Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS Blacksburg, VA

643 
WGUS61 KRNK 040231
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1031 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND NORTHERN
VIRGINIA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF SLOW MOVING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

VAZ019-020-WVZ507-508-041045-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0006.160704T1200Z-160705T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...LEWISBURG...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...
QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
1031 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST 
  VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN WEST CENTRAL 
  VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA AND BATH. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
   EASTERN GREENBRIER AND WESTERN GREENBRIER. 

* FROM 8 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL 
  ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY 
  MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN 
  THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. 

* RAPID RISES ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS ALONG WITH POOR DRAINAGE 
  COULD LEAD TO MORE FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

402 
WGUS61 KRNK 040923
FFARNK

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
523 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT NIGHT...

.SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO AND KENTUCKY INTO WEST VIRGINIA...AND VIRGINIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. 

VAZ011-018-023-024-WVZ042>044-042100-
/O.EXA.KRNK.FF.A.0006.160704T1200Z-160705T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GILES-CRAIG-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PEARISBURG...NEW CASTLE...FINCASTLE...
LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...
UNION
523 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND 
  SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  VIRGINIA...BOTETOURT...CRAIG...GILES AND ROCKBRIDGE. IN 
  SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...MERCER...MONROE AND SUMMERS. 

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
  WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
  1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY
  NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.

* RAPID RISES ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS ALONG WITH POOR DRAINAGE
  COULD LEAD TO MORE FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

VAZ019-020-WVZ507-508-042100-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0006.160704T1200Z-160705T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...LEWISBURG...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...
QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
523 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST 
  VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN WEST CENTRAL 
  VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA AND BATH. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
   EASTERN GREENBRIER AND WESTERN GREENBRIER. 

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
  WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
  1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY
  NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.

* RAPID RISES ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS ALONG WITH POOR DRAINAGE
  COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

437 
WGUS61 KRNK 040924 CCA
FFARNK

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
524 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO AND KENTUCKY INTO WEST VIRGINIA...AND VIRGINIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. 

VAZ011-018-023-024-WVZ042>044-042130-
/O.EXA.KRNK.FF.A.0006.160704T1200Z-160705T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GILES-CRAIG-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PEARISBURG...NEW CASTLE...FINCASTLE...
LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...
UNION
524 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND 
  SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  VIRGINIA...BOTETOURT...CRAIG...GILES AND ROCKBRIDGE. IN 
  SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...MERCER...MONROE AND SUMMERS. 

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
  WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
  1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY
  NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.

* RAPID RISES ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS ALONG WITH POOR DRAINAGE
  COULD LEAD TO MORE FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

VAZ019-020-WVZ507-508-042130-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0006.160704T1200Z-160705T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...LEWISBURG...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...
QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
524 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST 
  VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN WEST CENTRAL 
  VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA AND BATH. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
   EASTERN GREENBRIER AND WESTERN GREENBRIER. 

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
  WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
  1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY
  NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.

* RAPID RISES ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS ALONG WITH POOR DRAINAGE
  COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

466 
WGUS61 KRNK 041944
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
344 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

.SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA INTO TUESDAY MORNING. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

VAZ011-018>020-023-024-WVZ042>044-507-508-050345-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-160705T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PEARISBURG...NEW CASTLE...
CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...
BUENA VISTA...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...
LEWISBURG...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...QUINWOOD...DUO...
RAINELLE
344 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA...BATH... 
  BOTETOURT...CRAIG...GILES AND ROCKBRIDGE. IN SOUTHEAST WEST 
  VIRGINIA...EASTERN GREENBRIER...MERCER...MONROE...SUMMERS AND 
  WESTERN GREENBRIER. 

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS TO ONE AND A
  QUARTER INCHES TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE
  AREA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A LINE OF STRONGER
  STORMS LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THESE
  STORMS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES...LOCAL HIGH AMOUNTS
  ARE POSSIBLE.

* RAPID RISES ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS ALONG WITH POOR DRAINAGE
  COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
RCS

217 
WGUS61 KRNK 050348
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1148 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...

.A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN.

VAZ011-018>020-023-024-WVZ042>044-507-508-051200-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-160705T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PEARISBURG...NEW CASTLE...
CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...
BUENA VISTA...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...
LEWISBURG...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...QUINWOOD...DUO...
RAINELLE
1148 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA...BATH... 
  BOTETOURT...CRAIG...GILES AND ROCKBRIDGE. IN SOUTHEAST WEST 
  VIRGINIA...EASTERN GREENBRIER...MERCER...MONROE...SUMMERS AND 
  WESTERN GREENBRIER. 

* UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY

* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN A QUARTER
  INCH...BUT A FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL.

* RAPID RISES ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS ALONG WITH POOR DRAINAGE 
  COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

528 
WGUS61 KRNK 050820
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
420 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED...

.SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS ARE EXPCTED THIS
MORNING. 

VAZ011-018>020-023-024-WVZ042>044-507-508-050930-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-160705T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PEARISBURG...NEW CASTLE...
CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...
BUENA VISTA...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...
LEWISBURG...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...QUINWOOD...DUO...
RAINELLE
420 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN
ONE INCH. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
110 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak stationary front across the Carolinas will remain south of
the area today and tonight. The front will advance northward as a
warm front on Monday. This boundary will allow storms to track
into the region Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM EDT Sunday...

A weak shallow wedge will remain through the day especially along
and east of the Blue Ridge north of 460. Low level easterly flow
is up through 2000 feet, westerly above the wedge. A vast majority
of the sounding is saturated through 20,000 feet. For the
majority of the day, expect low clouds and cooler than normal
temperatures. Areas north of highway 460 will see passing rain
showers this afternoon and evening. South of 460, particularly the
Mountain Empire, the wedge may erode allowing clouds to break late
this afternoon. This area may see a few thunderstorms into this
evening. If clouds can break along and south of the VA/NC border
by this evening, a few thunderstorms may track there as well. For
now, clouds are limiting instabilities to keep severe threat low.

As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...

Wave currently producing clusters of deeper convection that are
exiting the southeast sections attm should slide east early this
morning taking best lift to the east. Behind this feature, will
see high pressure fill in from the north resulting in the
development of a decent low level wedge over eastern sections
today into tonight. This should limit added shower coverage in the
east through this afternoon while corridor of deeper instability
will take shape on the west side of the wedge, along the
interstate 77 corridor. Even there support rather limited this
afternoon, but most meso solutions suggest things may unzip from
north to south western third through the afternoon espcly along
the 850 mb theta-e gradient. Thus running with the highest chance
pops there with scattered coverage out east, where will remain
rather stable with main lift above the developing cool pool.

High temps very tricky today given such a warm/soupy start
followed by increasing easterly flow Blue Ridge east, and a more
southerly trajectory to the west. Given tendency of the Nam to do
best in this scenario, followed closer to the Met mos highs with
some upward tweaks based on current obs. This results in a range
from only low/mid 70 northeast to 75-80 Blue Ridge to around 80
far west, pending just how widespread low clouds are early, and
whether any breaks develop out east at all later. This could
result in highs only in the upper 60s LYH vicinity.

Area basically remains in between support overnight with the front to
the south and an initial wave with a likely MCS working toward the Ohio
Valley late. Guidance showing some weak lift overtop the lingering
wedge but only enough for spotty showers early after any evening
convection southwest, and perhaps a band of heavier rainfall far
north/northwest late if convection develops along the baroclinic
zone in advance of the upstream impulse. This southward scenario
seen more so with the latest ECMWF and less with other solutions
including the SREF. Otherwise think best chances reside over the
southwest early on per weak upslope flow, and then late with some
spillover from the northwest. Otherwise cloudy and muggy with lows
mostly in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EDT Sunday...

Main period of concern during the holiday as the boundary lifts back
north as a warm front during the day while complexes look to traverse
in from the west with the upper system heading out of the midwest.
Biggest question is just how far south the axis of very heavy rainfall
will establish given more of a westerly vs northwest trajectory aloft
and the front sliding farther north. Models have continued to trend
north with the corridor of deeper convection with now only the
bottom edge of the heavier rainfall clipping our wetter northwest
counties. This looks to also be a combination of showers early
Monday, and then more outflow induced deeper convection along the
bottom edge of the main lift to the north late Monday. Elsewhere
appears convection will be more scattered nature to the south of
the main lift along the jet with moisture convergence being driven
along the departing boundary during heating Monday afternoon. This
looks to affect more of the western/northern counties with less
QPF to the south and east for now. However likely more of a severe
threat Monday afternoon as soundings show decent unidirectional
flow aloft above increasing instability including some dry air
aloft. Could also be a tight gradient in coverage including QPF
Monday with likely/categorical pops to start northwest, then
likely/categorical swinging through the west/north during the
afternoon with only scattered coverage elsewhere.

Based on continued high pwats, any convection would again result
in heavy rainfall with the highest threat again over the more
flood prone northwest counties. However based on the northward
shift in more organized heavy rainfall, and some increase in FFG
this past week, appears threat may be more localized and would
prefer another run before hoisting a flash flood watch at this
point. Highs mostly upper 70s to mid 80s except perhaps some upper
80s far south, where a surge in warm advection will occur under
more insolation behind the exiting front a bit sooner on Monday.

Appears scattered convection will persist into Monday night but will
again may be in a void region between the front to the north and a
trailing band of shra/tsra swinging in from the northwest behind a
second wave across the Mid Atlantic. However just how fast this band
spills southeast remains in question given strength of the convection
and how far north the second wave ends up going. Therefore continuing
trend of likely or higher pops northwest third espcly Monday evening
with mostly chance or less central/southern sections where could be
even less coverage.

