Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
259 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm complex exiting by evening. Cold front crosses
tonight. Drier air arrives Saturday ahead of high pressure for
Sunday. Warmer and more humid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A thunderstorm complex moving east along a weak surface boundary,
was beginning to fade from the north, but a west to east line of
new thunderstorms was quickly firing up across central Kentucky,
in the heat of the day along a new outflow boundary laid out by
the original complex. So southern portions of the forecast area
experiencing showers and thunderstorms this afternoon prompted the
issuance of severe thunderstorm and flash flood watches, with some
warnings and verification already on severe winds.

A cold front will bring another opportunity for showers and
thunderstorms as it crosses late tonight, but, with loss of
heating, an atmosphere that is worked over across the south and a
little heating across northeast WV should limit coverage and
intensity. The best chance for a strong storm tonight would be
the middle Ohio valley where there was better surface heating,
but, while the atmosphere may not quite be worked over, the cloud
shield from the thunderstorm complex was negating much of that
heating.

Fog is most likely to form across southern WV in the wake of the
front tonight, where the thunderstorm complex was rolling across
today. Saturday will be a well mixed day in the wake of the front,
so the morning stratocu will mix out quicker compared with today
and recent days. Almost like winter time, cumulus will be most
prevalent and towering in the wrap around moisture across the
north, and cannot rule out a sprinkle or brief shower there,
while the column is dry enough for a mostly sunny afternoon
across the south.

Not much change to temperatures with a warm night given a late
night frontal passage in July, and highs Saturday were right on
the blends and accepted in the well mixed atmosphere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure crosses the area Saturday night and Sunday with cooler
and drier weather. That regime does not linger long however, as
moisture begins to increase again Monday. A nearly stationary
boundary stays to our south through the period...but all models
showing some sort of an upper level disturbance Monday or Monday
night, so have increased POPs to account for this. Did not go to
drastic with it as this has been an area of uncertainty in the
models recently. But did increase to chance POPs along and south
of the I-64 corridor until the overall evolution of things becomes
more clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front lifts north across the forecast area on Tuesday, which
brings the warm and humid weather back. The GFS tries to slide a
cold front through midweek, while the ECMWF is more diffuse with the
boundary remaining mostly to the north. In the rather typical summer
pattern with no significant synoptic features, kept POPs mainly diurnal
in nature...maxing out during the afternoon with a min overnight.
Have high temperatures pushing 90 degrees by midweek across the
lowlands. Dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s should support
some heavy rain potential, and relatively weak storm level flow
could lead to slow storm movement. With the usually more isolated
threat from mid-summer diurnal convection, will not include in the
HWO just yet since there is still some time to wait for finer
details to resolve.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thunderstorm complex moving into southern WV will impact HTS with
strong wind gusts and IFR conditions likely first hour 18Z to
19Z, CRW 19z to 20z with less confidence on wind gusts and IFR,
and then lastly BKW with less confidence based un uncertainty of
whether and how quickly the thunderstorms might weaken given
little heating that far east.

These storms will be followed by some MVFR conditions later this
afternoon, and fog is more likely tonight on account of the rain
there this afternoon.

Farther north, mainly VFR conditions into tonight with less
coverage and therefore less confidence on a thunderstorm impacting
PKB, CKB or EKN.

A cold front crossing the area tonight will bring one last chance
for a shower or thunderstorm, followed by fog especially south but
also wherever a thunderstorm does occur north. MVFR stratocu will
likely form again toward Saturday morning but will mix out by late
morning, earlier than the past few days, as drier air works into
the area behind the front.

Southwest surface flow will be southwest, with strong gusts in
thunderstorms mainly southern WV this afternoon. Winds will
diminish tonight and then freshen a bit from the west on
Saturday. Light west flow aloft this afternoon will become light
northwest tonight and then light west again on Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Impact of thunderstorm complex rolling
across southern WV this afternoon may vary. Occurrence of showers
and thunderstorm ahead of a cold front tonight, and then fog and
low clouds in its wake into Saturday morning, may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ005-006-
     013>015-024>027-033>037.
OH...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ102-103-
     105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1123 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085-WVZ007>011-016>020-028>032-038>040-046-
047-091530-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-VINTON-MEIGS-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-BRAXTON-GILMER-
LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
1123 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BRIEF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN HAZARD.

IN THE FASTER WIND FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE RAIN
WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PARALLEL TO THAT FLOW...TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS. IF SO...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR ON SMALL
STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>037-091530-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-MINGO-LOGAN-
BOONE-CLAY-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-
1123 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BRIEF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ101-OHZ083-086-087-091530-
GREENUP-JACKSON OH-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-
1123 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

IN THE FASTER WIND FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE RAIN
WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PARALLEL TO THAT FLOW...TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS. IF SO...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR ON SMALL
STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ102-103-105-091530-
CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-
1123 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
211 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

KYZ105-WVZ005-013-024-025-081900-
LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MINGO-WAYNE-LINCOLN-
211 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
LAWRENCE...NORTHWESTERN MINGO AND SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES...

AT 211 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE CLUSTERED NEAR JOB...OR 8
MILES NORTH OF INEZ...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHARLEY...HARTS...DUNLOW...ULYSSES...HODE...KERMIT...LENORE...
GALLUP...GLENHAYES...CLIFFORD...WILSONDALE...CRUM...DINGESS...
MYRTLE AND BREEDEN.

THIS INCLUDES ROUTE 119 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 7 AND 14.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR WESTERN...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 3807 8269 3808 8211 3775 8217 3783 8240
      3785 8242 3786 8242 3787 8241 3788 8242
      3791 8247 3790 8247 3792 8248 3793 8250
      3795 8250 3796 8253 3795 8258 3793 8258
      3792 8260 3789 8260 3796 8282
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 274DEG 34KT 3798 8259

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
216 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FLATWOODS               38.52N  82.72W
07/08/2016                   GREENUP            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE FELL THROUGH A HOUSE PER 911 DISPATCH.
            ADDITIONALLY...TREES AND POWERLINES HAVE BEEN REPORTED
            DOWN ACROSS ROADS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601211

COOPER

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