Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
325 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper disturbances aloft in combination with a hot and
buoyant air mass will cause periods of scattered convection across
central NC through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Friday...

Little change to earlier thinking. Strong heating has resulted in
DCAPE 1200-1400 J/kg across the region. With additional heating,
values as high as 1500 possible across the south and east. Aloft,
mid level lapse rates around 7 deg C/km being realized,
uncharacteristic for this time of year.  The buoyancy attributed to
the strong heating and the cool pool aloft will support the
development of scattered strong/severe storms late this afternoon in
the nw piedmont, and this evening across the remainder of central NC.
Expect storm structure to start out as multi-cellular but increasing
effective shear to near 30kts by 00Z suggest the potential for
storms to organize into broken lines with bowing segments and
attendant wind damage.

The conditions suggest that there is a good chance for numerous
reports of wind gusts between 50-60 mph and would not be surprised
if a spot or two reported a wind gusts of 65 mph or higher. In
addition, enough instability resides aloft to suggest that the
storms will produce an excessive amount of lightning. Finally, the
strongest cells may also be accompanied by hail the size of quarters
or ping pong balls.

Current indications are that the severe weather threat will be
greatest in the piedmont between 21z-01z, and in the coastal plain
and sandhills between 23z-03z. Should see an overall decrease in
storm coverage and intensity after 04z. Expect skies to become
mostly clear overnight with min temps in the 70-75 degree range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM Friday...

Central NC will be on the subsidence side of the departing MCV
Saturday morning. This should inhibit any convective development. By
afternoon, strong heating will aid to destabilize the atmosphere
with the best instability projected to lie across our far southern
and eastern counties. Thus, expect isolated-scattered storms to
development after 19z, though mainly confined to areas south of
highway 64 and east of I-95. Cannot rule out the potential for an
isolated wind gusts but lack of significant instability and
effective bulk shear on the order of 20-25kts should limit the
severe potential.

Most locations will experience plenty of sun which will warm temps
back into the low-mid 90s, with a spot or two in the southern
coastal plain and sandhills possibly reaching the upper 90s.
Afternoon heat indices projected to be in the upper 90s across the
nw to 101-104 degrees over the southern and se counties. Bulk of t-
storm activity will dissipate with loss of heating. A weak sfc front
will drift swd overnight into our region. At this time forcing
appears too weak to support any shower/storm development. Min temps
in the 70-75 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 PM Friday...

A front is progged to make its way south through central NC late
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. It is then expected to
stall in the vicinity of the NC/SC border. Models have come in
slightly drier on Sunday as the front sinks south of the region,
with only the extreme southern portions of the forecast area seeing
a slight chance of precip. Temps will be slightly cooler behind the
front, with highs ranging from near 90 degrees across the north to
low 90s further south. The front will meander near the region
through the early part of the week and therefore precip chances
should increase (closer to climo) as disturbances may track along
the stalled front.

Then, there is some disagreement with regards to an upper
disturbance/low slowly tracking towards the region from the west for
the middle of the week. There are also indications of a short wave
ridge expanding east over the Atlantic coast by the middle of the
week. Given the uncertainty, will trend towards climo with regards
to precip chances. Temps will also be close to normal, with highs in
the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Friday...

VFR conditions should prevail across central NC through 00Z Sunday,
except near scattered convection where MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR
visibilities may occur. Scattered convection expected to erupt over
the piedmont after 20Z, and traverse east-se into the coastal plain
and sandhills by early evening. In vicinity of the stronger storms,
sfc wind gusts 45-60kts possible along with hail a half inch to one
inch in diameter. The convective threat should diminish by 04Z.

VFR conditions expected to occur through Sunday night with scattered
afternoon-early evening convection probable. The probability of
afternoon convection may increase Monday-Wednesday. In addition, may
see the occurrence of early morning fog/low clouds by Monday morning
and associated ifr ceilings and visibility.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1048 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-073-074-076-083-090930-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-LEE-ANSON-
1048 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OR TRACK
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. IN ADDITION, THE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS HIGHEST BETWEEN THE HOURS OF
3 PM AND 10 PM, STARTING IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THEN SPREADING
EAST WITH TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

NCZ042-075-077-078-084>086-088-089-090930-
JOHNSTON-MOORE-HARNETT-WAYNE-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
SAMPSON-
1048 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OR TRACK
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. IN ADDITION, THE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF FREQUENT CLOUD-
TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS HIGHEST BETWEEN THE HOURS OF
5 PM AND 10 PM, STARTING IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
THEN SPREADING EAST WITH TIME.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 102 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
448 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

NCZ022-023-082130-
GUILFORD   NC-ALAMANCE   NC-
448 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
GUILFORD AND NORTHWESTERN ALAMANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 447 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER MONROETON...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF REIDSVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHEAST GREENSBORO...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...MCLEANSVILLE...
ELON COLLEGE...SUMMERFIELD...GIBSONVILLE...ALAMANCE...
LAKE TOWNSEND MARINA AND LAKE GUILFORD MACKINTOSH MARINA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 7957 3625 7949 3624 7926 3596 7950
      3625 7992 3626 7992
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 293DEG 25KT 3626 7977

WSS