Alert archive / Ohio / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

July 15, 2016Morgan County, Ohio

NWS Charleston, WV issued this special weather statement at Jul 15, 2016, 4:49 PM EDT for Morgan County, Ohio. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 15, 2016, 4:49 PM EDT (20:49 UTC)
Expired: Jul 15, 2016, 5:30 PM EDT
In force: 41 min
Issued by: NWS Charleston, WV

County Morgan County, OH

The radar

The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 157 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 565 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -55 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 824 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 33 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 36 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 15, 3:00 PM EDT, 1 hour 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 3:00 PM EDT, 1 hour 49 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
300 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weakening cold front tonight into Saturday. High pressure
Saturday night into Sunday night. Trough aloft/cold front Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Latest satellite imagery and surface observations indicates that
the stratus is slowly lifting and dissipating. In addition...radar
mosaic indicates some light showers/sprinkles continue across the
mountain counties...while a few showers have begun to develop
across Ohio...just west of our forecast area.

The showers to our west were developing along a weak cold front
which is pushing east. There is quite a gradient in low-level
moisture along this boundary as well. Dewpoint temperatures were
generally near 70 across southeast Ohio...east of the boundary...
with values quickly dropping off into the 60s and even 50s behind
it.

the front and associated showers/storms should push across the
area through tonight. Expect the stratus will continue to
dissipate today. However...stratus could reform again tonight.

Cold front should be located near or just southeast of our
mountain counties early Saturday...with drier and somewhat cooler
air filtering in. However...combination of daytime heating and
remaining low-level moisture could result in the development of
showers and storms...mainly across the mountain counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Aside form lingering activity in the southern mountain areas
Saturday night...the short term forecast brings another short lived
drying period for the Middle Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians.
Lose the bulk of the moisture above around 800mb during this time
frame. Awaiting the arrival of the next cold front beyond Monday.
Temperatures will slowly creep upwards as temperatures hover around
the 20C mark each day...but the saturated ground will keep
temperatures in the upper 80s for the lowlands. A bigger story may
be the dewpoints Sunday which should not get higher than the lower
60s for the bulk of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Seeing an overall trend of drying out beyond the Cold front/trough
axis aloft in the Monday night/Tuesday front end of the long term
forecast period. Largely a dry forecast beyond with the
amplification of the upper level ridge building over the Southern
Plains. Expecting a heat wave over that part of the country that
will eventually leak its way over into the Ohio Valley with 500mb
heights in the 594dkm range...but this should be a slowly evolving
scenario. No out of the ordinary heat in the forecast for our area
as of yet. ECMWF hints at the ridge retrograding westward beyond day
7.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Status has been slow to lift and dissipate. However...expect vfr
conditions should prevail by 20Z across the entire area.

Isold showers and thunderstorms will develop again...particularly
after 20Z...with brief mvfr/ifr conditions as a cold front
approaches the region. After 03Z...widespread mvfr/isold ifr cigs
and vsbys expected to develop again.

After 13Z...conditions should improve with VFR conditions expected
across most of the region.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development of low ceilings and fog tonight
uncertain.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR fog possible Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JSH

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 15, 4:26 AM EDT, 12 hours 23 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
426 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-160830-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
426 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 15, 4:39 PM EDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
439 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HAIL             3 N REINERSVILLE        39.73N  81.65W
07/15/2016  E1.50 INCH       MORGAN             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL
            AND CRACKED WINDSHIELD JUST WEST OF THE NOBLE-MORGAN
            COUNTY LINE ON ROUTE 78.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601258

MAC

Local storm report, Jul 15, 4:42 PM EDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
442 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N REINERSVILLE        39.73N  81.66W
07/15/2016                   MORGAN             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 78 JUST WEST OF THE NOBLE-MORGAN
            COUNTY LINE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601259

MAC

Special weather statement, Jul 15, 4:49 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
449 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

OHZ066-067-152130-
MORGAN-PERRY-
449 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTY...

AT 448 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF
MCCONNELSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCCONNELSVILLE...MALTA AND EAGLEPORT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3976 8183 3976 8180 3960 8181 3964 8210
      3971 8211 3975 8186
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 275DEG 17KT 3968 8201

08

The office that day

Everything else NWS Charleston, WV issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 15, 6:06 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Tyler	54 min
Jul 15, 6:43 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Pleasants	62 min
Jul 15, 6:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RLX	Ritchie, Wirt, Wood	41 min
Jul 15, 7:23 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Wirt	52 min
Jul 15, 7:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RLX	Jackson, Mason, Putnam	38 min
Jul 14, 8:30 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Athens, Jackson, Meigs, Vinton	45 min
Jul 15, 4:37 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RLX	Morgan	23 min
Jul 15, 5:25 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RLX	Athens, Vinton	65 min
Jul 15, 6:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RLX	Athens, Washington	52 min
Jul 15, 6:50 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Meigs	55 min
Jul 15, 6:56 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Gallia, Jackson	64 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Ohio, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.