VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND IFR AS THE LINGERING WEDGE AND COLD GROUND WITH
POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SNOW COVER IS COOLING THE AIRMASS FROM
BELOW. EXPECT A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CAN MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION
AND WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
ESTABLISH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. IT IS NOT CERTAIN
WHETHER KLYH AND KDAN IN THE PIEDMONT WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT THE
LINGERING WEDGE OVERNIGHT AND THEY MAY STAY LOCKED INTO IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST AND INDICATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR
KLYH/KDAN. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE VFR FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT
GUSTY AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY AT KBLF...KROA...AND
KBCB.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY LATE THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...AND WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST APPEARS TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF US SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE
LIGHT PRECIP AND MVFR CIGS EDGING TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWATS...STRONG LOW LVL JET AND SATURATED GROUNDS
COMBINED WITH SLOWER MOVING LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS TODAY.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM
TODAY. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED AS NEEDED BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SMALL STREAM FLASH FLOOD THREAT...CONCERN IS
INCREASING THAT WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SOME
OF THE RIVERS WITHIN THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
JAMES/ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THESE
BASINS TODAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES. IF BASIN
AVERAGES EXCEED 1.5 INCHES...THEN WE SURMISE THAT AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING WILL OCCUR...LAG TIME SUGGESTING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
BE THE PERIOD OF TO WATCH. SOME OF THE MORE FLASHY HEADWATER
RIVERS LIKE THE WATAUGA RIVER MAY FLOOD TODAY.
AS FOR THE GREENBRIER RIVER...A LOT DEPENDS OF HOW MUCH SNOW MELTS
IN THE HEADWATERS. ACTUAL RAINFALL WITHIN THAT BASIN HAS NOT BEEN
AS EXCESSIVE...NEVER THE LESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
RIVER BASIN CLOSELY. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR SOME OF THE HEADWATER
STREAMS IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN VA...SUCH AS THE CLINCH AND HOLSTON.
A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WAS LEFT TO MELT ON THOSE
NORTHERN SLOPES. AS FOR THE NEW RIVER...THE HEAVY RAIN WHICH IS
FALLING IN THE HEADWATERS IN NC WILL CERTAINLY BE MOVING DOWN
STREAM. AT THE VERY LEAST ANTICIPATE A HEALTHY RISE ON THE NEW.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
MAINTENANCE WAS BEEN CONDUCTED ON THE KFCX RADAR TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TRANSMITTER AND RECEIVER
ALARMS...SO THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THE RADAR COULD GO DOWN.
TECHNICIANS WILL LOOK AT IT AGAIN TODAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ015>017-
022>024-032>035.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001>003-
018-019.
WV...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MBS/WP
HYDROLOGY...PM/WP
EQUIPMENT...PM/WPHazardous weather outlook, Feb 3, 10:51 AM EST, 3 hours 43 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1051 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ015>017-022>024-032>035-041600- ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-ROANOKE- BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST- 1051 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. VAZ007-009>014-018>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-041600- TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CRAIG- ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER- WESTERN GREENBRIER- 1051 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SHOWERS TODAY COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-041600- STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL- APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE- 1051 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. IF STORMS OCCUR THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Feb 3, 1:15 PM EST, 1 hour 19 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
115 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
NCZ006-VAZ044-058-031845-
CASWELL-HALIFAX-PITTSYLVANIA-
115 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
...A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
NORTHERN CASWELL...CITY OF DANVILLE...SOUTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA AND
HALIFAX COUNTIES...
AT 112 PM EST...A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WAS OBSERVED MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN CASWELL COUNTIES. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AS WELL
AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE AS IT PUSHES
EAST TOWARD HALIFAX COUNTY.
THIS LINE OF SHOWERS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL
RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DANVILLE...
SOUTH BOSTON...
YANCEYVILLE...
BETHEL...
AND HALIFAX.
THIS INCLUDES DANVILLE AIRPORT.
LAT...LON 3639 7952 3688 7934 3693 7875 3691 7873
3654 7891 3654 7914 3638 7915
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 263DEG 26KT 3681 7912 3638 7943
16Local storm report, Feb 3, 1:37 PM EST, 57 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
137 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0115 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 W RONDA 36.21N 81.01W
02/03/2016 WILKES NC PUBLIC
WATER FLOWING OVER COTTON MILL RD.
