Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
330 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE CROSSING INTO THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  DRIER AIR/LOWERING DEW POINTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT LOBE OVER CENTRAL KY. MODELS SHOW THIS
FEATURE GRADUALLY LOSING STEAM AS IT CROSSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. HAVE SOME UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPE LOOKS TO MAX OUT AT AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT IS A
FAIRLY SKINNY PROFILE. HOWEVER...COMBINE THAT WITH A FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 9000FT AGL...SOME SMALL HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN
ANY TALLER STORMS. FLOW IS NOT OVERLY STRONG... 35-40KTS AT 700MB
AND 500MB... BUT WE DO HAVE A WEAK INVERTED V AND POCKET OF DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER CELLS. BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY MARGINAL -- AROUND 35KTS -- SO EXPECT INDIVIDUAL CELLS TO BE
RATHER UNORGANIZED AND MAYBE PULSE-Y IN NATURE.

WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...HAVE AN AREA OF HIGH POPS TRANSITIONING
ACROSS CWA FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELIED FAIRLY
HEAVILY ON THE HI-RES NAM AND HRRR FOR TIMING OF THE HIGHEST POPS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE 1-1.2 IN...WHICH SHOULD NOT CREATE
ANY WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS. HAVE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTH. WITH MIDDLE ISLAND CREEK AND DUCK CREEK CONTINUING TO RUN
HIGH...AND A BULLSEYE OF LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...WILL LEAVE THE
FLOOD WATCH AS IS. PRECIP WILL BE COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER WITH NO COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO LOW STRATUS
AND SOME VALLEY FOG BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

USED A BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND ECMWF MOS FOR HIGHS WHICH
DID NOT RESULT IN ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. A MAV/MET BLEND
FOR LOWS TONIGHT TRENDED A TOUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS IN THE MIDWEST...IOWA AND ILLINOIS...NEAR 00Z
WEDNESDAY LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD MICHIGAN BY 06Z AND AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z WED. MEANWHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS ONLY FALL SLOWLY
HERE.

SO NOT IMPRESSED WITH SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT.  STILL
HAVE FRONT SWEEPING EAST. FIGURING REACHING TOWARD CRW AROUND 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN EXITING MOUNTAINS BY 15Z. DESPITE LACK OF
MID LEVEL SUPPORT...CONSIDERING AIR MASS WE ARE STILL IN...AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WILL STILL LEAVE SOME 20 TO 40 POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT.

WESTERLY FLOW OF LOWERING DEW POINTS AND FRESHER AIR ADVECTING OUR
WAY...DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN FAST FLOW SOUTH OF THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HAVE MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  COULD
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN COULD NOT GO MORE THAN 20 TO 40 POPS.

CONSIDERING 850 TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND PLUS 1 C...LOWERED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND EVEN MENTIONED A POSSIBILITY FOR THOSE POPS OF R-S-
AOA 4000 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET WX WILL GREET FOLKS ENDING THE WORK WEEK WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS. WE STILL ENVISION A PATTERN CHANGE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL ESTABLISH A MEAN EASTERN US TROF THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
AND MORE SPECIFICALLY IF A CONSOLIDATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
FORM ON SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...EXPECT SOME CHILLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TO THE WEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH. HAVE MVFR WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TIMED OUT TO EACH TAF SITE. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EVENTUALLY AMEND TO
ADD IFR TEMPOS AS THE STORMS APPROACH...BUT WITH CURRENT BROKEN
LINE FELT IT BETTER TO LEAVE IFR OUT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOW STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG. RELIED FAIRLY
HEAVILY ON A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM THIS MORNING...FOR TOMORROW
MORNING...AND PUT IFR FOG AT EKN. MAY NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO OTHER
SITES EVENTUALLY. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD BE SLOW TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED TEMPOS FOR IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.
TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ009>011-017-019-020-
     031-032-040.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-084.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MZ/30/26
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
934 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

OHZ066-067-075-076-084-WVZ009>011-017-019-020-031-032-040-151345-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-VINTON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-WIRT-
RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-HARRISON-TAYLOR-BARBOUR-
934 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083-085>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>008-013>016-018-
024>030-033>039-046-047-151345-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-JACKSON OH-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-
KANAWHA-ROANE-CALHOUN-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-
MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
934 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
409 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             WURTLAND                38.55N  82.77W
03/14/2016  E0.25 INCH       GREENUP            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZED HAIL ACCUMULATED ON DECK. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1600760

COOPER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
418 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

WVZ013-024>026-034-035-142115-
BOONE-LOGAN-MINGO-LINCOLN-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
418 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN...CENTRAL
BOONE...MINGO AND LOGAN COUNTIES...

AT 417 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WILLIAMSON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILLIAMSON...LOGAN...CHAPMANVILLE...MAN...DELBARTON...WHARTON...BALD KNOB...
HOLDEN...MALLORY...MOUNT GAY-SHAMROCK...GILL...CHIEF LOGAN STATE...
SPURLOCKVILLE...HARTS...RED JACKET...CHATTAROY...HINCH...VAN...BUSKIRK AND
AMHERSTDALE-ROBINETTE.

THIS INCLUDES ROUTE 119 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 50.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3756 8208 3756 8213 3759 8213 3762 8218
      3765 8218 3763 8219 3763 8221 3766 8224
      3768 8230 3770 8230 3774 8233 3776 8231
      3780 8236 3802 8220 3819 8212 3789 8151
      3754 8197 3753 8201 3755 8204 3753 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 216DEG 30KT 3769 8225

COOPER