Alert archive / Virginia / Flood Watches in 2016
Flood Watch 2, NWS Blacksburg, VA
NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this flood watch at Feb 23, 2016, 5:19 AM EST for 9 counties in North Carolina; 37 counties in Virginia; 4 counties in West Virginia. It took effect at Feb 23, 2016, 7:00 AM EST. It was in force for 34 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 23, 2016, 5:19 AM EST (10:19 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 23, 2016, 7:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Feb 24, 2016, 5:19 PM EST
- In force
- 34 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Blacksburg, VA
- Flood severity
- None
All 50 counties
Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Alleghany County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Carroll County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Henry County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Greenbrier County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Summers County, WV
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 11 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 00:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 61 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 462 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 56 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 309 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 438 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
868 WGUS61 KRNK 231019 FFARNK URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 519 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 ...EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL ON SATURATED GROUND INCREASES THREAT FOR FLOODING... .STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ARE COMBINING TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE REGION TODAY. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE GROUND ACROSS THE REGION IS TOTALLY SATURATED FROM REPEATED RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL EVENTS. ADDITIONAL EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN NEAR TOTAL RUNOFF INTO AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. SOME OF THESE RIVERS WILL LIKELY RISE TO FLOOD LEVELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL ONTO SATURATED GROUND CONTINUES. AREAS WHICH SEEM TO BE AT THE GREATEST RISK ARE THE ROANOKE...DAN...JAMES...YADKIN...AND NEW RIVER BASINS. IN ADDITION...GENERAL INUNDATION FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN LOCATIONS...APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ANY AREAS OF STRONGER CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. NCZ001>005-018>020-VAZ011>020-022>024-032>035-043>045-WVZ044-507- 232000- /O.NEW.KRNK.FA.A.0002.160223T1200Z-160225T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN- GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG- ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN- BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-MONROE- EASTERN GREENBRIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON... DANBURY...EDEN...BOONE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...PEARISBURG... WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE... WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE... CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM... FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT... BEDFORD...AMHERST...MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...LYNCHBURG...UNION... LEWISBURG...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON 519 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CAROLINA...ALLEGHANY NC...ASHE...ROCKINGHAM...STOKES... SURRY...WATAUGA...WILKES AND YADKIN. IN VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA...AMHERST...BATH...BEDFORD...BOTETOURT...CAMPBELL... CARROLL...CRAIG...FLOYD...FRANKLIN...GILES...GRAYSON...HENRY... MONTGOMERY...PATRICK...PITTSYLVANIA...PULASKI...ROANOKE... ROCKBRIDGE AND WYTHE. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...EASTERN GREENBRIER AND MONROE. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING * TWO-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON TOTALLY SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. * FLOODING OF SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS IS LIKELY. LARGER MAIN- STEM RIVER FLOODING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS THE EVENT CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. GENERAL INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS LIKELY. URBAN FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ALSO LIKELY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ RAB
7 follow-up statements
408 WGUS61 KRNK 231946 FFARNK URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 246 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 ...ADDED RAINFALL ON SATURATED GROUND INCREASES THREAT FOR FLOODING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... .A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND PASS JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HEAVIER BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE GROUND ACROSS THE REGION IS TOTALLY SATURATED FROM REPEATED RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL EVENTS. ADDITIONAL EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN NEAR TOTAL RUNOFF INTO AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. SOME OF THESE RIVERS WILL LIKELY RISE TO FLOOD LEVELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL ONTO SATURATED GROUND CONTINUES. AREAS WHICH SEEM TO BE AT THE GREATEST RISK ARE THE ROANOKE...DAN...JAMES...YADKIN...AND NEW RIVER BASINS. IN ADDITION...GENERAL INUNDATION FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN LOCATIONS...APPEARS LIKELY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN ANY AREAS OF STRONGER CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. NCZ006-VAZ007-009-010-046-047-058-059-WVZ042-043-508-240400- /O.EXA.KRNK.