Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Blacksburg, VA

108 
WGUS61 KRNK 230135
FFARNK

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
935 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO VIRGINIA. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW 
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO SLIDE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA FROM
THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION TOWARD
DAYBREAK. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE SAME LOCATIONS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

VAZ007-WVZ042-231000-
/O.EXA.KRNK.FF.A.0004.160623T0400Z-160623T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TAZEWELL-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP
935 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA 
  AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS... 
  IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...TAZEWELL. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
   MERCER. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

* MAY CAUSE RAPIDLY RISING STREAMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH 
  FLOODING. 

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR ARE
  POSSIBLE. IF RAIN EXCEEDS 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR, THEN FLASH
  FLOODING WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

VAZ019-020-WVZ043-044-507-508-231000-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0004.160623T0400Z-160623T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...HINTON...HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG...
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
935 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST 
  VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN WEST CENTRAL 
  VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA AND BATH. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
   EASTERN GREENBRIER...MONROE...SUMMERS AND WESTERN GREENBRIER. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

* MAY CAUSE RAPIDLY RISING STREAMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH 
  FLOODING. 

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR ARE
  POSSIBLE. IF RAIN EXCEEDS 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR, THEN FLASH
  FLOODING WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

MBS

499 
WGUS61 KRNK 230808
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
408 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY...

.A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN INDIANA SOUTHEAST INTO VIRGINIA AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY
BRING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS
OF VIRGINIA FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK INTO MID MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE SAME
LOCATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

VAZ007-019-020-WVZ042>044-507-508-231800-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-160623T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TAZEWELL-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...
LEWISBURG...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...QUINWOOD...DUO...
RAINELLE
408 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA...BATH AND 
  TAZEWELL. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...EASTERN GREENBRIER... 
  MERCER...MONROE...SUMMERS AND WESTERN GREENBRIER. 

* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

* THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

* MAY CAUSE RAPIDLY RISING STREAMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH 
  FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

WERT

001 
WGUS61 KRNK 231601
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1201 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.ADDED BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
TIMES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE SAME LOCATIONS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

VAZ007-019-020-WVZ042>044-507-508-232200-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-160623T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TAZEWELL-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...
LEWISBURG...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...QUINWOOD...DUO...
RAINELLE
1201 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA...BATH AND 
  TAZEWELL. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...EASTERN GREENBRIER... 
  MERCER...MONROE...SUMMERS AND WESTERN GREENBRIER. 

* UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING

* THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

* MAY CAUSE RAPIDLY RISING STREAMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH 
  FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

067 
WGUS61 KRNK 231620 AAA
FFARNK

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1220 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.ADDED BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
TIMES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE SAME LOCATIONS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

VAZ023-024-035-240000-
/O.EXB.KRNK.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-160624T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...
AMHERST
1220 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND 
  WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AMHERST. IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA... 
  BOTETOURT AND ROCKBRIDGE. 

* UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING

* THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

* MAY CAUSE RAPIDLY RISING STREAMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH 
  FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

VAZ007-019-020-WVZ042>044-507-508-240000-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-160624T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TAZEWELL-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...
LEWISBURG...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...QUINWOOD...DUO...
RAINELLE
1220 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA...BATH AND 
  TAZEWELL. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...EASTERN GREENBRIER... 
  MERCER...MONROE...SUMMERS AND WESTERN GREENBRIER. 

* UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING

* THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

* MAY CAUSE RAPIDLY RISING STREAMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH 
  FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

247 
WGUS61 KRNK 232317 AAA
FFARNK

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
717 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.ADDED BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE SAME LOCATIONS INTO LATE THIS EVENING.

VAZ007-019-020-023-024-035-WVZ042>044-507-508-240300-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-160624T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TAZEWELL-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-MERCER-
SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...AMHERST...
BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG...
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
717 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA...AMHERST... 
  BATH...BOTETOURT...ROCKBRIDGE AND TAZEWELL. IN SOUTHEAST WEST 
  VIRGINIA...EASTERN GREENBRIER...MERCER...MONROE...SUMMERS AND 
  WESTERN GREENBRIER. 

* UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING

* THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

* WILL CAUSE RAPIDLY RISING STREAMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
  FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

649 
WGUS61 KRNK 240305
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1105 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016


VAZ007-019-020-023-024-035-WVZ042>044-507-508-240415-
/O.EXP.KRNK.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-160624T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TAZEWELL-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-MERCER-
SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...AMHERST...
BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG...
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
1105 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA HAS EXPIRED. 

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
RUNOFF FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FROM GREENBRIER COUNTY
IN WEST VIRGINIA THORUGH THE ALLEGHANY HIGNLADS OF VIRGINIA. DO
NOT TRAVEL IN THIS AREA TONIGHT AS FLOOD DAMAGE IS MUCH MORE
DIFFICULT TO SEE IN THE DARK. NEVER DRIVE THORUGH AREAS WHERE
WATER COVERS THE ROAD - TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.

$$

MBS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
500 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front extends from northern Illinois into Virginia. A
strong upper level wave of low pressure is expected to move across
the Ohio Valley tonight and Thursday. This will result in numerous
showers and thunderstorms along the warm front and ahead of the
upper level low. An outbreak of severe weather is expected over
the Ohio Valley tonight, the threat for severe storms migrating
east across the Mid-Atlantic States for Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

MCS from earlier today has fragmented into scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms. Can't rule out a strong storm this evening, but
cloud debris over the area is limiting instability.

Main concern for the overnight is what develops upstream of the
forecast area from Illinois into Indiana. The Ohio Valley remains
primary focus to catch the brunt of a major MCS this evening and
overnight. Approach of an upper level short wave trough from MN/WI
is forecast to initiate a thunderstorm complex which will race
east across the Ohio Valley...pushed along by a strong 60+ Mid
Level Jet. This will likely transition into a damaging wind event
for parts of the Ohio Valley. For our forecast area, it would be
late tonight before remnants of any sort of MCS would have a
chance to reach our CWA, and by that time it would be in a
weakening state.

That being said, the greatest concern in the near term may be
development of hydro issues. In spite of being shaded by the cloud
debris today, the airmass remains soupy with respect to dewpoints.
PWATS are forecast to climb into the 1.70 range by Thursday
morning with a continuous feed of 85h moisture into the region
from the TN and lower Ohio Valley. In addition to the warm front
which is over the region...outflow from the remnant MCS that
passed over the area today left an outflow boundary which extends
northwest from our CWA into eastern KY. This boundary may become
the focus for thunderstorms to develop overnight with shower/storm
axis becoming oriented NW-SE. Even if storms do not develop this
evening, the MCS which moves southeast from the OH Valley will
eventually reach the forecast area and introduce excessive
rainfall problems. As such have begun to add counties to a Flash
Flood watch which was initiated by WFO CRW. The watch for our
counties covers the Greenbrier Valley and the VA highlands where
confidence is highest for excessive rainfall. This watch may need
to be expanded farther south pending radar trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 430 PM EDT Wednesday...

May already be ongoing organized thunderstorm activity across
northern portions of CWA early in the morning, but perhaps just to
the north, but this will help bring frontal boundary closer to
northern edge of CWA if not into it, which may be important for
determining track of most significant parts of next organized
cluster or line ahead of next upper level wave and cold front push
from the northwest. Most likely this will move in late afternoon
or early evening, a little faster timing than earlier thought, but
how far across the mountains it gets is more uncertain. May
ultimately have more of a west-east oriented of thunderstorms
pushing southward or south-southeastward from late afternoon into
late evening hours, but this could be more broken line east of the
Piedmont, and with westerly upper level flow could even be that
some areas just east of Blue Ridge get skipped almost completely.
Best chances for rain as well as damaging wind potential with
stronger parts of the convective line will be in the mountains
late Thursday into the evening. Again, may need to consider part
of the mountains for flash flood threat depending on what happens
late tonight and early Thursday morning.

