Alert archive / North Carolina / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

July 31, 2016Anson County, North Carolina

NWS Raleigh, NC issued this special weather statement at Jul 31, 2016, 7:02 PM EDT for Anson County, North Carolina. It was in force for 58 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 31, 2016, 7:02 PM EDT (23:02 UTC)
Expired: Jul 31, 2016, 8:00 PM EDT
In force: 58 min
Issued by: NWS Raleigh, NC

County Anson County, NC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 158 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 106 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 100 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -117 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1328 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 36 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 31, 3:30 PM EDT, 3 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 3:30 PM EDT, 3 hours 32 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
330 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will push east, from the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley today, into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states Monday. A
surface trough will strengthen over central North Carolina this
afternoon and evening, then drift into the Coastal Plain later
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...

Strong daytime heating within the moist 1.7-2.2" PWAT airmass in
place east of the baggy trough approaching slowly from the west will
support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. A weak shear axis moving eastward across
Central NC will also provide some weak support, but otherwise storms
should be diurnally driven. Moderate instability of 2000-2500 of
MLCAPE coupled with deep layer shear of 15 to 20kts could support an
isolated strong to severe storms, capable of producing an isolated
wet downburst. Additionally, given the high moisture content,
localized flooding will also be possible.

Lows overnight in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday and Monday night/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...

Mid/upper level trough will move slowly east-southeast through the
Mid-Atlantic States late Monday. Nwly flow in the wake of the upper
trough passage is expected to push the weak surface front/trough
east towards the coast by daybreak Tuesday.  PWATS will remain
high(1.7-2.2")ahead of the trough. Near sfc moisture convergence
along the eastward moving surface front/trough and strong daytime
heating will support high chance to likely pops. Thermodynamic
environment will be very similar to today with moderate buoyancy and
weak 15 to 20kt of deep layer shear supportive of an isolated severe
threat/wet downburst.

Not as warm as previous days, owing to increase cloud cover and high
rain chances. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, highly dependent
on convective evolution.

Storms could linger longer into the evening and overnight hours,
especially across eastern areas invof of the surface trough/front,
but eventually drier air should advect into the area from the west
ending rain chances. Lows 70 to 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
As of 252 PM Sunday...

On Tuesday, the longwave trough axis will shift to our east,
followed by drier northerly flow in its wake, as indicated by pwats
falling from from 1.8 inches Tue morning to around 1.25 inches by
Tue afternoon. Sfc dwpts are progged to drop below 70 for areas west
of I-95 during this time as well.  This relatively drier pattern
will continue through the mid-week period, so look for pops at or
below climo during this time, along with near seasonable temps.

Temps and humidity will gradually increase again during the late-
week period and into next weekend as the sfc ridge axis shifts to
our east and s-sw low level flow becomes re-established across our
area. However, guidance suggest pops will remain below climo given
the mid/upr ridge centered just to our west and the absence of any
well-defined lifting mechanisms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday through Friday/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

24-Hour TAF period: Strong daytime heating within a moist airmass
will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. The strongest storms will reduce CIGS and
VSBYS into the MVFR/IFR categories, otherwise expect generally VFR
conditions with light swly winds. Scattered to numerous storms
are expected again Monday afternoon.

Outlook: Sub-VFR restrictions will occur primarily with isolated to
scattered showers and storms during the afternoon/early evening.
Patchy early morning fog will also be possible.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...CBL

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 31, 3:58 AM EDT, 15 hours 4 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
358 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-010800-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
358 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH. THIS
INCLUDES FAYETTEVILLE... GOLDSBORO... WILSON... ROCKY MOUNT AND
ROANOKE RAPIDS... WHERE HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 TO 103 WILL OCCUR.
CONTINUED CAUTION IS ADVISED TO PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID-
EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH... FREQUENT LIGHTNING... AND
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED... MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT... SANDHILLS... AND COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
HEAT INDICES INCREASE.

PWB

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 5:02 PM EDT, 2 hours before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
502 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NCZ027-042-043-078-312200-
JOHNSTON   NC-NASH   NC-WILSON   NC-WAYNE   NC-
502 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
JOHNSTON...SOUTHERN NASH...WILSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
EDT...