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-160225T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CASWELL-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX- CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-WESTERN GREENBRIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YANCEYVILLE...TAZEWELL...MARION... BLAND...APPOMATTOX...SOUTH BOSTON...KEYSVILLE...BLUEFIELD... FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE 246 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS EXPANDED THE * FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... CASWELL. IN VIRGINIA...APPOMATTOX...BLAND...BUCKINGHAM... CHARLOTTE...HALIFAX...SMYTH AND TAZEWELL. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...MERCER...SUMMERS AND WESTERN GREENBRIER. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING * RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.0 TO 2.0 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON TOTALLY SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. * FLOODING OF SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS IS LIKELY. LARGER MAIN- STEM RIVER FLOODING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS THE EVENT CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. GENERAL INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS LIKELY. URBAN FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ALSO LIKELY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ NCZ001>005-018>020-VAZ011>020-022>024-032>035-043>045-WVZ044-507- 240400- /O.CON.KRNK.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-160225T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN- GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG- ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN- BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-MONROE- EASTERN GREENBRIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON... DANBURY...EDEN...BOONE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...PEARISBURG... WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE... WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE... CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM... FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT... BEDFORD...AMHERST...MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...LYNCHBURG...UNION... LEWISBURG...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON 246 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CAROLINA... ALLEGHANY NC...ASHE...ROCKINGHAM...STOKES...SURRY...WATAUGA... WILKES AND YADKIN. IN VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA...AMHERST... BATH...BEDFORD...BOTETOURT...CAMPBELL...CARROLL...CRAIG... FLOYD...FRANKLIN...GILES...GRAYSON...HENRY...MONTGOMERY... PATRICK...PITTSYLVANIA...PULASKI...ROANOKE...ROCKBRIDGE AND WYTHE. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...EASTERN GREENBRIER AND MONROE. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING * RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON TOTALLY SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. * FLOODING OF SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS IS LIKELY. LARGER MAIN- STEM RIVER FLOODING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS THE EVENT CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. GENERAL INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS LIKELY. URBAN FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ALSO LIKELY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$
158 WGUS61 KRNK 240314 FFARNK FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1014 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 ...ADDED RAINFALL ON SATURATED GROUND INCREASES THREAT FOR FLOODING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... .A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND PASS JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE GROUND ACROSS THE REGION IS TOTALLY SATURATED FROM REPEATED RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL EVENTS. ADDITIONAL EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN NEAR TOTAL RUNOFF INTO AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. SOME OF THESE RIVERS WILL LIKELY RISE TO FLOOD LEVELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL ONTO SATURATED GROUND CONTINUES. AREAS WHICH SEEM TO BE AT THE GREATEST RISK ARE THE ROANOKE...DAN...JAMES...YADKIN...AND NEW RIVER BASINS. IN ADDITION...GENERAL INUNDATION FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN LOCATIONS...APPEARS LIKELY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ANY AREAS OF STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM...WHERE RAINFALL RATES MAY APPROACH TWO INCHES PER HOUR....MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059- WVZ042>044-507-508-241200- /O.CON.KRNK.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-160225T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES- YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY- GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT- ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA- CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS- MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON... DANBURY...EDEN...YANCEYVILLE...BOONE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE... TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD... PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE... VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON... HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON... BUENA VISTA...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...BEDFORD...AMHERST... MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...LYNCHBURG...APPOMATTOX...SOUTH BOSTON... KEYSVILLE...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION... LEWISBURG...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...QUINWOOD...DUO... RAINELLE 1014 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CAROLINA... ALLEGHANY NC...ASHE...CASWELL...ROCKINGHAM...STOKES...SURRY... WATAUGA...WILKES AND YADKIN. IN VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA... AMHERST...APPOMATTOX...BATH...BEDFORD...BLAND...BOTETOURT... BUCKINGHAM...CAMPBELL...CARROLL...CHARLOTTE...CRAIG...FLOYD... FRANKLIN...GILES...GRAYSON...HALIFAX...HENRY...MONTGOMERY... PATRICK...PITTSYLVANIA...PULASKI...ROANOKE...ROCKBRIDGE... SMYTH...TAZEWELL AND WYTHE. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA... EASTERN GREENBRIER...MERCER...MONROE...SUMMERS AND WESTERN GREENBRIER. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING * RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL FALL ON GROUND COMPLETELY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. * FLOODING OF SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS IS LIKELY. LARGER MAIN- STEM RIVER FLOODING MAY ALSO BE EXPECTED AS THE EVENT CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. GENERAL INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS LIKELY. URBAN FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ALSO LIKELY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$
