Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS Charleston, WV

593 
WGUS61 KRLX 130121
FFARLX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
921 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013-024>026-033>035-
130930-
/O.CON.KRLX.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-160513T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-
WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLATWOODS...GREENUP...GRAYSON...
OLIVE HILL...ASHLAND...LOUISA...IRONTON...SOUTH POINT...
CLINTWOOD...GRUNDY...VANSANT...KENOVA...CEREDO...WAYNE...
HUNTINGTON...HARTS...ALUM CREEK...HAMLIN...WILLIAMSON...LOGAN...
CHAPMANVILLE...MAN...MADISON...WELCH...GARY...WAR...MULLENS...
OCEANA...PINEVILLE...BECKLEY
921 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST 
  VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS... 
  IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...BOYD...CARTER...GREENUP AND LAWRENCE 
  KY. IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...LAWRENCE OH. IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... 
  BUCHANAN AND DICKENSON. IN WEST VIRGINIA...BOONE...CABELL... 
  LINCOLN...LOGAN...MCDOWELL...MINGO...RALEIGH...WAYNE AND 
  WYOMING. 

* UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
  OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
  PRODUCE LOCALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR. GROUND
  CONDITIONS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE CONSIDERED MOIST TO WET.
  CURRENTLY IT WILL ONLY TAKE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN IN AN
  HOUR TO CAUSE FLOODING IN MOST AREAS.

* BEST CHANCES FOR FLOODING WILL BE ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND 
  CREEKS... LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

462 
WGUS61 KRLX 130700
FFARLX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013-024>026-033>035-
130800-
/O.CAN.KRLX.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-160513T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-
WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLATWOODS...GREENUP...GRAYSON...
OLIVE HILL...ASHLAND...LOUISA...IRONTON...SOUTH POINT...
CLINTWOOD...GRUNDY...VANSANT...KENOVA...CEREDO...WAYNE...
HUNTINGTON...HARTS...ALUM CREEK...HAMLIN...WILLIAMSON...LOGAN...
CHAPMANVILLE...MAN...MADISON...WELCH...GARY...WAR...MULLENS...
OCEANA...PINEVILLE...BECKLEY
300 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...
SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DRIFT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT WILL
NOT POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

$$

16

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
219 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses tonight. A reinforcing cold front crosses
Saturday morning. High pressure builds Sunday. Unsettled much of
the next work week, as low pressure systems cross.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Frontal boundary remains in the vicinity to the north. Diurnal
heating, weak flow, and enough moisture will provide for showers and
storms development this afternoon and evening. The area will remain
in the warm sector of the system until a cold front crosses the
area. WPC has the front reaching southeast OH at 06Z tonight.
Similar to the high resolution models RAAP and HRRR show the bulk of
the convection crossing the OH river by 06z.

The NAM model brings SFC CAPE of around 1600 J/Kg during the
afternoon diminishing towards sunset. Deep layered shear looks
marginal about 35 knots. These thresholds can sustain
thunderstorms.

Other synoptic models have QPF across most of the area during the
afternoon and evening hours. However, the high resolution models
show very little in terms of the aforementioned convection, bringing
PCPN activity overnight tonight around 06Z.

Expect organized bands of showers and storms with the front
across the area overnight. Went closer to the superblend guidance
for temperatures through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper trough will amplify over the Great Lakes region heading
into the weekend. This will be marked by another cold frontal
passage early on Saturday. The NAM continues to be a bit slower
than the new GFS...so continue to split the difference with fropa
during the first half of the day. There is enough instability to
warrant schc thunder across the e zones. Despite eq levels only
around 20 kft...the freezing level will be quite a bit lower with
a small hail threat as the front crosses along with gusty winds.
The greatest threat for this will be across eastern WV. The front
aloft will lag several hours behind. As CAA really gets going in
the afternoon...expect gusty winds and an expansive stratocu to
carry thru Saturday night. There may be some snowflakes Saturday
night across the highest elevations of the northern mtns.

While the area will still see a stratocu field on
Sunday...thinking more in the way of sun will be realized over s
zones. Will watch for a s/w trof axis to cross in the aftn across
the Upper OH Valley...with a few shra perhaps sneaking into N WV.
It will be quite cool for this time of year with highs running a
good 15 to 20 degrees blo normal.

High pressure will move over the TN Valley...nosing into the area
Sunday night. This should be the coldest night with the threat for
a frost across portions of the N Lowlands...but more likely over
the mountains with even sub freezing temps realized in the high
terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The pattern will transition to a more unsettled one next week
with rounds of showers and storms dependent on location of a warm
front and any convective induced disturbances ejecting out of the
S Plains in SW flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Plenty of sunshine, precipitable water around 1.5 inches, sfc cape
reaching 1600 J/Kg under marginal deep layered shear will enhance
convection this afternoon and evening.

Convection will continue tonight as a cold front crosses the area.
Models have the cold front along the OH river by 06Z tonight.

Some storms could approach severe containing large hail and strong
gusty winds.

therefore, outside of convection, ceilings remain MVFR/VFR, but
lowering in the band of convection with the cold front. Behind the
cold front, look for mvfr ceilings to develop, mainly after 06z
at TAF sites.

Winds will be southerly 5 to 10 kts ahead of the cold
front..especially this evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Mesoscale influences from previous convection may
change when and how thunderstorms develop and organize with the
cold front.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
211 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-WVZ007>011-014>020-027>032-036>040-046-
047-131815-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-
RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
211 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013-024>026-033>035-
131815-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-LINCOLN-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
211 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.