Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
836 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of storms tonight. Cold front moves through
Thursday afternoon and evening causing strong storms. Drier air
Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Forecast is on track. The line of storms the NAM progged earlier
developed and is being fueled by instability and an upper level
vort max/sw. The line should track se through our cwa, so have
upped pops and qpf accordingly. Most reports coming out of the
more unstable air in Ohio have been sub-severe, however, still
think there is a marginal threat for wind/hail particularly the
kind that warrant strongly worded SPS's.

Previous discussion largely unchanged...
After this feature moves E late tonight expect a lull lasting
thru midday. Attention turns to advancing upper trof and closed
low out of the Great Lakes into E OH/N WV tomorrow afternoon. With
ample heating expecting ahead of this feature...instability should
be quite high. Interrogating the modeled environment reveals some
conditions favorable for MCS development with damaging wind gust
potential over N WV. Theta E feed on the NE side of low pressure
in conjunction with relatively higher llvl storm relative flow
compared to mid lvls are some key indicators of such a complex
forming. SPC continues to highlight this region for primarily a
damaging wind threat...though N WV may be more in the genesis area
of any complex compared to areas further E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models continue to drive the upper low and attending cold front
southeast across the area Thursday night...with showers and
storms continuing. The most widespread and heaviest rains will be
over northeastern counties of West Virginia. Will have to watch
for potential water problems Thursday night with the high moisture
content available...especially over northeast West Virginia.
Showers will quickly end from northwest to southeast on Friday as
the upper low exits. This will allow high pressure with somewhat
cooler and much drier air to overspread the area by mid afternoon
Friday.

Look for high pressure to prevail with near normal temperatures
and less humidity for Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Went with WPC Guidance with some tweaks. The period will begin
with high pressure in control. This feature will weaken and push
southeast...allowing a cold front to move into the region late.

WPC guidance looked a little cool for highs...so tweaked upwards a
degree or so each day.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions at all sites this evening. Developing convection to
the west will move towards the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms may
result in MVFR or perhaps brief IFR conditions in HTS/CRW/PKB
this evening...and in CKB/EKN/BKW after midnight. Not expecting
too much in the way of fog after convection due to lingering cloud
cover...perhaps some MFVR conditions before sunrise. Clearing in
the morning on Thursday before Thunderstorms with possible
MVFR/IFR return in the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of thunderstorm arrival may vary. IFR Fog
may develop if skies clear earlier than expected. Strong
thunderstorms possible on Thursday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 06/16/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in storms Thursday evening.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...JW/30
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JW/MAC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
346 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>007-009>011-162000-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-
346 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS...CAUSING
POOR DRAINAGE AND STREET FLOODING. IF REPETITIVE STORMS
OCCUR...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...CAUSING POOR DRAINAGE AND
STREET FLOODING. IF REPETITIVE STORMS OCCUR...LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ003-004-WVZ008-013>020-024>040-046-047-162000-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-JACKSON WV-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-
CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-
LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-
WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
346 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP...CAUSING POOR DRAINAGE AND STREET FLOODING. IF
REPETITIVE STORMS OCCUR...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP...CAUSING POOR DRAINAGE AND STREET FLOODING. IF
REPETITIVE STORMS OCCUR...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
534 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE HARTS              38.05N  82.11W
06/15/2016                   LINCOLN            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES DOWN ON SAND CREEK ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1600995

MAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
537 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LESTER                  37.74N  81.30W
06/15/2016                   RALEIGH            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON GRANDERSON STREET IN LESTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1600996

MAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
541 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     FLOOD            3 SW GILBERT            37.58N  81.91W
06/15/2016                   MINGO              WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GILBERT CREEK ROAD IN GILBERT CREEK PARTIALLY BLOCKED
            DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1600997

MAC

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
952 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

OHZ075-084-160215-
VINTON-ATHENS-
952 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN VINTON AND
WEST CENTRAL ATHENS COUNTIES...

AT 951 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LOGAN TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF HOCKING
HILLS STATE PARK. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE HOPE STATE PARK...NELSONVILLE...CHAUNCEY...ZALESKI...
CREOLA AND THE PLAINS.

LAT...LON 3945 8201 3919 8239 3937 8260 3937 8252
      3940 8251 3939 8229 3946 8228
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 316DEG 19KT 3946 8235 3934 8254

25