&&
JRUCKMANSpecial weather statement, Feb 3, 1:44 PM EST, 50 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
144 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
VAZ058-059-031915-
CHARLOTTE-HALIFAX-
144 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
...A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN CHARLOTTE AND EASTERN HALIFAX COUNTIES...
AT 142 PM EST...A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WAS OBSERVED MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH ACROSS EASTERN HALIFAX COUNTY.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY
BY 2 PM.
THIS LINE OF SHOWERS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL
RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTH BOSTON...
HALIFAX...
VIRGILINA...
CLOVER...
AND REDOAK.
LAT...LON 3689 7849 3670 7865 3663 7855 3667 7861
3669 7865 3669 7868 3668 7870 3654 7873
3654 7909 3694 7888 3697 7847
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 266DEG 32KT 3693 7875 3653 7895
16Local storm report, Feb 3, 1:49 PM EST, 45 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
149 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0145 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW REIDSVILLE 36.33N 79.69W
02/03/2016 E1.00 INCH ROCKINGHAM NC TRAINED SPOTTER
HEAVY RAIN HAS CAUSED WATER TO COVER FREEWAY DR AT
RICHARDSON RD.
&&
JRUCKMANSpecial weather statement, Feb 3, 1:51 PM EST, 43 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 151 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 NCZ005-006-031930- ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL- 151 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 ...A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT CASWELL AND EASTERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES... AT 148 PM EST...A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN WAS OBSERVED MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH ACROSS EASTERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE AS IT PUSHES INTO CASWELL COUNTY BY 2 PM. HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE CREEKS AND STREAMS TO RISE QUICKLY...AND WILL ALSO CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WHICH MAY MAKE THEM DIFFICULT TO PASS. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... REIDSVILLE... YANCEYVILLE... BETHEL... CAMP SPRINGS... AND JERICHO. LAT...LON 3625 7973 3654 7967 3654 7914 3624 7916 TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 246DEG 39KT 3644 7952 3602 7973 16
Special weather statement, Feb 3, 2:31 PM EST, 3 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 231 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 NCZ006-032030- CASWELL- 231 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CASWELL COUNTY... AT 228 PM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAINS WAS OVER LEASBURG...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE CREEKS AND STREAMS TO RISE QUICKLY...AND COULD ALSO CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WHICH MAY MAKE THEM DIFFICULT TO PASS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... YANCEYVILLE... PROSPECT HILL... MILTON... SEMORA... AND HAMER. LAT...LON 3625 7934 3654 7930 3654 7914 3625 7915 TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 258DEG 18KT 3636 7916 KK
The office that day
Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 4:00 AM EST | Flash Flood Watch | RNK | Amherst, Bedford, Botetourt, Carroll, Floyd, Franklin and 9 more | 11 hr |
| Feb 3, 8:51 AM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Bland, Smyth, Tazewell, Wythe | 6 hr |
| Feb 3, 9:51 AM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Carroll, Floyd, Grayson, Patrick, City of Galax | 6 hr |
| Feb 3, 10:36 AM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Bedford, Botetourt, Floyd, Franklin, Montgomery, Pulaski and 5 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 3, 10:45 AM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Patrick | 5 hr |
| Feb 3, 11:00 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Henry, City of Martinsville | 45 min |
| Feb 3, 11:32 AM EST | Flash Flood Warning | RNK | Patrick | 6 hr |
| Feb 3, 12:03 PM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Henry, City of Martinsville | 4 hr |
| Feb 3, 12:46 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | RNK | City of Danville | 29 min |
| Feb 3, 1:15 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Halifax, City of Danville | 30 min |
| Feb 3, 1:44 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Halifax | 31 min |
| Feb 3, 2:34 PM EST | River Flood Warning | RNK | Halifax | 4 days |
| Feb 3, 2:43 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Appomattox, Campbell, Charlotte, Halifax | 62 min |
| Feb 3, 4:22 PM EST | Areal Flood Warning | RNK | Montgomery, Roanoke, City of Roanoke, City of Salem | 12 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Virginia, 2016Every river flood warning in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.