Areal Flood Warning 23, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
749 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Severe and flooding showers and storms sink south this
evening. Friday a transition day. High pressure for the weekend.
Another cold front early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Significant weather ahead for this afternoon. On going
thunderstorms this morning has caused numerous flooding issues
throughout the region and that threat will persist into this
evening in moisture rich air mass. Shortwave trough is pushing
southward...currently over Northern Ohio and will kick off severe
thunderstorms...supercells...with damaging winds...large
hail...and even a few tornadoes is likely this afternoon into this
evening. Breaks in the clouds has allowed for heating across the
southern half of the forecast area and CAPE values in the order of
2000 J/KG. 0-6km wind shear near 50kts and 0-1km Storm Relative
Helicity over 200 m^2/s^2 suggest that supercells are likely with
tornadoes possible. SPC Sig Tor parameter of 2 across our Southern
Forecast counties suggest that a strong longer lived tornado (EF2
and up) could be a possibility...and areas where remaining outflow
boundaries are from morning convection will be a prime location
for a spin up. However...it should be noted that the main threat
today will be large hail and damaging winds...as well as severe
flooding.

Storms will start to wind down later tonight but showers may
linger until after midnight. Widespread fog will develop as skies
clear...winds go light and dense fog is likely in some areas due
to all the rainfall that today.

Conditions will be much improved tomorrow end our string of severe
weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Any remaining showers/thunderstorms should dissipate Friday
evening as a high pressure system builds into the area. This high
will remain for Saturday into Sunday. Some moisture in advance of
the next cold front could arrive late Sunday...so can not rule out
a few showers or thunderstorms late in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Used an ECMWF and GFS blend for Sunday night into Monday. Then
added ECMWF ensemble mean and GEFS mean for Tuesday...relying even
more on the means for Wednesday and Thursday. This would have
moisture in advance of the next front for Sunday night...with a
weak front pushing through on Monday. A stronger front would then
move through on Tuesday...but with less moisture available. High
pressure will then build in behind the front on Wednesday. Another
system arrives late Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Confidence still low. Since the low levels are saturated after the
numerous rounds of convection past 18 hours. Low stratus and fog
could quickly form overnight in the wake of the showers and
storms.

Storms should sink south of Hts to Crw line after 02z. A few
showers may linger overnight. Have stratus lifting and breaking
up into stratocumulus 12z to 16z Friday.

A few showers may form Friday afternoon...but not included in
any taf location.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of changing conditions associated
with thunderstorms will vary. Fog and stratus formation overnight
tonight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 06/24/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in stratus and fog 06z to 12z Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
304 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ075-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>009-013>018-024>029-
033>037-241915-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-ATHENS-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-
GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-
WOOD-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-
CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-
304 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 289 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ066-067-076-WVZ010-011-019-020-030>032-038>040-046-047-241915-
PERRY-MORGAN-WASHINGTON-PLEASANTS-TYLER-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-LEWIS-
HARRISON-TAYLOR-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
304 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KISTNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
807 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NAUGATUCK               37.79N  82.35W
06/23/2016                   MARTIN             WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN... ROADS BLOCKED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601106

MEC

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