099 WGUS61 KRNK 240932 FFARNK FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 432 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 ...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING... .A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVIER AT TIMES THIS MORNING...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WITH A SATURATED GROUND AND ELEVATED STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLOODING AND EVEN FLASH FLOODING. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY THIS EVENING. NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059- WVZ042>044-507-508-241745- /O.CON.KRNK.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-160225T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES- YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY- GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT- ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA- CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS- MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON... DANBURY...EDEN...YANCEYVILLE...BOONE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE... TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD... PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE... VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON... HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON... BUENA VISTA...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...BEDFORD...AMHERST... MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...LYNCHBURG...APPOMATTOX...SOUTH BOSTON... KEYSVILLE...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION... LEWISBURG...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...QUINWOOD...DUO... RAINELLE 432 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. * THROUGH THIS EVENING. * RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE HALF TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL FALL ON SATURATED GROUND. * FLOODING OF SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS IS LIKELY. LARGER MAIN- STEM RIVER FLOODING MAY ALSO BE EXPECTED AS THE EVENT CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. GENERAL INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS LIKELY. URBAN FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ALSO LIKELY. * LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$
007 WGUS61 KRNK 241730 FFARNK FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1230 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 ...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING... .A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WITH A SATURATED GROUND AND ELEVATED STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLOODING AND EVEN FLASH FLOODING. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY THIS EVENING. NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059- WVZ042>044-507-508-250000- /O.CON.KRNK.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-160225T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES- YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY- GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT- ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA- CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS- MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON... DANBURY...EDEN...YANCEYVILLE...BOONE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE... TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD... PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE... VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON... HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON... BUENA VISTA...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...BEDFORD...AMHERST... MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...LYNCHBURG...APPOMATTOX...SOUTH BOSTON... KEYSVILLE...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION... LEWISBURG...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...QUINWOOD...DUO... RAINELLE 1230 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CAROLINA... ALLEGHANY NC...ASHE...CASWELL...ROCKINGHAM...STOKES...SURRY... WATAUGA...WILKES AND YADKIN. IN VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA... AMHERST...APPOMATTOX...BATH...BEDFORD...BLAND...BOTETOURT... BUCKINGHAM...CAMPBELL...CARROLL...CHARLOTTE...CRAIG...FLOYD... FRANKLIN...GILES...GRAYSON...HALIFAX...HENRY...MONTGOMERY... PATRICK...PITTSYLVANIA...PULASKI...ROANOKE...ROCKBRIDGE... SMYTH...TAZEWELL AND WYTHE. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA... EASTERN GREENBRIER...MERCER...MONROE...SUMMERS AND WESTERN GREENBRIER. * UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING * RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE HALF TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL FALL ON SATURATED GROUND. * FLOODING OF SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS...IS POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ MBS