Still expecting some sunshine Thursday, especially southern
sections and east of Blue Ridge, such as Southside VA and north-
central NC, and with westerly downslope expecting temperatures
easily into the 90s if not mid 90s. However, trends are for more
cloud cover moving in from the west and north and possibly a
little earlier, so this may cut down a couple degrees from earlier
thinking.

Bottom line is that there remains considerable uncertainty in
terms of tracks of possible two potential organized clusters of
storms, one very early Thursday and one later in the day. Northern
parts of area most likely to see impacts from first one, while
much more of area could see impacts, including damaging winds,
from second one late Thursday.

For Friday, frontal boundary will linger just to the south of the
RNK CWA across Tennessee and North Carolina and this is close
enough for some continued low chance of scattered showers and
storms, but this will be most likely across the southern half of
area as well as in mountains. The main severe threat would be
south of the front which will likely remain south of the RNK CWA.
A wave along front may develop across western NC and that could
be where best chances for showers and storms end up. Temperatures
generally will be 5-10 degrees cooler, especially northeast part
of the area with northeast low level flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 430 PM EDT Wednesday...

Broad upper ridge is forecast to remain over the the southern United
States, no surprise since its now officially summer. Models differ on
magnitude and overall spacial coverage, but think its a given the
desert southwest will continue to bake. In the southeast CONUS the
upper ridge seems to go through more of an ebb and flow cycle with
heights rising and falling over the Mid-Atlantic states in between
the larger short wave troughs which have been more cyclic over
eastern Canada, Great Lakes and New England.

Attm it appears the ridge will build north across the Mid Atlantic
Region for the weekend promoting semi-dry weather. The increasing
subsidence should limit the chance for showers for all but the
mountains, the mountains serving as a forcing mechanism for widely
scattered late afternoon and evening pop-up activity (nothing
severe). The ridge is forecast to weaken again for early next
week, with some of the models now hinting that a higher amplitude
trough may set-up over the eastern CONUS by the weeks end. This
will send a cold front through the Mid-Atlantic region in the
Monday-Tuesday time frame with potential for a cooling trend
toward the end of next week. The 6-10 day outlook suggests below
normal temperatures to start off the first few days of July.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

A cold front remains draped over the Ohio River Valley, while
waves of mesoscale convective systems continue to approach the Mid
Atlantic from the west. Thunderstorms should reach BLF and LWB
shortly based on the latest radar trends. The potential for
thunder was also inserted into ROA/BCB/DAN later this afternoon.
Confidence for thunder is lowest at LYH due to cloudy skies that
is limiting instability and the continued right turn of the
approaching storms that may likely miss LYH to the south.

After the showers and thunderstorms pass during the evening,
conditions should generally be VFR with mid-level cloudiness that
should limit any development of fog. Short-term models hint at
another line of showers and thunderstorms passing to the north
after midnight, but the chances are high enough to mention VCTS
for BLF/LWB/BCB. Confidence is too low for ROA/LYH/DAN due to
considerable uncertainty that the storms can reach these areas
during the night. Breezy west winds should pick up west of the
Blue Ridge by Thursday, but VFR conditions should prevail for all
TAF sites later in the day.

Extended discussion...

The cold front that has lingered over the Ohio River Valley for
the past few days should begin to push southward during Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. As a result, another round of
showers and thunderstorms should cross over the Mid-Atlantic at
that time. Some severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
evening with strong winds as the primary threat. High pressure
will try to build from the northeast on Saturday, but there should
be enough instability over the mountains for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms during the weekend. Coverage of these storms could
increase by Monday. Overall, expect periods of IFR/MVFR within
the showers and thunderstorms and also during potential early
morning fog due to increasing moisture at the ground.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Thursday
     afternoon for VAZ019-020.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Thursday
     afternoon for WVZ043-044-507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
133 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

