Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
941 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the area tonight and cross the
Carolinas by Wednesday. A strong upper level ridge over the
central US will expand east through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 941 PM Tuesday...

Isolated severe thunderstorms continue over the northern Piedmont,
with scattered strong storms over the SW Piedmont and Sandhills at
mid-evening. The main threat has been wind gusts to 60 mph. That
threat still lingers through midnight or 100 AM. In addition
to the wind threat, lightning continues to be nearly continuous
with the storms approaching the Triangle from the north
and the storms to the south and west. This will be a significant
hazard with these storms.

Overnight... expect the storm chances to slowly reduce to a slight
chance as the cold front slips into the northern zones late.

Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Tuesday...

The cold front is expected to settle over NC on Wednesday morning,
with slightly drier and more stable air north of the front and
moderate instability south of the front again by Wednesday
afternoon. Convection will be focused across the southern and
eastern CWA, and modest/broad cyclonic mid-level flow may support
a few clusters of strong storms. Morning stratus shouldn't have
any impact on afternoon highs, which will be in the upper 80s and
lower 90s based on a slight dip in 1000-850mb thicknesses to
around 1420m. Lows Wednesday night in the 68-72.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Tuesday...

Thursday through Sunday: Central NC will be stuck between a strong
upper level ridge will centered over the Midwest and an upper level
trough along the east coast of the U.S. Thursday into Saturday.
Northwest flow aloft will dominate the region during that time, with
some weak mid-level disturbances may kick off some convection.
Otherwise, the forecast should remain mostly dry through the end of
the week. The high will dampen some but stretch more west-east for
the weekend. At the the surface, the piedmont trough will be a
persistent feature over the Carolinas, with a Bermuda high to the
east, southwest flow over NC, and ridging west of the mountains. The
more significant weather issue will be the temperatures, which will
increase from highs around 90 degrees and lows in the low 70s
Thursday, to highs in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees and lows in
the mid 70s by Sunday. Barring any significant forecast changes
between now and then, Sunday looks the most likely to reach heat
advisory criteria (heat index of 105 degrees), although Saturday
could also reach criteria.

Monday and Tuesday: There is a bit more uncertainty in the forecast
for early next week, thus will stick with near climatology. Best
chances for showers and storms in the aft/eve with a lull overnight.
Temperatures a bit above normal, highs in the low to mid 90s and
lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 940 PM Tuesday...

Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected for most of
the current TAF period.  A cold front approaching from the northwest
will enhance thunderstorms coverage this evening, with a decent
chance of storms impacting eastern terminals like RDU, FAY and RWI.
Confidence in the next few hours is relatively low given the lack of
a focus for the storms, but later this evening the cold front should
help trigger several storms across the northern and eastern portions
of the Piedmont and Coastal Plain.  Confidence is highest at RWI and
hires guidance suggests the best potential will be between 23Z and
03Z.  Otherwise scattered showers and storms will be possible
through 06z, with a decreasing chance through the remainder of the
night as the cold front moves south through the area and a
northeasterly wind focuses the best chance of showers/storms across
southern and eastern NC on Wednesday.

Long Term: High pressure will dominate the remainder of the week,
leading to dry conditions and VFR.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...bsd/bs

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-201930-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HOT CONDITIONS...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES...
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ040-075-076-200300-
LEE   NC-CHATHAM   NC-MOORE   NC-
1000 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF LEE...WESTERN
CHATHAM AND NORTHEASTERN MOORE COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM EDT...

AT 1000 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR SILER CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SANFORD...SILER CITY...GOLDSTON...BROADWAY...CAMERON...GUM SPRINGS...
HARPERS CROSSROADS...LEMON SPRINGS...CUMNOCK AND TRAMWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 7935 3569 7955 3570 7954 3580 7937
      3552 7897 3541 7908
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 322DEG 19KT 3569 7941

77

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1044 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW RAEFORD           34.95N 79.24W
07/19/2016                   HOKE               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON POWERLINES. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

SC/BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1045 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE RAEFORD           34.98N 79.21W
07/19/2016                   HOKE               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

SC/BSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1047 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ088-200345-
CUMBERLAND   NC-
1047 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CUMBERLAND COUNTY
UNTIL 1145 PM EDT...

AT 1046 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FAYETTEVILLE...FORT BRAGG...POPE AFB...HOPE MILLS...SPRING LAKE...
EASTOVER...STEDMAN...WADE...AUTRYVILLE AND CEDAR CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 7893 3489 7893 3492 7896 3511 7904
      3520 7903 3523 7878 3506 7866 3499 7864
      3495 7861 3494 7857 3485 7851 3485 7883
      3483 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 329DEG 12KT 3512 7888

77