AT 501 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ELM
CITY TO 9 MILES EAST OF SMITHFIELD TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF GARNER.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCKY MOUNT...GOLDSBORO...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...CLAYTON...
MOUNT OLIVE...BENSON...ELM CITY...FREMONT AND WALNUT CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 7782 3518 7783 3515 7790 3517 7793
      3517 7795 3519 7802 3518 7806 3522 7824
      3529 7830 3526 7841 3526 7848 3549 7866
      3552 7871 3583 7825 3592 7781 3587 7783
      3583 7775 3573 7772 3568 7766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 283DEG 18KT 3573 7774 3554 7818 3557 7860

10

Local storm report, Jul 31, 6:05 PM EDT, 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
605 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N WISE                36.52N  78.19W
07/30/2016                   WARREN             NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO LARGE PECAN TREES BLOWN ONTO A HOUSE AND PICKUP
            TRUCK ON MAC POWELL ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600647

GIH

Local storm report, Jul 31, 6:08 PM EDT, 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
608 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW WISE               36.52N  78.22W
07/30/2016                   WARREN             NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON ROOKER DAIRY ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600648

GIH

Local storm report, Jul 31, 6:09 PM EDT, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
609 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNE WISE              36.53N  78.16W
07/30/2016                   WARREN             NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AND SMALL STORAGE BUILDING DESTROYED ON
            FELTS ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600649

GIH

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 6:29 PM EDT, 33 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
629 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NCZ007-008-022>025-312330-
GUILFORD   NC-PERSON   NC-DURHAM   NC-ORANGE   NC-ALAMANCE   NC-
GRANVILLE   NC-
629 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
GUILFORD...PERSON...NORTHERN DURHAM...ORANGE...ALAMANCE AND GRANVILLE
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 627 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR VIRGILINA TO NEAR
GREENSBORO. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THE STRONGEST STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR CARR.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENSBORO...DURHAM...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...OXFORD...ROXBORO...
HILLSBOROUGH...CREEDMOOR...MEBANE AND BUTNER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3654 7846 3651 7850 3646 7851 3617 7850
      3602 7855 3608 7869 3607 7874 3584 7953
      3590 7955 3592 7992 3625 7990 3624 7915
      3654 7914
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 297DEG 13KT 3650 7886 3609 7979

10

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 7:02 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
702 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NCZ074-083-084-010000-
RICHMOND   NC-ANSON   NC-MONTGOMERY   NC-
702 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
RICHMOND... CENTRAL ANSON... AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES
UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 702 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ANSONVILLE...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF WADESBORO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WADESBORO...ANSONVILLE...POLKTON...MOUNT GILEAD...LILESVILLE...
COVINGTON...PEKIN... AND BLEWETT FALLS LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER INDOORS...AN ENCLOSED VEHICLE
CAN PROVIDE SAFE SHELTER. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND
WIND.

&&

LAT...LON 3514 8024 3516 8019 3515 8018 3515 8016
      3517 8016 3517 8014 3518 8011 3517 8011
      3514 8007 3517 8005 3520 8006 3526 7988
      3497 7979 3495 8021
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 271DEG 17KT 3507 8004

GIH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 31, 3:47 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Harnett	43 min
Jul 31, 4:05 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Harnett	40 min
Jul 31, 4:07 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Johnston	53 min
Jul 31, 4:15 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Edgecombe	60 min
Jul 31, 4:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Edgecombe, Halifax	31 min
Jul 31, 5:02 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Johnston, Wayne, Wilson	58 min
Jul 31, 5:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Johnston, Wayne	45 min
Jul 31, 6:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Sampson	42 min
Jul 31, 6:29 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Alamance, Durham, Granville, Guilford, Orange, Person	61 min
Jul 31, 6:38 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Orange	52 min
Jul 31, 7:31 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Alamance, Durham, Granville, Orange, Person, Randolph and 1 more	59 min
Jul 31, 7:47 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RAH	Alamance, Durham, Granville, Guilford, Orange, Person and 2 more	3 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Carolina, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.