Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
203 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A light westerly flow aloft this weekend will give way to northwest
flow aloft next week as an upper level ridge strengthens over the
Central Plains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...

Central NC lies on the E/SE periphery of broad cyclonic flow aloft
over the OH/TN valley and central Appalachians. Seasonable
moisture,diurnal destabilization (albeit limited by cloud cover) and
DPVA attendant small amplitude waves tracking E/NE along the
southern periphery of the westerlies in TN/NC/VA have already (as of
noon) resulted in scattered shower development over the W/SW
Piedmont and Sandhills, with thunderstorms thus far been confined to
the Carolina coast where less cloud cover (stronger insolation) and
richer low-level moisture have already yielded moderate diurnal
destabilization (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). With early convective
development to the W/SW and broken/overcast cloud cover over much of
central NC, diurnal destabilization will be significantly affected,
especially in the W/SW Piedmont where 16Z SPC mesoanalysis indicated
500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 50-75 J/kg of CIN, compared to 1500-2000
J/kg of MLCAPE and no CIN along/east of the I-95 corridor. With the
above in mind, expect above normal chances for convection across the
entire area this afternoon and evening. Deep layer shear is progged
to increase to 20-30 kt this afternoon and evening along/west of Hwy
1 in closer vicinity to stronger flow aloft rounding the base of a
broad trough over the TN valley into the central Appalachians.
However, diurnal destabilization, low-level lapse rates and DCAPE
will all be at a minimum west of Hwy 1. East of Hwy 1 where moderate
destabilization is in progress, deep-layer shear will remain weak
(<= 20 kt), as will DCAPE (< 750 J/kg), with PWAT values AOA 2.00".
With the above in mind, expect little severe weather threat today
aside from the possibility of a brief/isolated wet downburst
along/east of the I-95 corridor in association with robust updrafts
(50+ KFT echo tops) capable of lofting 30+ dBZ precip cores above 40
KFT. In this type of environment (i.e. unorganized and short-lived
updrafts), any deep convection has the potential to produce a brief
downburst with 30-50 mph wind gusts. Given that numerous short-lived
updrafts may briefly achieve 50 KFT echo tops, lead time is
typically no greater than 5-10 mins, and that the temporal/spatial
magnitude of an associated downburst is small, warning issuance in
such a scenario is all-too-often counter productive. -Vincent

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday and Sunday Night/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...

The primary belt of westerlies will lift north of the region on
Sunday as the broad trough over the TN/OH valley this afternoon
lifts NE into New England. As a result, any small amplitude waves
tracking east along the southern fringe of the westerlies will
generally remain north of the region, though guidance suggests a
weak shear axis may stall over eastern/coastal NC, on the E/NE
periphery of a developing upper level ridge over the Deep South and
lower Midwest. As a result, expect scattered diurnal convection to
occur primarily along/east of the I-95 corridor, with chances
diminishing several hours after sunset (by midnight). Expect highs
in the upper 80s to 90F, lows in the lower 70s. -Vincent

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
As of 203 PM Saturday...

After the late weekend frontal passage, the frontal zone will be
along the coast with perhaps a lingering chance of a shower across
the south early Monday. We languish in an unsettled weak trof zone
beneath the westerlies with weak forcing but abundant moisture and
instability leading to slightly better than climatological (30-40%)
diurnal PoPs. Highs should reach lower 90s as low level flow
remains predominantly southwest with persistent 1440m thicknesses.

Our chance for stronger, more widespread convection will be on the
uptick from late Tuesday morning into Tuesday night as strong
ridging in the midwest amplifies and deepens the downstream trof
over the east coast. A stronger front will follow the deepening trof
south to greatly enhance low level shear concurrent with diurnal
instability and should result in well-organized and potentially
severe convection. Highs will again reach the lower 90s with some
lower readings possible in areas hindered by morning cloud or
shower coverage.

Post-fropa, we're looking at drying in the ensuing northwest flow
with diminished chances for precip Wednesday into the early weekend.
Of course, northwest flow brings its own uncertainty due to the
proclivity for downstream convection in the Midwest or Ohio Valley
to wander through, so will keep near climatological diurnal PoPs
each day. Slow modification of the airmass over the area will result
in a gradual warming trend, from climatological 88-92 on
Wednesday and Thursday to perhaps mid 90s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...

24-hr TAF Period: MVFR ceilings and scattered convection will be
possible at all terminals through this evening. VFR conditions are
expected after midnight, though sub-VFR stratus and/or fog may
develop prior to sunrise. Any fog/stratus is expected to lift by 12-
14Z Sunday, with VFR conditions otherwise prevailing until mid/late
afternoon when scattered convection will once again be possible at
all terminals, particularly RDU/FAY/RWI.

Looking ahead: A similar pattern characterized by above normal
chances for convection will persist through early/mid next week as
westerly flow aloft evolves into NW flow aloft. -Vincent

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Vincent
NEAR TERM...Vincent
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...mlm
AVIATION...Vincent

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
347 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-170800-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
347 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
745 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WADESBORO               34.97N 80.07W
07/16/2016                   ANSON              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

KRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
840 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW LOUISBURG          36.06N 78.34W
07/16/2016                   FRANKLIN           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON US 401 AT HILLSIDE VILLAGE DR.

&&

KRD

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