Blizzard Watch 1, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1207 AM MDT MON MAR 28 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI ROUTES

A COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR -SN INTO THE FAR WEST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KAFO-KPNA LINE BY
10Z...WITH MTNS BECOMING MOSTLY OBSCURED.  THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z MONDAY AS DRIER AIR
PUSHES INTO THE AREA.  AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN DIG
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND SNOW
SPREADING FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KJAC SHOULD SEE INCREASING DOWNSLOPE NE WINDS AFTER 06Z AND SOME
IMPROVEMENT...WHILE WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS OTHER AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF KJAC MONDAY NIGHT.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KWRL/KLND ROUTES

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING MONDAY MORNING
BRINGING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR -RASN VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KCOD-KGEY LINE
BY 12Z MON.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH SPREADING AREAS
OF IFR -SN SOUTH ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS...AND MAINLY MVFR -RASN
SOUTH ACROSS KWRL-KRIW-KLND 21Z-00Z MON.  WIDESPREAD IFR -SN IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA 3Z-12Z MONDAY...EXCEPT
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WY WHERE WARMER AIR WILL BRING RAIN OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX INTO VCNTY KCPR...THOUGH CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE LOW
MVFR OR IFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM MDT SUN MAR 27 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

WINTER STORM WATCH HIGHLIGHTS EXPANDED EASTWARD FOR TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN FOR
THE CENTRAL ZONES. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED IN THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE REMAINING ZONES NOT INCLUDED IN A HIGHLIGHT.

CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
BREEZY TO WINDY AREAS IN THE FAVORED WIND PRONE AREAS AND MILD
TEMPS. A STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE NW U.S. TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP MOVES INTO WESTERN WY LATER
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOW FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE FAR WEST VALLEYS. THERE LOOKS TO
BE BREAK OR LESS INTENSE SNOW MIDDAY MONDAY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. COLDER HIGH TEMPS MONDAY.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...DRY TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER AT 12Z MONDAY. ON MONDAY THIS FRONT SAGS SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WIND RIVER BASIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TO NEAR CASPER BY 00Z TUE. ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE DIVIDE. COOLER
TEMPS IN THE NORTH MONDAY AND STILL MILD IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MOTHER NATURE LOOKS TO BE THROWING A TANTRUM WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN A
WHILE WITH A GOOD SNOW STORM FOR MANY PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
AN INITIAL SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION/OVERRUNNING. WITH FAIRLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...MUCH OF THE EVENING COULD HAVE RAIN UNTIL
COLDER AIR AND DYNAMIC COOLING WORK IN AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW.
WITH 700 MILLIBAR FLOW EXPECTED TO TURN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN
AS WELL AS THE LANDER FOOTHILLS AND AND INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WIND RIVER RANGE AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SALT AND WYOMING RANGE. THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE BIG HORN RANGE COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW AS WELL
AS THE CODY FOOTHILLS. THE LEAST WOULD BE IN THE EASTERN BIG HORN
BASIN AS WELL NEAR CASPER AD THE JACKSON ALLEY WITH THE DOWNSLOPING
FLOW.

THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD FALL DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY THOUGH. THE NAM AND EUROPEAN TAKE THE BEST LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL STILL BE SNOWING...BUT MAYBE NOT AS HARD
AS ON MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...WITH THE STRONG LATE MARCH SUN A
LOT OF SNOW COULD MELT OR AT LEAST SETTLED AND LIMIT ACCUMULATION A
BIT. AS A RESULT...WE DID CUT BACK QPF A BIT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE BORDERLINE FOR SNOW SO THERE COULD END UP BEING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AND NOT SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

WE DID THE OPPOSITE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. A DEFORMATION ZONE
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SET UP OVER CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS...COMBINED
WITH WINDS TURNING TO A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND COULD BRING SOME
HEAVY SNOW FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WINDS THROUGH CASPER AND
CASPER MOUNTAIN. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM HAVE SOME HEAVY QPF
NEAR CASPER WITH THE NAM HAVING NEARLY AN INCH! THIS MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW FOR
NATRONA COUNTY. AS A RESULT...WE UPPED THE QPF FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL WYOMING.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WINDING DOWN DAY AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST AND SHEARS OUT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH SOME HEAVIER SNOW COULD
LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING INTO THE MORNING. WE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRESH SNOW.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WE DID NOT TAKE A LONG LOOK
FROM THURSDAY AND ON. ANOTHER FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE IN FOR
THURSDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS MOISTURE STARVED AND ANY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD NOT BE EXCEPTIONAL. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
THEN MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY
MOVE INTO THE WEST SUNDAY BUT FOR NOW WE LEFT CONTINUITY GIVEN MORE
IMPORTANT THINGS TO WORRY ABOUT IN THE SHORTER RANGE.&&

AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 03Z...THEN INCREASING COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z. THE JACKSON TERMINAL SITE WILL BE
SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AROUND 06Z AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z TUE. THE KPNA/KBPI TERMINAL SITES WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 12Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUE. KRKS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KWRL/KLND ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AT THE TERMINAL
SITES. SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN FAR
NORTHERN WY TOWARD 12Z WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 17Z. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WY AROUND 12Z MON WITH AREAS OF
LOWER CLOUDS FORMING DURING THE DAY MONDAY CREATING LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES KBYG AIRPORT. IN CENTRAL WY MONDAY
AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z. THE WIND WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH IN CENTRAL WY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER...

DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE WEST...ISOLATED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. THEN SNOW WILL
PREVAIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR WEST
VALLEYS. ON MONDAY PERIODS OF SNOW FOR THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EAST OF THE DIVIDE MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND THIS CONTINUES
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WYZ002-003-005-007-015>019.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WYZ008>011.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY
FOR WYZ014-024.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
WYZ025-026.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY
FOR WYZ023-027.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WYZ020-022.

&&

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...AR

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