Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Slightly drier and hotter conditions will develop
late this week into this weekend as an upper level ridge strengthens
along the Carolina coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
As of 1230 pm Tuesday...

An upper level low offshore the Southeast coast will move slowly
west toward the FL Peninsula today, while a broad surface low
persists over the Deep South. Southeasterly /onshore/ flow (sfc-H85)
will broaden/expand inland toward the Appalachians today, pushing
what (if anything) remains of the stalled frontal zone to the N/W
this afternoon and enhancing orographic ascent on the eastern slopes
of the southern Appalachians. Whether convection develops in onshore
flow over the SE Coastal Plain/Sandhills or in the NW Piedmont along
a differential heating boundary between 15-18Z, convective coverage
is expected to shift west of the Highway 1 corridor as the afternoon
progresses, with the greatest coverage expected in the W/NW Piedmont
between 21-04Z. Chances for convection should diminish after
midnight, though isolated showers in onshore flow will remain
possible through much of the overnight period. Expect highs ranging
from the the lower 80s in the far NW Piedmont to near 90F n the
Sandhills and SE Coastal Plain. Lows Tuesday night should be similar
to previous nights, in the low/mid 70s. -Vincent

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 pm Tuesday...

Expect a similar pattern to today, albeit with a decreased overall
potential for diurnal convection, particularly over eastern NC where
synoptic subsidence attendant a strengthening ridge aloft may
suppress convective development altogether. Expect the best chances
(30-40%) along/west of the Highway 1 corridor between 21-04Z. Expect
highs ranging from the mid 80s (NW) to lower 90s east. Lows
Wednesday night in the lower to mid 70s. -Vincent

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 PM Tuesday...

The upper level ridge is forecast to continue to build westward from
the western Atlantic into the southeastern and southern mid-Atlantic
states mid to late week. This will increase the mid/upper level
subsidence especially as the upper ridge peaks in strength Thursday
into Friday night. The surface ridge will be located near Bermuda,
which is a climatological preferred location for mid-summer. The
low and mid level flow around the high will continue to pump plenty
of moisture in from the south. Dew points will remain high (in the
lower to mid 70s). There will be less in the way of convection with
more subsidence and less surface moisture convergence. However,
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will still occur in the
afternoon and early evening Thursday and Friday. It will be hotter
than recent days with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Lows will be in
the lower to mid 70s through Saturday.

Heights are forecast to back off this weekend from the west allowing
deep moisture to return to at least the western third of our region,
(western Piedmont), over the weekend. The increased cloud cover and
chance of mainly PM showers/thunderstorms will allow highs to back
off into the upper 80s NW. Highs will still be in the lower 90s
elsewhere through the weekend.

The chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms will increase
early next week as the flow aloft transitions to a more SW flow. A
cold front will slowly sag southward toward the southern mid-
Atlantic providing a focus for convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 pm Tuesday...

Difficult forecast. MVFR to LIFR ceilings affected the INT/GSO/RWI
terminals as of 15Z this morning, but should gradually lift and
improve to MVFR/VFR by early/mid afternoon. VFR conditions were
already present at FAY/RDU at 15Z, though broken MVFR ceilings will
be possible early/mid afternoon, and scattered to numerous
convection will be possible at all terminals, particularly at
INT/GSO, with the greatest coverage between 21Z this afternoon and
04Z tonight. Chances for convection will gradually diminish after
04Z (midnight), however, sub-VFR ceilings and/or visbys in fog are
likely to develop once again during the pre-dawn hours at most if
not all terminals, primarily between 09-15Z Wednesday.

Looking Ahead: Expect a gradual decrease in convective coverage/
chances late week into this weekend as an upper level ridge
strengthens along the Carolina coast. -Vincent

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/V
NEAR TERM...V
SHORT TERM...V
LONG TERM...Badgett
AVIATION...V

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
318 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

NCZ021>023-038-039-073>075-083>086-100900-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
318 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY
LEAD TO SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AN HOUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-076>078-088-089-100900-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-
EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-CUMBERLAND-
SAMPSON-
318 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
322 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

NCZ042-043-077-078-092015-
JOHNSTON   NC-WILSON   NC-WAYNE   NC-HARNETT   NC-
322 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

 ...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF JOHNSTON...WILSON...NORTHEASTERN WAYNE AND HARNETT
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 320 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF SHOWERS
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR DUNN TO 8
MILES WEST OF FARMVILLE. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. SOME
PLACES COULD RECEIVE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN LESS
THAN AN HOUR.

HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SMITHFIELD...LILLINGTON...WILSON...CLAYTON...DUNN...ANGIER...
BENSON...ELM CITY...FREMONT AND MICRO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 7782 3549 7783 3526 7848 3532 7854
      3525 7862 3526 7880 3519 7910 3527 7922
      3558 7891 3552 7871 3566 7852 3573 7819
      3584 7785 3587 7783 3583 7775 3573 7772
      3568 7766
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 126DEG 19KT 3537 7864 3558 7774

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
405 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

NCZ026-027-040>043-076-077-092045-
JOHNSTON   NC-WAKE   NC-NASH   NC-LEE   NC-WILSON   NC-CHATHAM   NC-
FRANKLIN   NC-HARNETT   NC-
405 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

 ...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN JOHNSTON...SOUTHERN WAKE...SOUTHWESTERN
NASH...NORTHEASTERN LEE... WEST CENTRAL WILSON...SOUTHEASTERN
CHATHAM...SOUTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN AND NORTH CENTRAL HARNETT COUNTIES
UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 404 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WILSON TO
NEAR CLAYTON TO NEAR LILLINGTON. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RALEIGH...CARY...WILSON...GARNER...FUQUAY-VARINA...CLAYTON...
ZEBULON...ANGIER...BAILEY AND APEX.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3593 7818 3580 7872 3559 7925 3544 7890
      3557 7843 3568 7791
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 128DEG 20KT 3569 7800 3561 7848 3546 7883

WSS