608 WGUS61 KRNK 242015 FFARNK FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 315 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 ...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING... .A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WITH A SATURATED GROUND AND ELEVATED STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLOODING AND EVEN FLASH FLOODING. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY THIS EVENING. NCZ001>005-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>034-043-WVZ042>044- 507-508-242115- /O.CAN.KRNK.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-160225T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN- TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON- CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT- ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-HENRY-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE- EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON... DANBURY...EDEN...BOONE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...TAZEWELL... MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...PULASKI... BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY... GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON... HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON... BUENA VISTA...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...BEDFORD...MARTINSVILLE... BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG... WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE 315 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. $$ NCZ006-VAZ035-044>047-058-059-250000- /O.CON.KRNK.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-160225T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CASWELL-AMHERST-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM- HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YANCEYVILLE...AMHERST...DANVILLE... LYNCHBURG...APPOMATTOX...SOUTH BOSTON...KEYSVILLE 315 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...CASWELL. IN VIRGINIA...AMHERST...APPOMATTOX... BUCKINGHAM...CAMPBELL...CHARLOTTE...HALIFAX AND PITTSYLVANIA. * UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING * RAINFALL TOTALS LOCALLY UP TO 1 INCH WILL FALL ON SATURATED GROUND. * FLOODING OF SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS...IS POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ MBS
544 WGUS61 KRNK 242104 FFARNK FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 404 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 ...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING... .A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WITH A SATURATED GROUND AND ELEVATED STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLOODING AND EVEN FLASH FLOODING. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY THIS EVENING. NCZ006-VAZ035-044-045-242215- /O.CAN.KRNK.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-160225T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CASWELL-AMHERST-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YANCEYVILLE...AMHERST...DANVILLE... LYNCHBURG 404 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. $$ VAZ046-047-058-059-250000- /O.CON.KRNK.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-160225T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...APPOMATTOX...SOUTH BOSTON...KEYSVILLE 404 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... APPOMATTOX AND BUCKINGHAM. IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA... CHARLOTTE AND HALIFAX. * UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING * RAINFALL TOTALS LOCALLY UP TO 1 INCH WILL FALL ON SATURATED GROUND. * FLOODING OF SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS...IS POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$
477 WGUS61 KRNK 242219 FFARNK FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 519 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED... .A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WATCH AREA. VAZ046-047-058-059-242330- /O.CAN.KRNK.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-160225T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...APPOMATTOX...SOUTH BOSTON...KEYSVILLE 519 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSSED THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS LINE RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Feb 22, 11:12 PM EST, 6 hours 7 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 22, 11:12 PM EST, 6 hours 7 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1112 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT WILL RUN OVER THE TOP OF A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 920 PM EST MONDAY... LEADING EDGE OF LARGE AREA OF RAIN HAD ADVANCED TO A TAZEWELL TO DANVILLE LINE. LATEST HRRR...RAP AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE HAD THIS RAIN REACHING THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z/1AM. HAVE ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES TONIGHT. HAVE MAD MINOR CHANGES TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMALL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT FLOW UP AND OVER THE WEDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL COME THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT LINGERING SHOWERS AND LIGHTER RAIN WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND GIVE LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE RAIN TOTALS OF ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL SEE MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL AS THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A SOLID SOAKING RAIN AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SPOTS FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA READINGS WILL APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK LATE TONIGHT AND MAY GENERATE SOME SLEET OR POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY... A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE LOWER TN AND THEN OHIO VALLEYS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DEEPENING ALL THE WHILE TO AROUND 984 MB. STRONG WEDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES EAST LATE IN THE DAY. DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO SEVERAL STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN OVER MUCH OF OUR REGION. WHAT THIS SPELLS IS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A SOLID 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FALLING IN THE 12Z WED TO 00Z THUR TIME FRAME. HIGHER AMOUNTS IN TERRAIN ENHANCED LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE CERTAINLY LIKELY AND POINT RAINFALL VALUES OF 3 TO 4 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN SOME AREAS. THE SYSTEM IS GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE AGAINST ANY VERY EXTREME AMOUNTS BUT A SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE APPEARS ALL BUT INEVITABLE