Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1025 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will settle south into NC today as an upper level
trough crosses the Mid-Atlantic state.  High pressure will follow
for Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1025 AM Tuesday...

Early morning analysis continues to highlight a very moist and
unstable air mass over central NC. Meso-analysis has a weak low
level trough roughly w-sw to e-ne across the region. this feature
aiding to pool moisture over sections of the eastern Piedmont and
central/southern coastal plain where a few showers have developed
since 12Z.

As the atmosphere continues to warm/destabilize, expect convective
coverage to increase, with convection likely concentrated in two
areas, namely over the southern counties, and near the VA border in
vicinity of a swd moving sfc front. While the atmosphere should
become moderately unstable over central NC this afternoon, the
environment is weakly sheared, and lapse rates marginal at best.
Thus, main hazards from the stronger storms will be torrential
downpours, frequent lightning, and isolated wind gusts 40-50 mph
(due to precip loading). If storms begin to train, could see a
heightened risk for localized flooding, especially in urban areas.

High temps this afternoon on target to reach near 90-lower 90s
areawide. Highest heat index values confined to the southern
counties where readings near 100 degrees probable.

While bulk of convection will dissipate with loss of heating, should
see a few showers and storms persist well into the night as the weak
sfc boundary drifts swd across the region. Overnight temps in the
low-mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM Tuesday...

the aforementioned front will slip south toward the Savannah River
Basin by Wednesday morning, focusing the best surface convergence to
our south.  However, the 850mb front will linger over NC and there
is essentially no airmass change behind the front, with PW staying
around 2 inches.  This should again result in scattered to numerous
showers/storms, especially across the southern Piedmont/Coastal
plain, with locally heavy rainfall and the potential for some minor
flooding.  forecast soundings suggest stratus over the northwest
Piedmont could linger into early afternoon, potentially suppressing
highs in the lower 80s, while areas to the southeast reach the mid
and upper 80s. Lows Wednesday night in the upper 60s and lower
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

The models indicate a remnant TUTT/low now over ERN OK will drift
ENE across the TN Valley Thu and Carolinas Fri-Fri night. At the
surface, high pressure will extend across the Middle Atlantic
states, north of a frontal zone forecast to linger across SC and
SERN NC during the same time. As such, shower/storm potential will
be maximized across the SRN tier of the RAH CWFA Thu-Fri, with
continued slightly below average temperatures in the 80s.

Thereafter, mid-upper level sub-tropical ridging initially over the
SRN Plains and WRN GOM is forecast to expand EWD across the SERN
states, at the base of a broad trough over the NERN quarter of the
nation, and consequently provide for WNW flow aloft across NC this
weekend and early next week. The aforementioned surface ridge will
then drift offshore by Sat, in advance of another frontal zone, and
focus for convection, forecast to settle into the SRN Middle
Atlantic states on Sun, with a similar fate (as the previous front)
of stalling over SC and SRN NC by Mon. The hottest day of the
stretch will be Sat, when middle 90s are expected, with temperatures
otherwise near average through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 650 AM Tuesday...

Other than some isolated areas of IFR/LIFR conditions this
morning,none of which are impacting TAF sites, VFR conditions
will prevail.  A cold front will drop south into the area this
evening, helping to trigger scattered storms.  Timing of storms
is still uncertain when it comes to individual terminals, but it
appears the storms may continue into the overnight hours,
possibly becoming particularly focused near KGSO and KINT. Stratus is
expected to develop as the front settles through the area tonight,
with highest confidence at KINT and KGSO..

Looking ahead: Low ceilings expected to develop tonight may linger
past mid-day in the Triad on Wednesday.  Otherwise, sub-VFR
restrictions will occur primarily with isolated to scattered showers
and storms during the afternoon/early evening, with decreasing
coverage each day through the end of the week. Patchy early morning
fog/stratus will also be possible.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...BS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
443 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-030845-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
443 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SCATTERED, SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBAN AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
118 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NCZ007-008-021815-
PERSON   NC-GRANVILLE   NC-
118 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PERSON
AND NORTHWESTERN GRANVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 117 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ROXBORO. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OXFORD...ROXBORO...STOVALL...MAYO RESERVOIR...BEREA...SURL AND BETHEL
HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS... AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

IF ON OR NEAR MAYO RESERVOIR OR KERR LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND
MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE
OUT TO 10 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO
SAFE SHELTER NOW! DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3653 7854 3631 7856 3628 7884 3640 7900
      3654 7887 3654 7868
TIME...MOT...LOC 1717Z 226DEG 2KT 3640 7887

WSS