Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
110 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front and very moist air mass will hold over North
Carolina through Tuesday. An area of high pressure centered offshore
will then begin to build westward into the mid Atlantic region
through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 840 pm Sunday...

Convection has weakened and/or dissipated along the weak stalled
boundary over the southern Piedmont and Sandhills at mid evening.
However... convection continued over upstate SC into western NC.
Renewed convection is expected overnight as a WAA pattern develops a
top the stalled low level boundary. Dew points in the 70s will
return to the western and northern Piedmont where some brief drying
occurred Sunday afternoon. This return of moisture will be into the
frontal zone and aided by difluent flow aloft, creating lift of the
very moist air mass. Scattered to possibly numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected to redevelop overnight over the southern
zones, then spread northward. Locally heavy rain will be the main
weather hazard with some flooding of urban and poor draining areas
expected. Flash flood guidance is a low as 2-3 inches in 3/6 hours
and that is without urban consideration. Therefore, if convection
picks on our cities/urban areas, flash flooding would be a concern.
Confidence is less than 50/50 in any location, so we will not issue
a Watch at this time.

Skies will become mostly cloudy with lows in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 pm Sunday...

Significant uncertainty persists with regard to where the focus for
heavy rainfall will be tomorrow. Guidance indicates that a weak low
pressure system over northern FL is expected to slightly strengthen
as it wobbles northward into the Deep South, strengthening height/
wind fields along the Southeast Coast, reinforcing southerly flow
/rich atlantic moisture advection/ into the Carolinas. The location
of the stalled frontal zone will highly depend upon the evolution of
low-level height/wind fields along the Southeast coast, which will
be a function of a variety of factors including the weak low
pressure system progressing northward into the Deep South, latent
heat release associated with deep convection that develops invof the
frontal zone this aft/eve into tonight, and perhaps convective
outflow, as well. At this time, expect the frontal zone to make at
least slight northward progress back toward the Highway 64 corridor,
and will indicate precipitation chances similar to today. Confidence
in rainfall amounts/location remain too uncertain for a flash flood
watch to be issued. Expect highs similar to today and lows similar
to tonight. -Vincent

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 310 PM Sunday...

The upper level pattern will be characterized by Bermuda high
pressure building into the region from the east, with a pair of lows
to the south. One low will sit over the Gulf coast early in the week
before slowly moving north along the mountains, producing plentiful
rainfall in that region, while the other will sit off the GA/SC
coast for the first part of the period before slowly migrating
northward late in the week. Similarly at the surface, Central NC
will be sandwiched between a high off the New England coast and a
low over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The result will be a
feed of warm moist air from the southeast then south through the
week. Expect PWATs of 2" or more through the week and into the
weekend. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday and
Wednesday, increasing slightly for late in the week, upper 80s to
low 90s. Lows will remain uncomfortably in the low to mid 70s
through the weekend. Expect the usual summertime diurnal convection,
with highest chances in the aft/eve hours and minimum overnight/
early morning. Best chances will be across the west and south where
they are in closer proximity to the Gulf low. -KCP

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 110 am Monday...

Of most immediate concern is the area of storms that will affect
INT/GSO through 09z, bringing a period of MVFR-IFR conditions in
moderate rain and erratic gusty winds. Isolated showers are also
possible early this morning near RDU and RWI.

A frontal zone and very moist air mass will hold over the area today
through tonight, bringing unsettled weather. Widespread IFR/LIFR
cigs are expected to impact INT/GSO/RDU/RWI this morning, mainly
from 07z through 14z, with a lower (but not zero) risk of low cigs
at FAY. Vsbys should be mostly VFR or MVFR at all sites this
morning, although RDU and RWI have a chance to see IFR vsbys.
Conditions will improve to VFR later this morning, between 14z and
16z, with cigs lifting and mixing out gradually. Numerous showers
and storms will again develop this afternoon, bringing a period of
sub-VFR conditions with locally gusty winds. These are most likely
to impact FAY soon after 17z, then track northward, affecting
INT/GSO/RDU/RWI after 19z. Showers/storms will slowly decrease in
coverage late tonight, toward the end of the TAF valid period.

Looking beyond 06z early Tue morning: Sub-VFR stratus and fog are
likely Tue morning between 07z and 14z, and again Wed morning. The
best coverage of showers/storms will begin to shift westward to
INT/GSO and points west on Tue afternoon/evening, and even more so
on Wed, as offshore high pressure starts to nose westward and build
into the mid Atlantic coast. The risk for early-morning sub-VFR
stratus/fog will be lower on Thu/Fri, as will the chance for
afternoon storms. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...Hartfield

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
943 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-090145-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
943 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN AN HOUR WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1210 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016

NCZ021-022-038-039-080530-
GUILFORD   NC-RANDOLPH   NC-DAVIDSON   NC-FORSYTH   NC-
1210 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
MOVE NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF GUILFORD...RANDOLPH... DAVIDSON AND
SOUTHERN FORSYTH COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM EDT...

AT 1201 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS DAVIDSON AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. THE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN FORSYTH AND SOUTHERN GUILFORD COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT 90
MINUTES. RAINFALL RATES WITH SOME OF THE STORMS WILL EXCEED AN INCH
PER HOUR AND WILL PRODUCE QUICK RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3611 8051 3612 8046 3615 8044 3614 7954
      3551 7956 3551 8018 3558 8021 3568 8033
      3572 8033 3574 8045 3583 8047 3584 8039
      3588 8042 3589 8037 3596 8038 3599 8042
      3601 8042 3606 8046 3604 8049 3606 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 0401Z 179DEG 9KT 3572 7990

BLAES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
143 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016

NCZ021>023-038>040-080715-
GUILFORD   NC-RANDOLPH   NC-DAVIDSON   NC-ALAMANCE   NC-FORSYTH   NC-
CHATHAM   NC-
143 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF GUILFORD...RANDOLPH...DAVIDSON...
WESTERN ALAMANCE...FORSYTH AND NORTHWESTERN CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL
330 AM EDT...

AT 140 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
TRIAD...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH SPREADING ACROSS GUILFORD...
FORSYTH AND ALAMANCE COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT 90 MINUTES. RAINFALL
RATES WITH SOME OF THE STORMS WILL EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR AND WILL
PRODUCE RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8033 3624 7937 3575 7937 3558 7956
      3558 8005 3573 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0538Z 177DEG 9KT 3590 7988

BLAES