WHETHER IT IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OR SUBSEQUENT RIVER FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS BOUND TO BE EXCEEDED AT SOME DURATIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE SNOW COVER ONLY RECENTLY DEPARTED. DAY 3 (12Z WED-12Z THU) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM WPC HIGHLIGHTS THE ENTIRE APPALACHIAN CHAIN FROM GA TO NY STATE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCEEDING FFG. HENCE THERE IS HIGH PROBABILITY THAT SOME TYPE OF FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME. STILL LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE WEDGE FINALLY RETREATS AND THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WEDNESDAY SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF EAST OF ABOUT DANVILLE TO LYNCHBURG LINE WITH SLIGHT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. SREF AND NAM GUIDANCE FROM MORNINGS MODEL RUNS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER A SMALL PORTION OF OUR EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...SO WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER IN THE GRIDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER EASTERN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH NO MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS YET...MIGHT BE ADDED LATER AS SITUATION CLARIFIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO MORE WINTRY TYPE COLD AS H85 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C IN THE NW BY FRIDAY MORNING. UPSLOPE SNOW IS LIKELY IN FAVORED AREAS WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING 50 MPH ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY... STILL DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO BE WELL INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS DROPPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION WITHIN UPPER TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. H85 TEMPS BACK OFF INTO THE -8 TO -12C RANGE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW LATE FEBRUARY CLIMO...NEAR 30 NW TO LOW 40S SE FOR HIGHS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS. SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1110 PM EST MONDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SATURATED AIR MASS FROM THE SURFACE WELL INTO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WERE REPORTED WITHIN THE WEDGE DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS LATER TUESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY TAF SITES WHERE CEILINGS MAY LIFT ARE KLWB AND KBLF. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...LOW CIGS/VSBYS AND HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM MAKING FOR VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY... AS DISCUSSED IN SHORT TERM PORTION OF DISCUSSION THE IMPENDING PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE HYDROLOGICALLY WITH SOME TYPE OF FLOODING VERY LIKELY. ONCE THE UPDATED QPF FORECASTS WHICH INCLUDE THE ENTIRE DURATION OF THE EVENT ARE INGESTED INTO HYDROLOGIC MODELS AT THE RFCS A NUMBER OF RIVERS ARE ALMOST CERTAIN BE FORECAST TO FLOOD. THIS INCLUDES THE LOWER ROANOKE AND DAN AND POSSIBLY MUCH OF THE JAMES...WHICH HAS NOT ACTUALLY SEEN ANY FLOOD STAGES REACHED SINCE 2013 AT THE BUCHANAN GAGE FOR EXAMPLE. THE NEW AND GREENBRIER AND TENNESSEE BASINS MAY ESCAPE DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER QPF FORECASTS OWING TO DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLOW BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO A LIMITED WINDOW ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHEN HIGHER RATES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE LONGER DURATION MINOR FLOODING OR NEAR FLOODING BECOMES RAPIDLY EXACERBATED BY MORE INTENSE RAINFALL FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WE HAVE SEEN THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WET FALL/WINTER SEASON. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS SHORT TERM...PC LONG TERM...PC AVIATION...AMS/RCS HYDROLOGY...PC
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 22, 5:30 AM EST, 23 hours 49 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 530 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 NCZ002-003-019-VAZ009>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-045>047-WVZ044-507- 231100- ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WILKES-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY- CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE- PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM- MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER- 530 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH COMPLETELY SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT...WILL RESULT IN FLOODING. A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH MAY REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT TIME FRAME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043-044-058-059-231100- STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-HALIFAX- CHARLOTTE- 530 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY IN ADVANCE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH COMPLETELY SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT...WILL RESULT IN FLOODING. A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ001-018-VAZ007-015-WVZ042-043-508-231100- ASHE-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-GRAYSON-MERCER-SUMMERS-WESTERN GREENBRIER- 530 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH COMPLETELY SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT...WILL RESULT IN FLOODING. A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH MAY REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT TIME FRAME. FINALLY...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH MAY REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. RAB
The office that day
Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2:46 PM EST | Wind Advisory | RNK | Alleghany, Ashe, Watauga | 64 hr |
Nearby
Flood Watches in Virginia, 2016Flood Watches in North Carolina, 2016Flood Watches in West Virginia, 2016Every flood watch in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.