Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
330 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak disturbances drop southeast into Saturday. Front stalls in
Upper Ohio Valley Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Latest radar mosaic shows showers/storms were moving/developing
southeast across our southeast Ohio...Northeast Kentucky and along
the Ohio River in West Virginia. These storms appear to be the
result of an upper level disturbance which is moving toward the
area.

This feature is expected to generally remain west of our forecast
area. However... models suggest these storms could continue to
mainly impact our western counties into the late evening hours.

Precipitable water values top 2 inches along and west of the Ohio
River, indicating downpours are also possible in any
thunderstorms.

Did not make any major changes for the overnight period. While
most of the storms should dissipate before midnight...an isolated
storm or two could continue during the overnight hours.

Saturday could be the hottest day of the year so far. Latest temp
guidance is warmer than our previous forecast for highs and have
tweaked our MaxT grid up a degree or two. Felt our forecasted
dewpoint temps may have been a little high...so have tweaked them
down.

Current thinking is that heat indices will top out between 100 and
105 Saturday afternoon across our western counties. Only fly in the
ointment would be debris clouds from overnight that may act to keep
daytime temps down.

Have issued a Heat Advisory for portions of southeast Ohio...
northeast Kentucky and the western counties of West Virginia.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Models have backed off a bit from any debris clouds to contend
with on Sunday. Not fully sold on this and continued with some low
pops but allowed for temps similar to Saturday with the potential
for another heat advisory issuance.

A weak cold front along with an elongating s/w trof will approach
on Monday with convection chances increasing across the area. As
this features approach...the upper ridge will flatten as the
overall pattern turns more zonal with generally weak flow through
the atmosphere. As such expect the unsettled wx to continue
overnight until waning some late. Torrential downpours with the
potential for a bit of training will have to be monitored for
localized flooding concerns but it would take over 2 inches in an
hour to cause issues.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
With the front meandering thru at least the S zones Tuesday...have
kept some higher pops for the afternoon and evening hours. The
front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday with mid level
drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon shra/tsra chances
confined over S WV/SW VA in the better moisture. This front
dissolves on Thursday as the next s/w trof and surface low
approach with another uptick in shra/tsra coverage during the
afternoon and lingering into Friday across the mountains.

Temps will gradually ease back closer to normal levels
midweek...likely ending the heat wave over portions of the area
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
Latest radar mosaic continues to indicate scattered showers and
storms with MVFR...local IFR...conditions were pushing across
southeast Ohio. Outside of the area...vfr conditions prevailed.

An upper level disturbance will push southeast into the nighttime
hours. As a result...the storms should continue to move/develop
southeast during the afternoon hours. The best chance will
be along and west of the Ohio River, and have continued VCTS on
the PKB and HTS TAFs into the evening hours.

Models still fairly insistent on fog formation tonight, but think
there will be enough remnant clouds around to allow for dense fog
formation. Have generally gone with 6sm br between 08Z and 12Z
everywhere...with some 3-5sm br in favored river valleys...at
places like CRW/EKN.

VFR conditions are expected after 13Z...with isolated storms
possible after 15Z.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need to expand VCTS this afternoon and
evening. Dense river valley fog may form tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms late Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>029.
OH...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH/30
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JSH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
332 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

WVZ007-008-014-015-222000-
MASON-KANAWHA-JACKSON-PUTNAM-
332 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM...EAST
CENTRAL MASON AND SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 332 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF RIPLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RIPLEY...KENNA...FAIRPLAIN...EVANS...LIBERTY...KENTUCK...
GIVEN AND STATTS MILLS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 77 IN WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 120
AND 138.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3875 8153 3871 8154 3852 8171 3872 8197
      3887 8183
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 306DEG 13KT 3875 8182

12