VAZ019-020-WVZ042>044-507-508-231745-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
WESTERN GREENBRIER-
133 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A MORE
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA OR NOT, THUS THE
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING IS
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A LINE OF STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH A FEW OF THESE
STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ002>006-019-020-VAZ010>014-016>018-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-231745-
ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-BLAND-
GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-
ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
133 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A LINE OF STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...AND
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH A FEW OF THESE
STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001-018-VAZ007-009-015-231745-
ASHE-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-GRAYSON-
133 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST, BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND POTENTIAL FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A LINE OF STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...AND
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH A FEW OF THESE
STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
148 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

WVZ042>044-507-508-221815-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-SUMMERS-WESTERN GREENBRIER-MERCER-MONROE-
148 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
SUMMERS...SOUTHWESTERN GREENBRIER...NORTHEASTERN MERCER AND
NORTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 147 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR PINEY VIEW TO NEAR SHADY SPRING TO NEAR COAL
CITY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HINTON...
ALDERSON...
SANDSTONE...
PIPESTEM...
AND ELLISON.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3782 8060 3758 8062 3746 8095 3757 8120
      3760 8114 3759 8109 3761 8106 3764 8107
      3769 8098 3772 8097 3770 8091 3767 8090
      3768 8088 3773 8090 3774 8092 3777 8089
      3782 8094 3787 8081
TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 292DEG 42KT 3787 8103 3772 8105 3764 8129

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
209 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

VAZ011-018-019-WVZ043-044-507-508-221845-
CRAIG-ALLEGHANY-GILES-EASTERN GREENBRIER-SUMMERS-WESTERN
GREENBRIER-MONROE-
209 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
WESTERN CRAIG...NORTHEASTERN GILES...SOUTHWESTERN ALLEGHANY...EASTERN
SUMMERS...SOUTHWESTERN GREENBRIER AND MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 209 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR ALDERSON TO NEAR WAYSIDE TO INDIAN MILLS...AND
MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RONCEVERTE...
ALDERSON...
UNION...
PAINT BANK...
AND SINKING CREEK.

THIS INCLUDES THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE FAIRGROUNDS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3771 8019 3750 8017 3735 8038 3752 8091
      3764 8075 3785 8073
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 288DEG 49KT 3778 8069 3763 8068 3752 8083

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
241 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

VAZ018-019-022-023-221915-
CRAIG-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ALLEGHANY-
241 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
CRAIG...CITY OF SALEM...NORTHERN ROANOKE...CITY OF ROANOKE...
BOTETOURT AND SOUTHWESTERN ALLEGHANY COUNTIES...

AT 241 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR ALLEGHANY TO NEAR NEW CASTLE TO SIMMONSVILLE...
AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROANOKE...
SALEM...
ALLEGHANY...
VINTON...
AND BUCHANAN.

THIS INCLUDES THE SALEM FAIRGROUNDS AND ROANOKE REGIONAL AIRPORT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3768 7975 3747 7969 3742 7976 3740 7981
      3738 7977 3736 7979 3725 7995 3733 8026
      3734 8027 3737 8033 3735 8035 3738 8046
      3757 8021 3772 8026 3775 8026 3778 8022
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 286DEG 48KT 3774 8019 3755 8013 3737 8039

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
356 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

NCZ005-VAZ043-044-222030-
ROCKINGHAM-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
356 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN ROCKINGHAM...SOUTHWESTERN PITTSYLVANIA...SOUTHEASTERN
HENRY AND WESTERN CITY OF DANVILLE COUNTIES...

AT 356 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SWANSONVILLE TO AXTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DANVILLE...
AXTON...
BLAIRS...
MAYFIELD...
AND SWANSONVILLE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3666 7978 3678 7963 3667 7929 3654 7946
      3654 7951 3649 7952 3642 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 304DEG 27KT 3674 7961 3666 7972

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
432 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             3 NE CASCADE            36.60N 79.63W
06/22/2016  E0.88 INCH       PITTSYLVANIA       VA   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL TO THE NORTHEAST OF CASCADE...REPORTED
            WITH A PHOTO FROM FACEBOOK.

&&

PW