Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
738 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND
ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR FEW STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE THREAT WILL
START TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH LOW FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WE WILL NEED
TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ON THAT AREA IF ANY CELLS WERE TO START
BACK BUILDING.

620 PM UPDATE...MCS IS ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY AND I HAVE
INCREASED POP ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS INCREASED
THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. CURRENTLY THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
BORDERLINE SEVERE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL OCCUR. WITH THE SUN GOING DOWN WE EXPECT STORMS TO
WEAKEN A BIT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING DECENT
INSTABILITY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH CAPE VALUES OF 500 - 1000 J/KG
AND WITH ARRIVAL OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING OUR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES JUMP TO ABOUT 7C/KM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

5 PM UPDATE...INCREASED POP AND ADDED MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RATHER COMPLICATED PATTERN LASTS INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SHALLOW WARM FRONT ACROSS WV AND KY...ALIGNED
MORE OR LESS IN AN EAST- WEST FASHION. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER KY
IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG FRONT AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS AREA
FOR PRECIP AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. COULD SEE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF
KY...TRACKING INTO WV LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE A MODEST
ADJUSTMENT TO POPS...TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO BE BE
LATCHING INTO THIS IDEA. CARRIED THUNDER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
GRIDS AS WELL...WITH A BREAK EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND DIURNAL UPSWING
FOR WED. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT EXITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. GOOD WAA AND INSTABILITY INCREASES AS ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STORM FORMATION IS A GOOD BE OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXITS ON
FRIDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. SOILS ARE MOIST
TO WET AND SOME OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR WATER
PROBLEMS. THE ONLY GOOD THING MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
ALONG AND THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RAINFALL AFFECTS OVER THE AREA.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND STARTS TO BRIEFLY DRY US OUT.

GENERALLY KEPT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK PROGRESSION OF WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS
AS YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON TIMING AND POSITION OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL POSSIBLE...MORE LIKELY SEVERE STORMS FOR HTS AND CRW THAN
OTHER LOCATIONS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE IFR OUT EVERYWHERE BUT FOR
PKB...WHERE A LINE OF STRONG STORMS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH IN THE
NEXT 2 HOURS. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO AMEND TAFS AS STORMS DEVELOP
UPSTREAM AND CONFIDENCE OF A DIRECT HIT ON THE SITE BECOMES HIGH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY VARY DEPENDING ON WHEN AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HIT.
COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IF CONVECTION BECOMES
MORE ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AND BEHIND THIS LINE IN THE STRATIFORM
COLD POOL.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/MPK
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...MPK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
516 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

OHZ075-083>085-102145-
VINTON-ATHENS-MEIGS-JACKSON-
516 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN JACKSON...
SOUTHEASTERN VINTON AND NORTHWESTERN MEIGS COUNTIES...

AT 515 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER WELLSTON...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WELLSTON...ALBANY...HAMDEN...WILKESVILLE...RADCLIFFE...SALEM CENTER...
CARPENTER...DYESVILLE AND DEXTER.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3910 8260 3919 8260 3930 8221 3901 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 269DEG 20KT 3914 8254

16

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
624 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

OHZ083-084-102300-
VINTON-JACKSON-
624 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT JACKSON AND VINTON
COUNTIES...

AT 623 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR LOGAN ELM VILLAGE TO 11 MILES EAST OF CHILLICOTHE
TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF LUCASVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSON...WELLSTON...MCARTHUR...LAKE HOPE STATE PARK...HAMDEN...COALTON...
ZALESKI...RADCLIFFE...CREOLA...PETERSBURG...MABEE...EAGLE MILLS...BYER AND
ALLENSVILLE.

LAT...LON 3917 8279 3917 8277 3937 8275 3937 8252
      3940 8251 3938 8229 3904 8234 3903 8237
      3904 8243 3901 8244 3889 8276 3894 8275
      3895 8280 3897 8281
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 246DEG 32KT 3953 8293 3929 8279 3897 8285

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
654 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

KYZ101-103-OHZ083-085>087-WVZ006-007-102330-
BOYD-GREENUP-LAWRENCE-GALLIA-MEIGS-JACKSON-MASON-CABELL-
654 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...
GALLIA...LAWRENCE...WESTERN MASON AND NORTHWESTERN CABELL COUNTIES...

AT 653 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR OAK HILL TO NEAR LAKE VESUVIUS TO NAPLES...AND
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND
MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUNTINGTON...ASHLAND...IRONTON...POINT PLEASANT...GALLIPOLIS...COAL GROVE...
POMEROY...OAK HILL...RIO GRANDE...CHESAPEAKE...PROCTORVILLE...RUTLAND...
LAKE VESUVIUS...BARBOURSVILLE...MASON...GALLIA...FLATWOODS...RUSSELL...
VERNON AND WATERLOO.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 64 IN WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 14
AND 17.

LAT...LON 3861 8269 3894 8265 3904 8243 3903 8232
      3904 8232 3904 8200 3864 8202 3840 8234
      3849 8284
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 265DEG 41KT 3892 8248 3861 8255 3844 8280

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
709 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

OHZ067-075-084-085-102345-
VINTON-MORGAN-ATHENS-MEIGS-
709 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN...
EASTERN VINTON...MEIGS AND ATHENS COUNTIES...

AT 709 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE HOPE STATE PARK TO 9 MILES WEST OF RUTLAND...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ATHENS...NELSONVILLE...POMEROY...GLOUSTER...ALBANY...RUTLAND...CHESTERHILL...
LAKE HOPE STATE PARK...CHESTER...CHAUNCEY...BUCHTEL...JACKSONVILLE...
MURRAY CITY...TRIMBLE...AMESVILLE...WILKESVILLE...STROUD RUN STATE PARK...
HARRISONVILLE...DARWIN AND DYESVILLE.

LAT...LON 3903 8187 3902 8232 3903 8233 3903 8236
      3939 8235 3939 8229 3947 8228 3947 8217
      3954 8216 3954 8185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 241DEG 37KT 3939 8231 3907 8230

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
752 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

KYZ102-103-105-110015-
BOYD-CARTER-LAWRENCE-
752 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...
SOUTHEASTERN CARTER AND SOUTHWESTERN BOYD COUNTIES...

AT 751 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER WEBBVILLE...OR NEAR
GRAYSON LAKE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DENTON...RUSH...WEBBVILLE...FALLSBURG...WILLARD AND HOUCKVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 64 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 181 AND
182.

LAT...LON 3839 8276 3817 8263 3810 8289 3811 8290
      3812 8289 3813 8291 3815 8291 3817 8292
      3817 8298 3819 8299 3820 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 252DEG 22KT 3819 8290

16