Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
351 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front moves from west to east this evening into tonight with
showers and storms. Precipitation lingers Friday, possibly into
Saturday. Moisture starved cold front Sunday Night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Surface boundary beginning to move again after being stalled
across Central Ohio for most of the morning. This is due to a
surface low making its way into Central Kentucky early this
afternoon. West of this front, have dense cloud cover and fairly
widespread rain. East of the front, a cumulus deck has been
developing along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Thus,
the main feature to track through the tonight is the boundary as
it slides east.

This afternoon, with most of the CWA ahead of the front, we will
see showers and thunderstorms moving through. Used a blend of near
term, hi-res guidance to formulate POPs...with an area of likely
POPs crossing CWA through this evening. Clouds have limited
instability some, but combined with decent shear we should still
have enough instability to drive some stronger cells capable of
gusty winds. Still not real excited about these reaching severe
limits, but cannot rule out and isolated bowing segment with
damaging winds threat.

Tonight, as the front continues east, we will se more widespread
precipitation and clouds quickly lowering. Have large area of 100
POPs just behind the front, lingering into the early morning
hours. In general, looking at a 1-2" rainfall event providing some
relief to the parched ground.

Expect a slow recovery on Friday, with low stratus and
light rain/drizzle/fog lingering through much of the morning. This
will limit diurnal heating, so have fairly flat temps -- and even
non-diurnal at higher elevations of the northern mountains as
850mb temps continue to fall through the day. Afternoon highs will
be significantly cooler than today, with most locations staying in
the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Thursday...

High pressure at the surface and aloft will build over the area
from the west Friday night and Saturday, as the upper trough and
associated surface low/cold front move out. Rain showers also
taper off from west to east Friday night in the low lands, and in
the mountains Saturday morning as drier air works in. Pressure
gradient between the surface low and high pressure will be tight
over our area through Saturday, so the strong cold air advection
and blustery northwest flow will bring temperatures down to well
below normal Friday night through Saturday. Gusty winds Friday
night and Saturday with temperatures in the 50s for highs Saturday
will make it seem much colder, and some wind gusts in the higher
elevations of the northern mountains may exceed 40 mph. Enough
cold air will get into the northern mountains to change rain
showers to snow showers later Friday night and Saturday morning,
but with little accumulation. Sunday will already begin a rebound
under high pressure and plenty of sunshine to boost temperatures
back into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 PM Thursday...

High pressure at the surface and aloft will be the dominating
feature through Wednesday, except for a weak and moisture starved
front dropping across the area late Sunday night and Monday
morning. Except for a sprinkle in the northern mountains with the
front, dry weather and near normal temperatures can be expected.
Thursday will see another system approaching from the west, but
with warm temperatures preceding it.

Thing

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Thursday...

Messy TAF period ahead as a cold front moves through the forecast
area. Ahead of the cold front, have a VFR cumulus deck forming
with some showers and thunderstorms expected. Did include some
MVFR tempos in thunderstorms, using HRRR for timing. Could even
get brief IFR.

As the cold front passes tonight, more widespread rain is expected
as well as a low stratus deck moving in. This leads to IFR to LIFR
conditions once the front passes...lingering well into Friday
morning. Winds are generally southwesterly this afternoon outside
of any thunderstorms, and will shift to northwesterly behind the
front.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR possible in thunderstorms into tonight.
Timing of frontal passage and drop into IFR rain/stratus may
very...as well as timing of recovery Friday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR may linger in low stratus in the mountains into Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1032 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2016

OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085-WVZ009>011-211445-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-VINTON-MEIGS-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-
1032 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083-086-087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-
211445-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-JACKSON OH-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-
KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-
BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
1032 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS...WITH A LOWER SECONDARY
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ046-047-211445-
POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
1032 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS...WITH A LOWER SECONDARY THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
616 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE CHARLESTON         38.32N  81.59W
10/20/2016                   KANAWHA            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            PER 911 CENTER... TREE DOWN AT 44TH AND VENABLE AVE IN
            KANAWHA CITY. RADAR ESTIMATED TIME.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601330

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARIETTA                39.42N  81.45W
10/20/2016                   WASHINGTON         OH   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE ON VEHICLE. 300 BLOCK FRONT STREET VIA
            FACEBOOK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601331

26

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
622 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016

WVZ015>020-027>030-037-202300-
CLAY-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-BRAXTON-NICHOLAS-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-DODDRIDGE-
LEWIS-GILMER-
622 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN ROANE...
SOUTHEASTERN RITCHIE...EAST CENTRAL WIRT...SOUTHERN DODDRIDGE...NORTH
CENTRAL NICHOLAS...CALHOUN...CLAY...NORTHWESTERN LEWIS...GILMER...
BRAXTON AND EAST CENTRAL KANAWHA COUNTIES...

AT 622 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF GRANTSVILLE TO BIG OTTER
TO 7 MILES NORTH OF SMITHERS. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GLENVILLE...SUTTON...GRANTSVILLE...CLAY...GASSAWAY...GLEN...
ARNOLDSBURG...BIRCH RIVER...WALLBACK...BIG OTTER...CEDAR CREEK STATE
PARK...HARRISON...BURNSVILLE...FLATWOODS...SAND FORK...AUBURN...COXS
MILLS...BICKMORE...WILSIE AND CHLOE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 29 AND 86.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3927 8061 3877 8053 3838 8077 3831 8138
      3863 8120 3906 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 245DEG 34KT 3906 8115 3861 8108 3828 8128

COOPER