Winter Storm Watch 4, NWS Reno, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
207 AM PST FRI JAN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS,
RAIN, AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BE PREPARED FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

+ OVERVIEW...
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. A
WINTER STORM WITH A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING INTO NORTHERN SIERRA
AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL SPREAD SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT TRACKING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS
FROM 8000-9000 FEET TO 4000-5500 FEET THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
MAIN IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA. IMPACTS FOR
TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE SIERRA AND RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SPECIFICS ON WINDS AND
SNOW TOTALS CAN BE FOUND IN THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM STATEMENTS.

+ STORM TODAY AND SATURDAY...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE MAIN PLUME REACHED THE NORTHERN
SIERRA AROUND 11 PM YESTERDAY EVENING. CURRENT SNOW LEVELS ARE
RUNNING AT 8000-9000 FEET IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND 7000-8000 FEET IN
LASSEN COUNTY. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS INTO WESTERN
NEVADA THIS MORNING, BUT ONLY EXPECTING AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.10 INCH.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RAIN SHADOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NEVADA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA BY NOON, AS THE JET NOSES INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PRECIPITATION INTENSIFIES ALONG THE NORTHERN
SIERRA CREST. MOST LOCATIONS WILL GUST AT 45-60 MPH WITH WIND PRONE
AREAS AND FOOTHILLS GUSTING AT 60-80 MPH. WINDS AND WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL HELP RAISE AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA, WHICH COULD SET NEW RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TREND HIGHER ON LIQUID AMOUNTS ALONG THE
CREST. TOTALS COULD EXCEED 3 INCHES ALONG THE CREST, PERHAPS AROUND
4 INCHES FOR FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCATIONS AROUND PLUMAS-EUREKA STATE
PARK AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. SNOW TOTALS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE
AS 1 TO 3 FEET OF HEAVY WET SIERRA CEMENT ACCUMULATE ALONG THE
CREST ABOVE 8000 FEET. TOTALS BELOW 8000 FEET WILL BE DECIDED BY
HOW QUICKLY SNOW LEVELS DROP, EITHER BY THE COLD FRONT TRACKING
SOUTH OR DOWNWARD MIXING OF COLD AIR DUE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
MAIN POINT TO REMEMBER IS TRAVEL WILL TURN DIFFICULT OVER THE
SIERRA PASSES TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IF YOU HAVE
PLANS TO HEAD UP INTO THE SIERRA FOR SATURDAY, BE PREPARED FOR A
SLOWER THAN NORMAL COMMUTE.

FOR WESTERN NEVADA, THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BELOW 6000 FEET LATE TONIGHT, SO THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY IN STOREY
COUNTY AND THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AROUND RENO AND CARSON CITY. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
I-80. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT, SO BE
PREPARED FOR AREAS OF BLACK ICE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WET ROADS
WILL FREEZE.

+ SUNDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND WAVE TO TRACK
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HASN'T BEEN OVERLY CONSISTENT. HOWEVER,
INSTABILITY, LEFT OVER MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR ALL LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80. BRONG

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED LONG TERM FORECAST. THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW SOME AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT
THAT FALLS APART BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION EARLY MONDAY STARTS TO TRANSLATE
WEST DURING THE DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST.
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO HANG ON TO SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAKES SOME SENSE IN THE PRESENCE
OF THE TROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BUT NOT AS MUCH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES OVER THE RIDGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS FOR AREAS
NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE.

AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST THE CHANCES FOR ANY PCPN DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...SO WE WILL SHOW A DRY FORECAST FROM LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE MODELS REALLY START TO DIVERGE ON THURSDAY.
THE GFS MAINTAINS THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AN
UPPER LOW EDGING TOWARD THE WEST COAST. AS THIS LOW MOVES OVER THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY IT DEVELOPS PCPN FOR THE SIERRA. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OVERWHELMINGLY SUPPORT THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION
MAINTAINING THE RIDGE SO WE WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION FOR
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES START THE EXTENDED PERIOD BELOW AVERAGE BUT THEN WARM
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. XX

&&

.AVIATION...
AS THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING
WINTER STORM STARTS TO EDGE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...AVIATION
IMPACTS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS
APPROACHING 45-55 MPH IN THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. EAST
OF THE SIERRA DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL PUSH GUSTS TO NEAR 65 MPH
IN SOME WIND PRONE AREAS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL EASE IN THE SIERRA
AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING EAST OF
THE SIERRA. THIS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT TURBULENCE POSSIBILITIES
OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT MOST TERMINALS BY
LATE THIS MORNING.

RAIN MOVES INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. BY LATE THIS
EVENING THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS WITH IFR
CIGS/VSBYS FOR KTRK/KTVL AFTER 30/06 UTC. AS THE PRECIPITATION
INTENSITIES INCREASE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY
SNOW FALL IN THE SIERRA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT. 3-7 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON TERMINAL
RUNWAYS ABOVE 5500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.

EAST OF THE SIERRA RAIN DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. THIS RAIN MAY CHANGE
TO SNOW BRIEFLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY BE
MIDDAY SATURDAY. A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR
KRNO/KCXP/KMMH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATION AT THESE TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KMMH...WILL BE SUNDAY.
XX

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE RISES ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE
NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WHILE RIVERS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE, THE PIT, MIDDLE FORK
FEATHER AND SUSAN RIVERS WILL SEE THE LARGEST INCREASE IN FLOW.
ELSEWHERE THE DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO SHORT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAINSTEM RIVERS.

PROBABLY THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THE HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTHERN
SIERRA WILL BE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN POORLY DRAINED
URBAN AREAS. ROCKS MAY ALSO FALL ONTO ROADS IN CANYONS AND STEEP
TERRAIN. BRONG

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
     SATURDAY NVZ005.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     NVZ005.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON NVZ002.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
     SATURDAY NVZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY NVZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     NVZ003-004.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
     SATURDAY CAZ070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     CAZ070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON CAZ072-073.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
     SATURDAY CAZ073.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
     SATURDAY CAZ072.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1138 AM PST FRI JAN 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW MOUNT ROSE SKI ARE 39.32N 119.90W
01/29/2016  M135 MPH         WASHOE             NV   MESONET

            SLIDE MOUNTAIN RECORDED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 93 MPH WITH A
            GUST TO 135 MPH AT 9650 FEET.

1125 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S WASHOE CITY         39.29N 119.81W
01/29/2016  M75.00 MPH       WASHOE             NV   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            75 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED BY THE NEVADA DEPARTMENT OF
            TRANSPORTATION SENSOR IN WASHOE VALLEY.

&&

MCGUIRE

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