By Tuesday, the main short wave that will cause the heavy rainfall
and severe weather potential on Monday will be northeast of the
region moving off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. However, a
trailing front will be left behind and draped across the region
from northern VA into eastern TN and points southwest. While the
main dynamics have shifted away from the region, thermodynamic
profiles for Tuesday actually look more favorable for strong to
severe thunderstorms than Monday. However, with the lack of
forcing, not clear how much there will be. Nonetheless, with the
frontal system drifting through the CWA during peak heating,
thunderstorms are expected and a few strong storms with heavy
rainfall can certainly not be ruled out given the high CAPES and
high PWATS remaining in place.

By Wednesday, increasing ridging aloft is noted by most models as
a subtropical ridge continues to build westward into the
southeastern U.S. from the Bahamas. Unfortunately, a weak surface
boundary lingers across NC into the southeast states, a common
occurrence recently. Given the high pressure aloft to the south,
it is very unlikely that this boundary will make any further
progress to the south, more likely just wash out. Nonetheless, the
boundary combined with diurnal heating will likely continue to
trigger afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Activity will likely
tend to be more numerous across the western mountains and may
linger into the evening/overnight hours in the west. Have tailored
pops accordingly.

Temperatures will be held down somewhat Tuesday because of cloud
cover and precipitation, but begin a trend upward through the
remainder of the period as 850mb temps creep toward +20C. Look for
max temps mostly in the 70s to lower 80s west and mid to upper 80s
east Tuesday creeping up about 5 degrees by Wednesday. Lows will
remain well above normal with high PWATS/RH values, mainly in the
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 515 AM EDT Sunday...

Some differences noted between the GFS and the ECMWF, but the main
focus through the period will be on a building subtropical ridge
across the southeast states with gradually increasing heights. The
westerlies are generally relocated further north than they have
been in recent weeks, mostly north of 40 deg. latitude. This will
tend to remove the most active weather and MCS potential from our
region and locate it further north. However, the ECMWF
especially, depicts a strong short wave Thursday that could
temporarily push the westerlies further south and potentially
allow another MCS to drift into at least the northern portion of
the CWA Thursday. Too much difference among the GFS/ECMWF to put
much confidence in this just yet.

Clearly through the remainder of the period, Friday through
Saturday, heights continue to build and approach 590dm as 850mb
temps rise into the +20C to +22C range. There is no appearance of
a wedge in the pattern, so it could be quite toasty during the
later half of the week. MEX guidance has highs in the 90s even at
BCB late in the week with lows in the 70s. These temperatures will
be about 7-10 degrees above normal.

Thunderstorm activity should become increasingly diurnal in nature
after Thursday with little forcing evident.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Sunday...

Poor flying conditions will continue across much of the region
this afternoon with a low level wedge resulting in IFR/LIFR cigs
in stratus as well as MVFR/IFR vsbys in fog and showers. Latest
guidance quite slow to lift IFR cigs espcly Blue Ridge east this
afternoon as easterly flow keeps the cool pool in place. Thus will
trend most locations toward IFR/MVFR cigs lingering from KBCB
east, while cigs/vsbys rise to VFR at KBLF, and perhaps KLWB as
warmer air rides up along the western mountains.

Added deep convective threat appears less out east this afternoon
and evening with better chances over the west where will see more
heating/instability. For now will keep going trend of having more
showers mountains, followed by developing shra/tsra late this
afternoon, but mostly MVFR and without thunder mention out east
for now.

Wedge will linger tonight with conditions likely spilling back
into MVFR/IFR and possible LIFR in lower cigs/fog along with
lingering showers or patchy light rain.

Extended discussion...

The front will remain stalled over the region Monday into Tuesday
which may yield some heavier rain and storms at times as complexes
of showers and thunderstorms spill east. Overall VFR outside
storms except more widespread sub-VFR possible later Sunday into
Tuesday, and at night with fog/low clouds. Ridging should finally
strengthen over the area by midweek resulting in more widespread
VFR including more diurnally driven afternoon/evening convection
and subsequent periods of MVFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...JH/RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/KK/RCS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
452 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016

VAZ007-009>014-018-023-035-046-047-WVZ042>044-040900-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-BOTETOURT-
AMHERST-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
452 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FLASH FLOODING
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORMS.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015>017-022-032>034-043>045-058-059-040900-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-ROANOKE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-HENRY-
PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
452 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALIZED
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS OF
STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

VAZ019-020-024-WVZ507-508-040900-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROCKBRIDGE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
452 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
934 AM EDT SUN JUL 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNW TURBEVILLE        36.69N 79.06W
07/02/2016                   HALIFAX            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TWO TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF ROUTES
            683 AND 680.

&&

DS