Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
235 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO AREA THIS EVENING. WARM/UNSTABLE AIR
IN ADVANCE. FRONT WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH
FRIDAY...PROVIDING FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1840Z...DECIDED TO GO WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER OUR WETTEST
COUNTIES FROM THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...IN CASE THE SAME SMALL BASIN
GET MORE THAN 1 HEAVIER CELL.

THE FFA IS CURRENT NOW...AND LINGERS INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN COUNTIES
MAY SEE JUST AS MUCH RAIN LATER...BUT MUCH DRIER SOILS OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.

REST OF DISCISSION FROM 1830Z...
AS OF 1830Z...CONTINUES TO BE AN EVOLVING PATTERN TO SAY THE
LEAST...BUT SO FAR...UNFOLDING ABOUT ON SCHEDULE...FROM OUR
MORNING DISCUSSION.

NEW DEVELOPMENT IS FORMING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO...IN THE
MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS.  QUESTION IS HOW...
QUICKLY IT SINKS SOUTH...SINCE STEERING FLOW STUBBORN TO VEER TO NW.
I MAY BE TOO FAST INCREASING POPS OVER SOUTHERN WV S OF CRW.

WILL MONITOR COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...FOR POSSIBLE SHORT
FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR WETTEST CORRIDOR IN THE PKB TO CKB
VCNTY. OF COURSE...SEVERE POSSIBLE TOO...CONSIDERING EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL 30 TO 35 THSD...WITH FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 11K TO 11.5 K. EXPECT
CELL MOVEMENT SHOULD BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

ALSO...THINKING SEPARATE AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT ITSELF.  SO OVERALL...SEVERAL
CLUSTERS.

CONTINUE TO INCLUDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...WHEN POPS ARE THE
HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THIS EVENING.

BASING OUR FORECAST ON FRONT REACHING NEAR PKB TO CKB AROUND 03Z
WEDNESDAY...AND REACHING EKN TO CRW TO HTS AROUND 09Z WEDNESDAY...
THEN STARTING TO RUN OUT OF GAS.  HAVE DRIZZLE IN THE LOW CLOUDS
NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WAS DRIER IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...FIGURING DEEPER MOISTURE DOES
NOT RETURN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON EXACT TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE
A SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS THE LOW IA/IL...THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT.
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A RELATIVE MINIMUM FOR POP/QPF OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO PA AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE POPS DRYING OUT FROM SW TO NE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS NE. USED A BLEND OF BIAS-
CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...ENDING UP A TOUCH WARMER ON THURSDAY.
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO GOING LOWS USING A CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND STARTING OUT DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP. INTRODUCED POPS FOR SATURDAY FROM SW TO NE WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY
WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE 18Z TO 21Z WITH MOST UNSTABLE AIR IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO.  QUESTIONS ARE HOW QUICKLY CONVECTION
SINKS SOUTH...SINCE STEERING FLOW DOES NOT VEER MUCH.

WILL HIGHLIGHT MOSTLY NORTH OF HTS TO CRW THROUGH 21Z WITH
CONVECTION...THEN TRY TO SINK FURTHER SOUTH 21Z TUESDAY TO 00Z
WEDNESDAY.  OF COURSE...CONDITIONS HIGHLY VARIABLE IN THE
CONVECTION...AND HARD TO REFLECT IN TAFS.

BASING OUR FORECAST ON FRONT REACHING NEAR PKB TO CKB AROUND 03Z
WEDNESDAY...AND REACHING EKN TO CRW TO HTS AROUND 09Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN STARTING TO RUN OUT OF GAS.  HAVE DRIZZLE IN THE
LOW CLOUDS NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THINKING THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH BKW...AND CRW QUESTIONABLE.  SO
LOWER CLOUDS MORE IN QUESTION...THE FURTHER SOUTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION MAY BE SLOWER MOVING SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ009>011-
     017>020-028>032-038>040-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JS/KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...KTB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
319 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

OHZ066-067-075-076-WVZ009>011-017>020-028>032-038>040-047-271930-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-WIRT-CALHOUN-
RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-WEBSTER-
UPSHUR-BARBOUR-RANDOLPH-
319 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>008-013>016-024>027-
033>037-046-271930-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-
LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-LINCOLN-
PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-POCAHONTAS-
319 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IF THE ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS BECOME REPETITIVE OVER THE SAME
AREA...FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR ON SMALL STREAMS. IF THIS THREAT
BECOME MORE APPARENT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE POSTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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