Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
842 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS INTO
SATURDAY...AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX
SYSTEM COULD BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
830 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED POP FOR TIMING OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS. SNOWFALL WILL BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO GENERALLY WENT
WITH A WIDESPREAD AVERAGE OF UP TO A HALF INCH FOR THE
LOWLANDS...HOWEVER LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD DROP A QUICK
INCH IN SOME PLACES.

6 PM UPDATE... ARCTIC FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE
FRONT MOVES IN. SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE AND
A QUICK INCH OF SNOW IN THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE. PLANNING ON
HANDLING THE HEAVIER SQUALLS WITH SPSS AS THEY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT EAST BY
EVENING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
TRANSITION THE LIGHT SNOW TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN
     GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE ARCTIC FRONT DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A LINE OF WINDY SNOW
SQUALLS WITH THE FRONT...OTHERWISE...MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND LEAST IN THE WEST. ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
MOSTLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NO HEADLINES FOR SNOW...CANCELLED THE SW VA ADVISORY FOR
SNOW...BUT WIND CHILLS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
THIS PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TERMS OF
HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL...FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND THEIR FOOTHILLS. IT WILL BE NOTED IN THE ADVISORY
THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS MAY REACH
VALUES OF WARNING CRITERIA. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DIVE TONIGHT AND
RECOVER VERY LITTLE FOR SATURDAY...TRULY IN THE DEEP
FREEZE...MADE EVEN WORSE EVERYWHERE BY THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SO EVEN THOUGH WE DO NOT MEET WIND CHILL CRITERIA IN THE LOW
LANDS...APPARENT TEMPS WILL NOT BE MUCH ABOVE ZERO DURING
SATURDAY. BE PREPARED!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR BEGINS A SLOW RETREAT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING...AND
GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH AS THE FAR NE CORNER OF A WAVE LIFTS NORTH AS A
SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS LOW IS SLOW TO DEEPEN...BUT AS IT IS DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES
INTO OUR NEIGHBORHOOD THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON ITS TRACK AND
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION TYPES.  RIGHT NOW THE EURO KEEPS A SOLID
WARM WEDGE IN OVER US LENDING MORE TOWARDS A RAIN SOLUTION WHILE THE
GFS AND NAM TREND COLDER WHICH WOULD GIVE US A SNOW SOLUTION.
DEFINITELY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR ANY WATCHES AT THE MOMENT.

RIGHT NOW...CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE THREE WHICH FOLLOWS
CLOSELY TO THE WPC GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD GIVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT
THE ONSET ALMOST AREA WIDE BEFORE SWITCHING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS MAY HAVE A LOCAL MAXIMA IN
SNOW SINCE THE COLD AIR LINGERS A LITTLE WHILE LONGER WAITING FOR
THE WARM AIR TO ARRIVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING EARLY NEXT WEEK STORM...AND
THUS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. GFS AND NAM SEEMS TO BE
TRENDING COLDER/MORE EASTERLY WITH THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WARMER/MORE WESTERLY TRACK WITH THE
SYSTEM. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATH...OF COURSE...CREATES CONUNDRUMS
IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
MODEL...GOOD 40+KT LLJ WILL AID IN HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION. ONE THING THAT DOES LOOK FAIRLY CERTAIN...IS MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES SHOULD GET DECENT ACCUMULATIONS...WITH LOWLANDS LESS
CERTAIN...AS MAY TRANSITION TO A RAIN SNOW MIX OR EVEN ALL RAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST OHIO
ZONES ARE ALSO QUITE UNCERTAIN...AS DEPENDING ON THE PATH OF THE
SYSTEM...THERE MAY BE A SHARP GRADIENT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES COULD SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. IN
ADDITION...IF THE STORM TAKES A MORE WESTERLY TRACK...MAY EVEN SEE
PERIODS OF A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING PERIODS OF SLEET ACROSS THE AREA
PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT. SO ALL IN ALL...STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL START HIGHLIGHTING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION...ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS...WILL BE A HEAVY WET SNOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...EXPECTING QPF OF OVER AN
INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
THIS...PARTICULARLY IF QUITE A BIT OF IT FALLS AS RAIN...COULD LEAD
TO RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS...AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO STRONG
RISES ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND BRIEF IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE FRONT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. ALSO EXPECTING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35
KTS...WHICH WILL ALSO BREAK CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS AT SOME
TERMINALS. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS INTO SATURDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WILL BE SCATTERED SO
SOME TERMINALS MAY MISS HEAVIER SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS.
ALSO...THE TIMING OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE TAFS COULD BE SLIGHTLY
OFF...BUT TRIED TO TIME OUT THE CURRENT LINE AT EACH SITE BASED ON
THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW MAY LINGER
A BIT LONGER ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SAT
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO ALL LOCATIONS TOMORROW NIGHT.
OUR NEXT LARGE SYSTEM IS DUE TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ032-035>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...TRM/JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MPK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
337 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

WVZ032-035>040-046-047-132045-
TAYLOR-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
337 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH THE
PATH...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY.

IN ADDITION...WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
SYSTEM...AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND EVEN MAIN STEM RIVERS COULD
SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>031-033-034-132045-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
337 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH THE
PATH...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY.

IN ADDITION...WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
SYSTEM...AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND EVEN MAIN STEM RIVERS COULD
SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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