Freeze Watch 5, NWS Charleston, WV

Boyd County, KY, Carter County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Athens County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Perry County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Washington County, OH, Barbour County, WV, Boone County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, Mason County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV, Wyoming County, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
341 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO A MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
COLDER. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH ROUNDS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. VERY COLD SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...WITH GREATER
GUSTS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN LATER
THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH A RENEWED ROUND OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION SENDING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE THE
PREVIOUS FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING.
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN INTACT TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM MATERIALIZING FARTHER EAST INTO WEST
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY START TO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING SOME LEFTOVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A STRONG ROUND OF UPPER LIFT...ENHANCED BY A 140+ KNOT
JET SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES LATER FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS OF
UP TO HALF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WHILE
THE HIGHER BASED LOCALES IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A FEW INCHES.

ADDITIONALLY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SEND MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HAVE THUS HOISTED A FREEZE
WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA AS THIS SEASON/S FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS YET TO BEGIN
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE A COLD START TO THE WEEKEND WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C EARLY SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO TOUCH 40 IN MANY AREAS.  WE WILL
ALSO CONTEND WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY...WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET.
WE MAY NEED SOME SNOW ADVISORIES GIVEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW UP
AGAINST THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS
SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES UP RESIDENCE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEST VIRGINIA...SETTING UP THE COLDEST NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL OFF WELL INTO THE 20S (TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN).  A
FEW VALLEYS COULD ALSO SQUEEZE OUT SOME UPPER TEENS.  WE WILL LIKELY
NEED ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NO HEADLINES AT
THIS POINT AS WE ALREADY HAVE FREEZE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

A RETURN OF MUCH MILDER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE REGION.  HIGHS
BY MONDAY WILL LIKELY CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 70.  HOWEVER...AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST.  HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO
CATEGORICAL WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.  RAIN SHOULD EXIT BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FEATURING DRY
WEATHER. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
NEAR THURSDAY...AS ECMWF BRINGS PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT GFS
IS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH SOME
LOW POPS COMING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS OWING TO SHRA AHEAD OF A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE WITHIN 5 NAUTICAL MILES
OF ANY TAF SITE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION FOR NOW.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. SHRA
MAY ALLOW FOR HIGHER INTERMITTENT GUSTS.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM FURTHER
PREVAILING GROUPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LIFTING/MIXING OUT OF MVFR
CEILINGS.

SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE INSERTED IFR
CEILINGS FOR KEKN FROM 03-11Z AS SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY FLUCTUATE AS
-SHRA MOVE THROUGH...AND MAY IMPROVE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST BEFORE ARRIVAL OF REINFORCING COLD FRONT. MVFR CONDITIONS
MAY LINGER LONGER FRIDAY WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS RAIN AND SNOW
PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WEST VIRGINIA WHERE SNOW MAY BE HEAVIER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040.
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JCG
NEAR TERM...JCG
SHORT TERM...JCG
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JCG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
425 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016

VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-080830-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-
TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-
MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-
WYOMING-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
425 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH
OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOWLAND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 20S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT. FREEZE WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WVZ035>038-046-047-080830-
RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
425 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SNOW ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-080830-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-
425 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHEAST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WATCH.

IN ADDITION...LOWLAND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 20S ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. FREEZE WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.