Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
341 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms into Friday as
upper shortwave trough pushes east. A cold front crosses late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes were necessary to the previous short term
forecast. Upper shortwave trough pushing east into the Mid
Atlantic region will create sct showers and isold thunderstorms
this afternoon...mainly across the western half of the CWA this
afternoon...before some waning in activity late tonight...and
refiring again on Friday as it continues to push east across the
region. Overall...flow still pretty light...and this combined with
the high moisture content of the air...will continue to see slow
moving storms with heavy rainfall. Friday...more sct convection is
anticipated...and will need to be vigilant for water
issues...particularly across the south and east. The southern coal
fields and southwest Virginia are highlighted in a mrgl risk for
excessive rainfall for Friday.

Tonight...as with last night...not expecting widespread fog
development as there may still be a little puff of wind here and
there...however...will continue to see lower ceilings along the
mountains in the southeasterly flow.

A cold front will approach...but still be well to the west of the
CWA at the end of the near term period...with increasing chances
for precipitation across the west late in the period/into the
short term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will push through late Friday night into Saturday.
Models showing upper level subsidence due to the location of the jet
stream...so not sure the front can generate a lot of precipitation
during the nighttime hours. Will continue with likely pops Saturday
afternoon along and south of the front due to daytime heating. High
temperatures on Saturday are especially tricky due to precipitation
and frontal clouds.

A high pressure system then builds in for Sunday...providing dry
weather throughout the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Used a mix of Euro and GFS operational models for Monday. Gradually
shifted to a blend of Euro and the ECENS mean. This would have high
pressure over the region for Monday. Moisture then begins to creep
back northward by Tuesday with deeper moisture arriving on southerly
flow and warm front for Wednesday. Warm front moves northward by
Thursday, putting us in the warm sector.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through late this
evening...creating brief mvfr/ifr conditions and brief gusty winds
in the upper teen to lower 20 kt range. Bulk of activity will die
off after 00Z...with patchy mvfr fog developing...particularly in
favored valleys. In addition...expecting mvfr cigs to develop
across the higher terrain again generally after 04Z... in the
southeasterly flow...particularly at sites such as kbkw.

Convection will refire again on Friday particularly after
15Z...and will be more sct in nature than today. Expecting brief
heavy downpours...and mvfr/ifr conditions in vcnty of storms.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and development of convection tonight
may vary from forecast. Fog tonight will depend somewhat on
evening rain and lingering clouds.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
   H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... Showers and thunderstorms through Saturday
evening could bring brief periods of IFR.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY/99
AVIATION...SL/DTC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
157 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-051800-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
157 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD CREATE
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD CREATE
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
426 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

OHZ076-042045-
WASHINGTON-
426 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

A NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWER WEST OF NEWPORT...WEST VIRGINIA HAS
ALREADY DROPPED AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 45 MINUTES AND COULD
DROP UP TO ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT HALF
HOUR. LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY MINOR FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 3939 8125 3941 8135 3951 8130 3949 8120
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 200DEG 3KT 3944 8130

KISTNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
623 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

KYZ105-042300-
LAWRENCE-
623 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LAWRENCE COUNTY...

AT 620 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM LOUISA TO NEAR BLAINE TO JEPTHA. MOVEMENT WAS
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE COULD DROP A QUICK INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF OF RAIN...WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOUISA...BLAINE...YATESVILLE LAKE STATE PARK...FORT GAY...MARTHA...
GALLUP...FALLSBURG AND HOUCKVILLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

LAT...LON 3800 8302 3804 8300 3805 8296 3809 8293
      3811 8289 3814 8291 3816 8285 3822 8260
      3817 8261 3817 8264 3814 8264 3811 8259
      3809 8259 3807 8255 3803 8252 3795 8281
      3800 8294 3800 8296 3796 8299 3797 8302
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 147DEG 8KT 3808 8260 3804 8279 3794 8307

KISTNER