Alert archive / West Virginia / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

April 22, 2016Wayne County, West Virginia

NWS Charleston, WV issued this special weather statement at Apr 22, 2016, 5:47 PM EDT for Wayne County, West Virginia. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 22, 2016, 5:47 PM EDT (21:47 UTC)
Expired: Apr 22, 2016, 6:30 PM EDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Charleston, WV

County Wayne County, WV

The radar

The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Apr 22, 4:53 PM EDT, 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 22, 4:53 PM EDT, 54 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
453 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION...AS WE
SEE TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT AND LAPSE RATES INCREASING WE SHOULD
START TO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY STORMS THOUGH LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LIMITED CAPE
VALUES OF ABOUT 700 J/KG AND LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 26 TO
27K FEET...EVEN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR HAVE
NOT PENETRATED TO MUCH MORE THAN 30K FEET. HOWEVER...WITH FREEZING
LEVELS AT AROUND 9K FEET THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG GUSTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS QUITE LOW DUE TO LACK OF STRONG
FORCING AND UNFAVORABLE WIND SHEAR. MU CAPES OF 1000 J/KG ARE
ABOUT ALL THAT THESE STORMS CAN PLAY WITH. STORMS WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME MAY EVEN PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

AFTER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH INSTABILITY DECREASES AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY FORM A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK FOR A GLOOMY
START TO SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD...WITH DRY AIR...AND WARM DAYS
AND COOL NIGHTS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH AN EVEN WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
SHOWERS RETURN LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY COULD BECOME
STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS IT OSCILLATES BACK AND FORTH
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE FOLLOWING AFTERNOONS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SFC CAPE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CAPE FROM 1000-1800
J/KG. CONTINUED MENTIONING THUNDER WHERE THE GFS HAS CAPE GREATER
THAN 500 J/KG GIVEN GOOD DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE WEEK.

WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS TO THE WARM SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BLENDED
WPC AND SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
SHOW WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
AIR MASS. WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT IFR OUT OF TAFS
DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY IN TIMING SHOWER ACTIVITY. STRATUS DECK WILL
FORM AFTER DARK AND LIKELY BRING SOME LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS
TONIGHT. VSBYS MAY ALSO DROP. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SAT AFTN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH EARLY...BECOMING MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD VARY.
IFR CLOUD DECK MAY NOT FORM TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW/SL
NEAR TERM...JW/MPK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JW

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 22, 2:30 AM EDT, 15 hours 17 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
230 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

OHZ066-067-076-WVZ009>011-016>020-027>032-035>040-046-047-230630-
PERRY-MORGAN-WASHINGTON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-
RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
230 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ075-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>008-013>015-024>026-
033-034-230630-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-ATHENS-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-
GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-
LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
230 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 22, 3:30 PM EDT, 2 hours 17 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Apr 22, 4:43 PM EDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Apr 22, 5:19 PM EDT, 28 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Apr 22, 5:47 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Charleston, WV issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 22, 3:30 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Doddridge, Harrison, Ritchie	30 min
Apr 22, 6:53 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Putnam	52 min
Apr 22, 7:17 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Wood	58 min
Apr 22, 6:24 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Meigs	51 min
Apr 22, 4:43 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Boyd, Carter	47 min
Apr 22, 5:19 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Greenup	56 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in West Virginia, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.