Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
238 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Diurnal heating and abundant moisture will combine to produce
showers and storms today. Approaching cold front will move through
the forecast area Wednesday, followed by another over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 155 PM Tuesday...
Cold front crosses the area overnight tonight. Convection in the
warm sector already occurring aided by the diurnal heating.
Tonight though, there will be some deep layered shear of around 35
knots that could keep pcpn activity going along the front.

Any organized storm can produce heavy rain along their path. Minor
water problems could happen.
An h500 short wave will enhance PCPN activity Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

The front will remain in the vicinity...draped across the
Southern Forecast area on Thursday. Have kept the greatest, likely PoPs
across our Southern zones.

Used the super blend guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 pm Tuesday...
Cold front and upper level short wave support will continue to
move slowly through the region on Wednesday night and exit on
Thursday. This will keep a chance of scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast into Thursday morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will end from west to east Thursday...as the front
slowly exits the area by Thursday evening and stalls just south of
the region. Somewhat cooler and drier air This will keep the area
dry...at least through much of Friday and Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 pm Tuesday...

Models remain in good agreement on a stronger upper level short
wave trough pushing a stronger cold front through the area Sunday.
The front stalled to our south will lift northward on Saturday.
Plainty of moisture out ahead of this system will increase the
chances of showers and thunderstorms. Sunday the front pushes
through and exits on Monday. Cooler and drier air works into the
area late Monday night into Tuesday...as high pressure builds in
across the region. Pretty much stuck with a blend of guidance
temps throughout.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday...
A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight increasing
chance for showers and storms. The front should be along the OH
river by 06Z Wednesday, exiting the area by 12Z Wednesday morning.

VFR conditions will prevail at most sites through the period. The
exceptions will be if a site gets hit by a heavy showers or
storms which can produce brief IFR conditions this afternoon and
evening. Coded VCTS at most sites during the same time frame.

Abundant clouds are expected ahead of the front, perhaps to
prevent dense fog formation overnight. However, areas that receive
rainfall today will be more prom to fog tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Enough wind and cloud cover may remain
across the area tonight to prevent fog formation across most of
the area.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR conditions in sct showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
330 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-170730-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
330 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND MAY CAUSE WIND DAMAGE AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
519 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

OHZ067-075-084-162215-
VINTON-MORGAN-ATHENS-
519 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN VINTON...MORGAN AND
NORTHWESTERN ATHENS COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM...

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NELSONVILLE...GLOUSTER...MCCONNELSVILLE...LAKE HOPE STATE PARK...
CHAUNCEY...MALTA...BUCHTEL...STOCKPORT...JACKSONVILLE...TRIMBLE...
BRISTOL...BURR OAK STATE PARK...HACKNEY AND THE PLAINS.

LAT...LON 3975 8164 3967 8164 3966 8159 3962 8159
      3959 8167 3959 8171 3957 8172 3928 8238
      3937 8243 3939 8239 3939 8229 3945 8228
      3947 8224 3947 8217 3951 8216 3955 8209
      3955 8204 3958 8204 3976 8171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 248DEG 41KT 3935 8231

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
542 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

KYZ105-WVZ005-006-013-162245-
LAWRENCE-CABELL-WAYNE-LINCOLN-
542 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LAWRENCE...CENTRAL
WAYNE...NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CABELL COUNTIES...

AT 541 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR YATESVILLE
LAKE STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOUISA...WAYNE...YATESVILLE LAKE STATE PARK...FORT GAY...
EAST LYNN LAKE...KIAHSVILLE...CENTERVILLE...RANGER...WEST HAMLIN...
BRANCHLAND...FALLSBURG...HOUCKVILLE...SALT ROCK...
GENOA AND EAST LYNN.

LAT...LON 3800 8280 3814 8288 3837 8218 3812 8210
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 240DEG 36KT 3811 8277

05

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