Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
920 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the area from the northwest late tonight,
then stall across the region Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 920 PM Saturday...

Outflow dominated band of storms across southern Virginia will
continue to progress south and into the northern portions of the NC
piedmont and coastal plain counties in the next hour or two. While
the storms are moving into a weaker sheared environment, airmass
across the area remains moderately buoyant, sufficient enough to
support a vigorous updraft or two capable of producing isolated wind
damage. Have raised pops to high chance/near likely for the next few
hours along the Virgina bordering counties. While this convection
should gradually weaken overnight owing to further nocturnal cooling
and weakening instability, could see some lingering convection
overnight as the cold front drops south into the northern third of
the forecast area between 08 to 12z.

Lows in the lower 70s north to mid 70s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM Saturday...

A potentially wet period as the cold front currently to our NW is forecast
to settle into NC Sunday, then stall over southern sections Sunday night
and Monday. The wind at the surface will shift to the east behind the
front. Weak areas of low pressure are expected to aid in lift and convergence
near the boundary and a WAA pattern a top the frontal zone will aid lift
of the very moist air easterly flow along and north of the boundary. Of
concern is that the mid level flow will become light and in opposite direction
to the mean low level flow. This should result in slow moving showers
and thunderstorms with the potential for training as well. Flash flood
guidance of 2-3 inches in 3-6 hours exists over the NW and N
Piedmont including portions of the Triad and Triangle areas (obviously much
lower than last week due to the recent heavy rain). Therefore, if widespread
heavy rain continues to appear likely in later forecasts for this period -
a flash flood watch may be needed for a portion of the Piedmont region
sometime Sunday into Monday or even Tuesday. We will continue to mention
the potential for heavy rain in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

The temperatures will be cooler by day with the extensive afternoon cloudiness and
the likelihood of showers/storms Sunday through Monday. Highs generally in the
80s. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
As of 315 PM Saturday...

The weak upper level trough will start to retreat northward as a
developing Bermuda high ridges into the region early in the week.
Meanwhile a tropical low will linger along the Gulf coast. While the
weather should gradually dry out some in the long term, there will
still be the daily chances for diurnal showers/storms, best chances
in the west and south, in closest proximity to the low. Pwats will
remain high, around 2". Highs will continue to hover around normal,
mid 80s to low 90s. Similarly for the lows, they will remain
uncomfortably in the low to mid 70s. The models indicate the Gulf
low slowly migrating north northeastward over the Appalachians late
in the week into the weekend. However, confidence in how the
migration and evolution of this system will play out with convection
chances is still pretty low, thus will keep the slight chance to
chance showers and storms through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 720 PM Saturday...

All convection in the region has dissipated early this evening.
However, there is a chance of convection arriving from the north
tonight, mainly north of KFAY. Stratus is possible again late
tonight into early Sunday morning, with IFR CIGS possible.

Looking beyond 12z Sunday, showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop across central NC on Sunday afternoon, then linger into the
evening hours. Sub-VFR conditions are expected Sun afternoon
through much of Sun night as a frontal zone stalls out over the
area. Sub-VFR conditions with fog and low stratus are expected late
Sun night into early Mon morning, then another round of
showers and storms is expected Mon afternoon/evening. This pattern
is likely to hold through Tue through Thu, with good chances for sub-
VFR conditions in afternoon/evening showers/storms, with fog and low
stratus possible each morning.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Badgett/KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Badgett/Franklin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
850 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-080100-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
850 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT.

CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE BETWEEN 1 AND
3 INCHES OF RAINFALL, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER THE REGION WELL INTO MONDAY,
COURTESY OF A VERY SLOW MOVING OR STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

NCZ007-022>025-070600-
GUILFORD   NC-PERSON   NC-DURHAM   NC-ORANGE   NC-ALAMANCE   NC-
1245 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF GUILFORD...SOUTHERN PERSON...NORTHWESTERN DURHAM...NORTHERN
ORANGE AND ALAMANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM EDT...

AT 1240 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR STOKESDALE EAST TO
REIDSVILLE TO NEAR YANCEYVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THESE
STORMS WILL INITIALLY IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
85 WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GUILFORD
AND NORTHERN ALAMANCE COUNTIES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUMMERFIELD...GREENSBORO...UNION RIDGE...BURLINGTON...ROXBORO...
MEBANE...ROUGEMONT...MCLEANSVILLE AND CARR.

LAT...LON 3625 7881 3597 7928 3598 8002 3626 8001
      3624 7915 3639 7915 3641 7894
TIME...MOT...LOC 0436Z 333DEG 18KT 3621 7988

BLAES