Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
738 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND
ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR FEW STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE THREAT WILL
START TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH LOW FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WE WILL NEED
TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ON THAT AREA IF ANY CELLS WERE TO START
BACK BUILDING.

620 PM UPDATE...MCS IS ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY AND I HAVE
INCREASED POP ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS INCREASED
THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. CURRENTLY THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
BORDERLINE SEVERE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL OCCUR. WITH THE SUN GOING DOWN WE EXPECT STORMS TO
WEAKEN A BIT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING DECENT
INSTABILITY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH CAPE VALUES OF 500 - 1000 J/KG
AND WITH ARRIVAL OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING OUR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES JUMP TO ABOUT 7C/KM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

5 PM UPDATE...INCREASED POP AND ADDED MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RATHER COMPLICATED PATTERN LASTS INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SHALLOW WARM FRONT ACROSS WV AND KY...ALIGNED
MORE OR LESS IN AN EAST- WEST FASHION. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER KY
IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG FRONT AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS AREA
FOR PRECIP AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. COULD SEE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF
KY...TRACKING INTO WV LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE A MODEST
ADJUSTMENT TO POPS...TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO BE BE
LATCHING INTO THIS IDEA. CARRIED THUNDER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
GRIDS AS WELL...WITH A BREAK EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND DIURNAL UPSWING
FOR WED. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT EXITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. GOOD WAA AND INSTABILITY INCREASES AS ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STORM FORMATION IS A GOOD BE OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXITS ON
FRIDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. SOILS ARE MOIST
TO WET AND SOME OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR WATER
PROBLEMS. THE ONLY GOOD THING MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
ALONG AND THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RAINFALL AFFECTS OVER THE AREA.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND STARTS TO BRIEFLY DRY US OUT.

GENERALLY KEPT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK PROGRESSION OF WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS
AS YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON TIMING AND POSITION OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL POSSIBLE...MORE LIKELY SEVERE STORMS FOR HTS AND CRW THAN
OTHER LOCATIONS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE IFR OUT EVERYWHERE BUT FOR
PKB...WHERE A LINE OF STRONG STORMS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH IN THE
NEXT 2 HOURS. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO AMEND TAFS AS STORMS DEVELOP
UPSTREAM AND CONFIDENCE OF A DIRECT HIT ON THE SITE BECOMES HIGH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY VARY DEPENDING ON WHEN AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HIT.
COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IF CONVECTION BECOMES
MORE ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AND BEHIND THIS LINE IN THE STRATIFORM
COLD POOL.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/MPK
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...MPK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
957 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ007>011-016>020-027>032-036>040-046-
047-120200-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-
LAWRENCE OH-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-
RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
957 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>026-033>035-120200-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-
LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
957 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KISTNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
812 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             2 S WILLARD             38.19N  82.90W
05/10/2016  E0.70 INCH       CARTER             KY   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1600974

MEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
823 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

KYZ105-110100-
LAWRENCE-
823 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LAWRENCE COUNTY...

AT 822 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR BRUIN TO OPHIR...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLAINE...YATESVILLE LAKE STATE PARK...CHARLEY...ULYSSES...MARTHA...GALLUP...
FALLSBURG AND HOUCKVILLE.

LAT...LON 3800 8302 3804 8300 3805 8296 3809 8293
      3811 8289 3817 8292 3820 8266 3795 8256
      3795 8258 3793 8258 3792 8260 3789 8260
      3788 8262 3789 8267 3797 8283 3800 8294
      3800 8296 3796 8299 3797 8302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 271DEG 30KT 3815 8295 3791 8301

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
829 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL             2 E WILLARD             38.21N  82.86W
05/10/2016  M1.00 INCH       CARTER             KY   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1600975

MEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
847 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

KYZ102-103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005-006-013-024-025-110200-
BOYD-CARTER-LAWRENCE-LAWRENCE-CABELL-LOGAN-MINGO-WAYNE-LINCOLN-
847 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LAWRENCE...SOUTHERN BOYD...
WESTERN LINCOLN...WAYNE...NORTHWESTERN MINGO AND CENTRAL CABELL
COUNTIES...

AT 846 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER BURNAUGH...OR 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF YATESVILLE LAKE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUNTINGTON...LOUISA...WAYNE...CHESAPEAKE...PROCTORVILLE...BLAINE...BEECH
FORK STATE PARK...YATESVILLE LAKE STATE PARK...BARBOURSVILLE...CEREDO...
FORT GAY...DURBIN...ULYSSES...KIAHSVILLE...ONA...CENTERVILLE...RANGER...
CHARLEY...EAST LYNN LAKE AND MARTHA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 64 IN WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 3
AND 22.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

LAT...LON 3829 8281 3852 8223 3782 8210 3788 8242
      3791 8246 3790 8247 3792 8248 3793 8250
      3794 8249 3796 8253 3795 8258 3792 8260
      3800 8296
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 258DEG 11KT 3824 8261

13

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